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Bullfilter

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it felt like his country was gripped with a wasting illness, of despair or something not before seen.
Very well put.
How can a people used to the crushing weight of the world comprehend finding themselves atop it?”

“Well…” Anna paused, “you must find an answer, several answers, to those questions. Or you’ll have an empire of ash, at the absolute best.”
With these questions, even if answers are found the follow up questions tend be be even more wicked or the answers have difficult consequences :(
The core of the Ottoman Navy had been sunk in a few hours work
It was always likely to happen. Everything else aside, seamanship and gunnery were going to do them in, as it had been for well more than hundred years even against the Royal Navy’s next most proficient opponents.
After a year and a half of heavy fighting, it looked as though the British might win the war outside Europe after all.
Ah, but the victory will be hollow if it isn’t complemented by victory in the main theatre.
 

TheButterflyComposer

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Very well put.

There would have been a feeling of something being wrong by this point. Germany has known large wars before, and known defeat before. But this sort of industrial scale fighting and slaughter is going to be hitting them hard. Their economy and supply is already hollowed out by now, and will only get worse.

The question they will be grappling with for years to come is...this is sort of what our culture and people wanted, one last epic war to take command of Europe finally, and never be disadvantaged again.

What went wrong?

With these questions, even if answers are found the follow up questions tend be be even more wicked or the answers have difficult consequences :(

Yup. What went wrong is going to be a huge question for everyone post war, but more pressing in countries that were defeated and ruined for 'nothing'.

It's going to be a dark era for Germany.

It was always likely to happen. Everything else aside, seamanship and gunnery were going to do them in, as it had been for well more than hundred years even against the Royal Navy’s next most proficient opponents.

Yeah, I couldn't see it going any other way or being much of a chalkange for Radcliffe since he knows exactly where the ottomans are and the few options they have. The British probably do have to clear the harbour of scuttled ships, but it does mean they get the battleship back, and it's a big one.

The rest of the ottoman navy is in port along anatolia, and is stuck there pretty much, provided rhe RN keeps patrols up. Still, means the Med Fleet can pretty much be broken up and sent somewhere else now, as there are literally no other threats to the Entente left in the Sea, unless the Italians make an extremely unlikely choice and thus not only show up with their own navy buy free up the austrian fleet to do the same.

Ah, but the victory will be hollow if it isn’t complemented by victory in the main theatre.

Depends. Unlike everyone else in this war, the british have two primary concerns: their own empire continuing to dominate no matter what, and that the balance in Europe is maintained so far as possible, to protect the first priority.

What's changed in the year since the war started is the overall impression on all sides of the power weight of various countries involved. Yes, France was not quite the equal to Germany in all things, but they were supposed to be very close if not better militarily. Looking at the past year, they've slid in estimations from a top tier great power to the same level as Austria Hungary.

Meanwhile, Germany has been revealed to be even stronger than fears pre war. They are fighting Russia and France by themselves and winning, and have won against the Netherlands. And this strength is enough to pull all of britians enemies out of the woodwork to try their hand against the empire.

When it comes to post war, the UK will have a problem on their hands in that Germany is clearly predisposed to being stronger than most other European countries, yet also cannot be dismantled without making all of Europe vulnerable to either a chaotic Russia or a supremely vengeful France. With the inevitable collapse of Austria Hungary and the ottomans, the balance of power in Europe is gone and not coming back.

The stuff of british nightmares.
 
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TheButterflyComposer

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Sorry, missed the ottoman navy question.

Fixed.
 
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The Jäger War – How to Win a War New

TheButterflyComposer

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The Jäger War – How to Win a War
20th September 1915
The War Room was filled with smoke, whispers, and irritation.

There was much to be annoyed about.

Field Marshal von Ouster sat handkerchief in hand and cane by his side. He had bullied himself all the way from sickbed to office chair but had spent rather too much energy in the attempt. And as France remained not only in the war but reinforced with a swarm of Iberians, he was appearing dourer than usual.

Nearby, Hans Jorgen looked almost as exhausted. He had spent much of the summer attempting to supply the Polish Legions and maintain some form of scouting intelligence on Russian movements, tasks made even harder by his ostensible commander and friend being drafted to try and get the Austrians to do…anything…with the clear months they had.

