I certainly don't have your credentials and I don't really believe in being tightly conservative with my opinions. Before I begin, I want to make it clearer on what I was talking about. Large scale settlements, starting with Ingólfur Arnarson, begin what I would consider the start of organized settlement in Iceland. But, before that, we have:
1. Dicuil, Irish monk and geographer. His "De mensura Orbis terrae" is a geographical work that mentions a place called "Thule" in the north. While Thule has been used to describe any number of places beyond the known borders of the world, I strongly suspect Dicuil's Thule was truly Iceland. The Faroe Islands were already settled by his time and I don't believe his expedition stopped at only at the Faroes. The Faroes were clearly not "Thule" in his mind, not with what knowledge he had of the islands. An assumption. I do a lot of that.
2. Kverkarhellir Cave would be the location of those crosses you mention. Radiocarbon dating gives the small, probably monastic settlement, a vague guess of "around 800". It could be much later or much earlier than that. I've read about more radiocarbon dates being pushed back rather than pushed forward, so another assumption for sure, but not a completely blind one. Not that much of a stretch to think that monks living on the Faroes traveled further north, probably with or after other small groups.
3. Recent digs at Hafnir give a date anywhere from 770 to 870 for what was a singular cabin. Another wide margin of error in time but between even between what was lost to the ages and what was built over, we can make some well founded assumptions.
Iceland was known to some people in the south. Those living in the Faroes surely must have known about another, larger island to the north. Probably known to some in Ireland and Scotland as well. I don't see why there couldn't be small scale, singular attempts to settle the island. Not a true settling like the Norse did in the 800's but something more sporadic, often temporary. I expect that further digs in Iceland would slowly start to add more and more evidence for earlier, smaller, attempts to live there.
Thank you, now we are close to being on the same page on this.
That Iceland was occasionally visited and vaguely known by the Celtic inhabitants of Britain seems like a reasonable guess to me. Also that there may consequently have been occasional short-lived attempts to settle the island. Maybe Iceland really was Thule. Archaeology may eventually stumble upon something that will confirm this. That would be a very interesting discovery.
There is another kind of scientific evidence which would seem to rule out major settlement of Iceland before the late 800's: pollen studies from soil samples. This involves analysing the type and number of pollen from plant species present in each layer in the soil. The chronology is determined by ash layers -- they are identifiable layers from specific volcanic eruptions that have been dated by geologists. Icelandic pollen studies indicate clearly that until the late 800's it's "business as usual" for the vegetation on the island but after that there is a sudden change towards sharp reduction of forest and increase of grass. The obvious explanation is human settlement. If there were people living on the island before this then their presence had very limited environmental impact, meaning that it could only have been small-scale habitation.
But regardless of when the island was first settled and by whom, it's clear that the eventual settlement involved lots of people of British celtic origin. Modern genetic research of Icelanders has confirmed this and heck, with all the redheads here it's pretty hard to deny it
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