As von Ouster the Younger stormed into the room, pausing to nod at Hindenburg and Ludendorff, before throwing himself down next to Hans, the latter reflected that things had seemed to be going so well not four months prior.

“Nothing?”

“Bugger all,” Ouster huffed. “I have some sympathy for the men, but their commanders leave something to be desired, and the Austrian industrial network is a mess. It is quite impossible for their armies to be moved quickly from the southern Balkans to the Russian frontline, without going all the way back to Vienna first.”

“Christ.”

“Just so. It really would be faster for them to defeat Serbia and then send everyone back than divert some troops now. Might as well see the bloody business through.”

“Quite bloody, I hear.”

“I’m not sure there will be many Serbians left before they’re through. Tenacious fighters, much like our Legion. They’re fighting for their homeland, and they know it. Rest assured, I’ve sent multiple frank reports back here demanding we never get involved in that fight, and to avoid any other Balkan entrances excepting on our side. It would be a nightmare.”

“Mm. Any chance of that?”

“Not whilst Serbia stands free. Would you want to go to war with the Austrians as your allies after the past year?”

“Point taken.”

“But you have hopes?” the Field Marshal’s gaze had focused on his son.

“Perhaps, sir. I’ve suggested the Austrians invade through Montenegro, a nation that doesn’t have the capacity to defend itself against the army that’s already on its doorstep. Then Austria can flank Serbia and put an end to this. With those two subdued, the only other Balkans state friendly to the Entente is Greece.”

“And their king is one of ours,” the Field Marshal nodded.

“Indeed, though that might not keep them out of this forever. The government and people are rather pro-British, or rather, they are rather pro-Atherleigh.”

“That man again,” the older man sighed. “I hate to make too much of him, but he really is an annoyance of ours.”

“Greece is locked in itself in regards to the war,” the younger Ouster continued. “Thus, we have room to manoeuvre. Bulgaria has a great deal of interest in Serbia, sticking one to the British and Greece. And Romania, whilst never great friends of Austria, has something to gain as well, lands in Russia and, perhaps more importantly, protection from a large Balkan alliance with claims on their land.”

Both other men nodded.

“I found various diplomats and officers in Vienna agreeable to my views, and suspect if the current Balkan war can be ended, we might have two new allies in the new year.”

“And ones that could threaten Russia, and bolster our own invasion, as well as the Ottomans…”

The Sultanate had been something of a mixed bag as an ally. Whilst they had, arguably, distracted more Entente troops than Austria had so far, they were much weaker. The recent naval battle about Cyprus was still filtering through from the stingy Ottoman Court, but it was clear that the Turks had been overly ambitious and already lost their naval bite.

The Mediterranean Sea was, once again, under Entente control, and the Royal Navy no doubt was realigning its own ships back to the Great Blockade now the continental Europeans could fill in their role in the sea. With whispers that the Dutch Pacific fleet was also making headway back through the Indian Ocean, time was not on the High Seas Fleet’s side. A conclusive strike would be required soon to follow up their success in the first half of the year.

“Have the Spanish made much impact on the front, sir? I’m afraid I haven’t heard much word from France.”

The Field Marshal grimaced. “No, but their presence makes our own less tenable. I have been…in talks with the war council and field marshals. Your friends in the East,” he indicated subtly to Hindenburg’s lot, “are of the mind that we should abandon our positions.”

“Excuse me?”

Hans raised a hand. “Not quite so bad as all that. The war in the East goes well whilst the war in the West has stalemated.” He shrugged apologetically at the Field Marshal, whose eyes flashed fiercely, “They don’t discount your leadership sir, but the war will be won in Russia, that is clear. So…”

“So, they wish to abandon the attempt on Paris, pull the frontline back dozens, perhaps a hundred miles!” The Field Marshal hissed. “A year of work. Half a million men lost.” He sat back and sighed. “I am beginning to consider their views. As much as it pains me, whilst the Netherlands is eminently defendable, our French positions are…less so. We could withdraw to degrees, to more solidly built and organised trenches and fortifications. Decrease the size of the front. Switch to pure defence. But…”

“But that comes with risk all of its own. What would happen if they attacked when we retreat? How will we ever get the land back and more when attack is so difficult? Can we afford to hand the enemy such a clear victory for free?” The younger Ouster mused and nodded. “I too worry about this idea. It is too risky. It sounds too much like invading the Netherlands did. An unnecessary risk that even if it succeeds, may put us at a long-term disadvantage anyway.”

“That order came from the Kaiser…” the Field Marshal said meaningfully, and all three gazed over at the notably absent seat at the head of the table, with the closest men too it being Hindenburg and his men.

“They are good men. Good soldiers. Great leaders,” Ouster reproached his father.

“I agree. I much prefer them to Wilhelm. But they are taking over, and you are going with them. As much as it pains me to say given the quality of the man we serve, we serve the Kaiser. We took oaths to that effect. We fight for the Reich; we don’t rule it. Not absolutely.”

“Maybe we should,” Ouster retorted. “The Reichstag have refused my recommendation for further rationing. The people will starve if we don’t overrule them.”

“The people are hungry now,” the older man replied. “And we have just ordered more men away from the farm and factory to war. How are they to feed themselves?”

“Hmm. Maybe there is merit to the idea of reducing the Western Front. But we are winning against Russia. We will win against Russia. And then the men can return home, or to the other front if the Entente refuse to treat with us after their obvious loss.”

“I doubt they shall agree. Did we not just refuse our own offer of settlement?”

“Because the politicians went behind our backs straight to the Kaiser! And they wanted a return to the pre-war state. What a ridiculous notion, what a dishonouring of our sacrifices. They should be in prison, not serving as our representatives.”

The old man grunted. “Well, we are in charge. Make of that what you will. I am loath to release my grip on Paris though. Take that and France falls. France falls, and the war is over, for us at least.”

The Ouster men looked at each other.

“Will you not come home to rest? I’m sure you would recover quicker in your own rooms.”

The older man showed a slight warmth in his response. “Anna worries so. I am fine. A few days more to satisfy the bone saws and I shall be free to return to my duty. Though,” he inclined his head, “I do not know where or what they shall take me in the coming months.”

“For our part, we will ride out again.”

“Already, Fred?” Hans said in surprise.

“Yes, Austria will keep now until either the end of winter or when they defeat the Serbs. It is time to remind the Russians why they fear us. We shall be ahead of Hindenburg’s advance. We need to push forward before the snows come.”

“I wish you luck, though I am sure you do not need it,” the Field Marshal struggled to his feet, both younger men standing automatically. “Good luck boys. Finish this bloody war, before we all end up doing something we may regret.”
 
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HistoryDude

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The focus will now be on the Eastern Front? Interesting move.

It's interesting that Ouster contemplated a military coup. I wonder if that will be used as ammunition politically later...
 
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TheButterflyComposer

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The focus will now be on the Eastern Front? Interesting move.

It's exactly what the germans did otl. Nothing really worked for them in the west, but Russia looked beatable.

Here, there's more balance either way, and more successes, but the calculus of war is similar. They simply can't fight a two front war. They have to pick one of them.

Would they really divert everything from the front they are 'winning' on to the other?

It's interesting that Ouster contemplated a military coup.

It's a reminder of how thoroughly militaristic the Reich and especially the prussian nobility running it was. And a reminder that Ouster is a product of his environment.

As loyal as Hindenburg was to the Kaiser, and he was very loyal, asking permission from the guy in exile before he ran for president, Hindenburg and his officers (especially Ludendorf) were running a miltiary dictatorship by the end of the war. The Kaiser was head of state and 'commander in chief' but it meant bugger all.

Everyone in that war room knows full well they are the ones running Germany now, and soon will be running things absolutely. They might have trouble with it. They might have issues with it.

But they are all complicit in everything Germany does from now on.

I wonder if that will be used as ammunition politically later...

Almost certainly not, or at least, not by anyone who matters in the way you're thinking. Everyone who's part of the conservstive establishment already know, because they were all in on it to varying degrees.

The reichstag know, but no one will believe them/like them enough to listen. The stab in the back myth was potent for a reason, and everyone in the old establishment has good reason to promote that lie (since otherwise it means admitting they were the ones in charge).

And Ouster and his military clique know. How they all reflect back on that time years and decades later, will, of course, be a story to tell.

Bringing it back to the top however, there are reasons why the miktiary did not blink at nazis taking over, and mostly reserved their anger for being overshadowed by the SS and SA. All their plots to kill/replace Hitler were about creating their own miltiary dictatorship, as they were before Hitler rose to power in the 20s.

One of the things Ouster and all Germany will be grappling with is the conflict between democracy and authoritarianism. He is trained in one, and knows its end results. Whilst he will try the other, it's not a natural fit for him or his people.
 

Bullfilter

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“Good luck boys. Finish this bloody war, before we all end up doing something we may regret.”
Oh, that horse has already bolted and is getting further away every day.
 

TheButterflyComposer

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TheButterflyComposer

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Pictures will hopefully be added soon. We have now fully caught up with both sides of the war, and have the balkans and Eastern offensives to report on before going into 1916.

Feels like we've covered tons already, but we're still not two years into the Great War, and things are going to get an awful lot worse for all concerned before long. Especially Ouster specifically.
 

J_Master

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The Field Marshal grimaced. “No, but their presence makes our own less tenable. I have been…in talks with the war council and field marshals. Your friends in the East,” he indicated subtly to Hindenburg’s lot, “are of the mind that we should abandon our positions.”
It's exactly what the germans did otl. Nothing really worked for them in the west, but Russia looked beatable.

Here, there's more balance either way, and more successes, but the calculus of war is similar. They simply can't fight a two front war. They have to pick one of them.

Would they really divert everything from the front they are 'winning' on to the other?
It's interesting that this is being considered so obviously in fall 1915. The Germans irl only retreated to the Siegfried Stellung in 1917. Yes, the ground is hard-fought for, but if you do a proper enough job in destroying anything of worth, it'll be useless to the French war effort and may be even a general drain on their economy. You don't have to abandon the position on the Channel, you'll still have bases for U-boots to operate the direct convoy route between England and France. It's also a place from which you could seriously experiment with a strategic bombardment campaign on England, which would force them into makes offensive moves, if only for morale reasons. 1916 was the year Germany went on the offensive again in the west after being focused on the east for 1915. Here the offensive attitude in the west never really stopped over the course of 1915, so year of rest in the west, forcing Germany's enemies into costly attacks and securing the Balkans and putting Russia on the ropes would be the best thing Germany could do in this situation.
 

TheButterflyComposer

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It's interesting that this is being considered so obviously in fall 1915. The Germans irl only retreated to the Siegfried Stellung in 1917.

Yes, it's one of those 'why didn't they think of this/do this earlier' things that, due to the context of the AAR, they're pushing through with now. It took a good 6 months in 1916 to build the line but it was time well spent, and the Entente never really broke through until the german army itself broke in 1918.

Yes, the ground is hard-fought for, but if you do a proper enough job in destroying anything of worth, it'll be useless to the French war effort and may be even a general drain on their economy.

If they can do a good enough job in the retreat, the Entente will be spending a good few months picking through booby traps and utterly ruined miles of land, yes.

You don't have to abandon the position on the Channel, you'll still have bases for U-boots to operate the direct convoy route between England and France.

The Dutch u boat bases have been very useful for the german navy, and have proven their worth already. Now they have the goal of sinking as much/inconveniencing the RN as much as possible, having sub bases that put most of the UK dockyards comfortably within their range is going to help massively. Sure, ships Sunk in Dock are easily fixed, but you do have to fix them. Protect the docks, force men and resources back to keep them going etc.

It's also a place from which you could seriously experiment with a strategic bombardment campaign on England, which would force them into makes offensive moves, if only for morale reasons.

Well...the germans have had practice with Paris. But the advance only really got as far as Flanders, which whilst close enough to bombard Kent, isn't going to really hurt anyone.

The threat of it, along with airship raids (we'll get to them) are going to make the public panic of course, but the british are already going to be holding flanders as their number one target, because its their entrance into the Netherlands (and really, they need to get at least a sliver of that land back to fight on).

1916 was the year Germany went on the offensive again in the west after being focused on the east for 1915. Here the offensive attitude in the west never really stopped over the course of 1915, so year of rest in the west, forcing Germany's enemies into costly attacks and securing the Balkans and putting Russia on the ropes would be the best thing Germany could do in this situation.

Yeah, we have a bit of a different situation. The western front didn't die down after the Netherlands was taken but it did slow down a bit. There have still been pushes towards and push back from Paris, but not much else. I suspect rhe germans would accept their 'good enough' gains of 1915 along with 1914, and dig in/give some of it up in order to make their lives easier. They KNOW that a large attack will be coming in early 1916 once the iberians and British armies come into play again, and need to prep for that, whilst not robbing their more promising fronts of attention.

As much as they downplay and rubbish it, Austria have been pushing Serbia back, and it would be far better for the central powers to lock down enemy balkans nations and make friends with the rest before the allies attempt to use their naval advantage to try and help Serbia out. If and when that victory comes, Russia suddenly has even more problems.

And of course, Russia is the main show now. Hindenburg's faction is ascendant, the war in the east is not only going well but contains all the Reich's pre war goals for victory, and promises to end the war overall once they win there. Without Russia, the Ottomans can throw everything into slowing down the british whilst the balkan nations and Austria can join Germany with all their power on the Western Front. From what they've seen so far, a single front war against rhe west is fully winnable.

Thus, Ludendorf pushes his plan early, the Hindenburg line beings to be built (though where it is I'm not quite sure yet. Feel free to add a map suggestion because the game's no doubt will be a bit wrong), and everyone else sort of has to role with it.
 

J_Master

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Well...the germans have had practice with Paris. But the advance only really got as far as Flanders, which whilst close enough to bombard Kent, isn't going to really hurt anyone.
It's not the big guns I'm interested in. I'm moreso interested in German experimentation with a aerial strategic bombardment campaign, being fought with zeppelins, biplane strategic bombers, bi- and triplanes which may also be deployed from said zeppelins. Maybe just me looking a bit too much into cool imagery, but Germany is looking for unconventional ways to hurt Britain. U-boots to hit the supply lines, a air campaign to hit the industry itself, a WWI attempt at a Blitz isn't too far out of German thinking I'd say.
Thus, Ludendorf pushes his plan early, the Hindenburg line beings to be built (though where it is I'm not quite sure yet. Feel free to add a map suggestion because the game's no doubt will be a bit wrong), and everyone else sort of has to role with it.
1683657931306.png

Very rough idea, the maximum extent of German positions, which is not the one they'd be retreating from, but still close enough, and then a line encompassing such classic WWI names as Verdun, Rheims, Ieper, Kamerijk and whatnot. Difference in battlefield names should already indicate that this WWI is a very different beast
 

TheButterflyComposer

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current war situation in Europe:

pobT36rhj
Next update are the other major

Very rough idea, the maximum extent of German positions, which is not the one they'd be retreating from, but still close enough,

I don't believe they got that far into North Western France along the Channel ports. I feel like that sort of success would lead to a much more violent British offensive much sooner, and also the RN can literally blast the trenches if they're that close...

That being said, this looks about right everywhere else. And I may be restricted by the map somewhat. I do expect the german advance into flanders and North Eastern France to have gone better than OTL, alongside the better attack on the centre.

and then a line encompassing such classic WWI names as Verdun, Rheims, Ieper, Kamerijk and whatnot. Difference in battlefield names should already indicate that this WWI is a very different beast

Indeed. Eastern France is in ruins, some big cities got torched, and most of their pre war fortifications outside of the Paris region itself are under German occupation. There may well be bleeding at verdun, but it will be the Entente trying to get it back, not the OTL opposite attack.

And of course, the French have not made any headway into alsace Lorraine yet. The war is being fought entirely on French territory and the Dutch border (so far).

It's not the big guns I'm interested in. I'm moreso interested in German experimentation with a aerial strategic bombardment campaign, being fought with zeppelins, biplane strategic bombers, bi- and triplanes which may also be deployed from said zeppelins.

That...IS an interesting idea. I was thinking about zeppelins because the Germans had them already and they were, before the British invented incendiary bullets, invincible in the air.

However, they also have the very flat, very open ground of the entire low countries to play with in regards to experimenting with flying machines, and a whole host of targets to shoot for.

Probably won't be getting a (succesful) blitz on London but they absolutely could dominate the airspace of the western front, bomb French railways and destroy as much of Paris as they can...hmm.

Maybe just me looking a bit too much into cool imagery, but Germany is looking for unconventional ways to hurt Britain. U-boots to hit the supply lines, a air campaign to hit the industry itself, a WWI attempt at a Blitz isn't too far out of German thinking I'd say.

Yes, yes. I think so too. Wanted to write an offhand scene at some point where Oustet and Rictofen offhandedly greet each other, implication being theyre old friends who just don't interact being in totally different theatres...but yeah.

The british being aware of the utility of scout planes in the desert and on the sea, and the germans going into heavier machines to actually attack and strike at things...hmm.
 

TheButterflyComposer

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Question for the audience:

When do you think the US will/had passed the point of no return after which it would defeat the British Empire in war excusing Horrific luck or random acts of god/incompetence?

Both for OTL and for TTL because I think for the latter, it's going to happen at some point during the main time period of the AAR...
 

Bullfilter

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Question for the audience:

When do you think the US will/had passed the point of no return after which it would defeat the British Empire in war excusing Horrific luck or random acts of god/incompetence?

Both for OTL and for TTL because I think for the latter, it's going to happen at some point during the main time period of the AAR...
Hmm, not a date so much as time elapsed after being provoked into a large scale industrial and military mobilisation that had broad bipartisan national support. Which I think is partly dependent on the nature of the start of such a war.

The reaction to Pearl Harbor, for example, was visceral and had mass support. Even Lindbergh stopped carping and complaining! Even then, it still took a while to fully turn things around (starting with Midway), another year or two before they were getting on top, and all up almost four years to win, which included using nukes for the coup de grace. Though to be fair, while also doing D Day (with British support of course) and winning in Europe.

I’d have thought that the UK + Commonwealth would be a more powerful and longer lasting adversary than Japan. Depends of course whether either side is already fighting or may be then attacked in a war on two fronts and how that was going.

My biggest question would be the pretext itself and how much popular and political support the war would have in the US. Would they be the aggressors or defenders? How long could it be sustained for if it was clearly well short of a grand crusade against “backstabbing Japanese imperialists doing dastardly attacks and crazed Nazis bent on world conquest”?

What would the objectives be for such a war? Canada? A few colonies? The destruction of the Royal Navy as an effective fighting force? A massive transatlantic invasion and conquest of the British Isles and imposition of a US puppet government? If a war of relatively unprovoked aggression, how long or after how many losses could such a war be sustained before political and popular opposition began to erode support?

But the cheating answer is: a couple of days after the US had developed operational atomic weapons and the willpower and means to deliver them on multiple sites in the UK itself. Would they do that? Or in this alt world is the US being run by some Hitler analogue who thinks it would be fair game to nuke the land of fish and chips, Byron, Shakespeare and George Formby? OK, Formby may be a valid casus belli at that. :D
 
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TheButterflyComposer

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My biggest question would be the pretext itself and how much popular and political support the war would have in the US. Would they be the aggressors or defenders?

As the British don't really have any reason to go to war with the US ever again, the US would be the ones actively starting the fight, yes. However, they could be provoked. Anything from blocking them from free trade/trade routes (which could be China or currently the entire continental Europe) to building up Canada/Mexico.

Canada joining the UK in whatever capacity, I.e. openly proclaiming the intention that the UK is NEVER going to leave or decolonise north amercia eventually, could very well do it too.

How long could it be sustained for if it was clearly well short of a grand crusade against “backstabbing Japanese imperialists doing dastardly attacks and crazed Nazis bent on world conquest”?

Probably something along the lines of the US being treated abominably by the british. They're a great power, and yet the British are intent on them not trading freely or even having a solid defence against their weaker neighbours to the north and south, whilst also hemming in amercian interests in North amercia and everywhere else.

What would the objectives be for such a war? Canada? A few colonies? The destruction of the Royal Navy as an effective fighting force? A massive transatlantic invasion and conquest of the British Isles and imposition of a US puppet government? If a war of relatively unprovoked aggression, how long or after how many losses could such a war be sustained before political and popular opposition began to erode support?

Absolute best case for the US (practically speaking too) is the british out of the amercias in the same way everyone else is.

Canada becomes indepednant (its never going to want to join the US), and maybe a new border deal (though I think this might actually be unlikely if only because the Amercians don't actually need the border changed, just who's on the other side of it).

The Spanish empire broken up and placed under US administration as per OTL.

The British probably keep their carribbean holdings and Southern amercian stuff for now but have to break ties with Mexico.

Hawaii comes under the amercian sphere again and the amercians get their Pacific territories back (and reparations for taking them in the first place).

Further reparations for any damage caused, with the goal being making the British pay enough that they won't be able to rebuild and try again any time soon.

This is the ideal.

They'd probably settle for booting the British from Canada and getting Cuba and Puerto rico. They can come for the rest later.

As for how to sustain it? The same way Japan, Germany and everyone whose ever fought the empire has. Take them down once, and you get to be king of the hill and rich beyond your wildest dreams. Thing is, the amercians have the power and money to make that happen in a way the others couldn't have, and everyone knows it. The US is a fortress surrounded by vast oceans, with a huge population, awesome amounts of natural wealth and farmland, and no real threat of any sort except for British Canada and the Royal Navy. Destroy those, and they win.

Sure, it's failed twice before. But they only have to succeed once to become top dog, and they'd be much harder to knock off the perch than the UK is.

But the cheating answer is: a couple of days after the US had developed operational atomic weapons and the willpower and means to deliver them on multiple sites in the UK itself.

It would be no mean feat. The bomb would have to be dropped from a bomber, which means the plane needs to take off and fly pretty close to the UK.

In this era, that means either fighting across the Atlantic and sitting an aircraft carrier off the coast, or having France conquered or as an ally.

So...very difficult indeed given the tech of the time.
 
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Historywhiz

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In OTL, the US, despite getting close in the 1850s before the massive half-decade of unpleasantness occurred, surpassed the British Empire in several key industrial metrics in the decade between 1890 and 1900. The only reason why this was not more obvious was that given fairly low tensions between the two and British free trade policies, the US economy developed to incentivize production of agricultural implements and foodstuffs, oil products, consumer goods, and various electrical and manufacturing components while leaving shipbuilding, arms manufacturing, and many heavy industry fields to the British (OTL it was WWI that really let the US get out of Britain’s shadow there). Now, directly competing with the British in these sectors would have delayed things considerably, as would the existence of Imperial preference tariffs and the absence of most of that British money that had built so much of the US economy.

I think that in OTL, assuming a POD after the historical WWI that sees Anglo-American relations chill considerably, the US can probably defeat the UK through intense attrition starting in 1930, with the length and violence of the conflict decreasing the later it starts due to the increased advantages the US would pick up in the meantime.

TTL? I’m not nearly as sure. On the one hand, not only is there less British money in the American economy, not only is there less trade between the two markets, not only has the US been forced to maintain larger standing armed forces and defense industries at the extent of its industrial growth elsewhere, but it’s been denied the massive iron mines of the Michigan upper peninsula and all the timber and sulfur and copper in Minnesota and Wisconsin, plus the American Civil War was probably a bit more even and drawn out of an affair. It does have some significant advantages over OTL in that the US Navy would probably be considerably larger at a war start and the US army would be better able to ramp up in size, but it isn’t as capable of burying the British through sheer weight of numbers and output as it is in OTL. I think the US could actually reasonably expect to field a force capable of defeating the empire by 1925, but it would take well into the 1940’s to reach that same level of overwhelming advantage in industry that I think they had in 1930 OTL.
 
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Depends on what the casus belli is. If Britain did something that offended the American public, a war would be easy to justify, especially in this alternate timeline where there is a much greater degree of Anglo-American tension.

Trying to push around this new democratic Germany might do it, if they're not subtle about it. OTL, the US approved Versailles, but similarly harsh terms imposed by Britain might anger them if they get no say (especially because of Wilson's self-determination thing, which certain things - like the Saar - kind of spit on).

As for when their military would be able to defeat the UK, that really depends on where the battle is and who else each side is fighting. If the UK is distracted in Europe, the US could probably pull of an invasion of their North American or Pacific territories, even during World War I. If they can focus all of their attention on the war, there's parity in the latter stages of OTL's World War 2, and the US definitely had the upper hand after they got nukes.

Mind, one of the big reasons why the US was so influential in OTL's world wars was because they were a large, industrial economy that wasn't being exhausted by the war. Essentially, they had more people to sacrifice because they weren't at war.
 
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as would the existence of Imperial preference tariffs

Well, the EMPIRE was under imperial preference either by voluntary settler colony measures or more stringent stuff in the rest, but the UK did not reciprocate because it was free trade all the way OTL.

Are they more protectionist here? Mm...maybe, though free trade generally supports the most productive force, and that's the Brirish, even moreso than OTL. Did they specifically bar US trading? Probably, throughout the 30s and 40s OTL there were a ton of disagreements about it. No doubt TTL, there were some much hotter debates and incidents throughout the first half of the 19th century before things quietened down for a few decades.

the absence of most of that British money that had built so much of the US economy.

Is still there, definitely. The city of London is not the personal fiefdom of the government, and the US was an absolute goldmine of investment, moreso than even the colonies were. There is absolutely high amounts of British creditors who own a ton of stuff in the US from mines to railroads.

Difference being this is not viewed as a good thing on either side, and the federal and state governments no doubt have taken various measures to curtail such dealings. Investment probably cut off during the 1890s due to the war, which would have hurt the US as much as the actual war did, and probably hasn't recovered to pre war levels before 1914.

I think that in OTL, assuming a POD after the historical WWI that sees Anglo-American relations chill considerably, the US can probably defeat the UK through intense attrition starting in 1930, with the length and violence of the conflict decreasing the later it starts due to the increased advantages the US would pick up in the meantime.

The problem I had with working out rhe population of Canada and the US TTL is its so heavily dependant on immigration that both are probably quite a bit different from OTL. The US probably is smaller than OTL, possibly by tens of millions of people because not only did the Irish dysphoria (a good ten million by itself) not happen, most immigration would have been to Canada anyway.

So Canada may be closer to 30 or 40 million rather than the low 20s I put it at here, and the US potentially not a few million sort at 85, but tens of millions short.

It's still going to have massive population booms and well over a hundred million eventually, but the US might have had a much poorer showing of immigration in the 19th century (doubking and doubling again its population OTL), which provided the foundation for its population to double again in the 20th.

With the UK itself having over 50 million citizens, Canada having over 20, and the rest of the Empire atop, attrition will still work in the US' favour but not nearly as well as it would OTL.

TTL? I’m not nearly as sure. On the one hand, not only is there less British money in the American economy, not only is there less trade between the two markets, not only has the US been forced to maintain larger standing armed forces and defense industries at the extent of its industrial growth elsewhere, but it’s been denied the massive iron mines of the Michigan upper peninsula and all the timber and sulfur and copper in Minnesota and Wisconsin, plus the American Civil War was probably a bit more even and drawn out of an affair. It does have some significant advantages over OTL in that the US Navy would probably be considerably larger at a war start and the US army would be better able to ramp up in size, but it isn’t as capable of burying the British through sheer weight of numbers and output as it is in OTL. I think the US could actually reasonably expect to field a force capable of defeating the empire by 1925, but it would take well into the 1940’s to reach that same level of overwhelming advantage in industry that I think they had in 1930 OTL.

I think so. OTL, there were plans on both sides in case war broke out (it was a pretty tense interim 20s and 30s) because the relationship between the two had so inalienable flipped between debtor and creditor, exporter and importer.

TTL, it depends whether the US joins the war at all, when and on who's side. As unpopular as it might be, the germans are more despotic, more openly commiting war crimes and an alliance of convenience with the British means helping out France (US best friend) and potentially getting astonishing amounts of money from the british out of desperation.

In terms of interventionist, the war offers that, and the more obvious opposite approach of 'get even with the British on the cheap' if they side with Germany.

OTL, the US approved Versailles, but similarly harsh terms imposed by Britain might anger them if they get no say (especially because of Wilson's self-determination thing, which certain things - like the Saar - kind of spit on).

I doubt Wilson will ever be president. As for the rest, it really depends again on how involved the US is, and where.