The Backer Beta Manual said the following:
"Your base chance to hit with a ranged attack is 65% + 2.5% per point of Gunnery skill. This is then reduced for each point of Difficulty. The first 10 points of Difficulty reduce your chance to hit by 5% each. All points past 10 reduce your chance by 2% each."
However, the real base chance to hit with a ranged attack was 75%, not 65%, with + 5% per two points of Gunnery skill. Odd skill points don't seem to increase hit chance, although this may just be a display thing rather than the real hit chance.
I'm a little fuzzy on what happens at and beyond 10 difficulty points (percent hit chances are only shown rounded to 5% increments), but based on the json files I believe each difficulty after 10 is supposed to count for 2.5% hit chance reduction, not 2%.
Sources of difficulty points:
Target shut down from heat: -4
At least 15 meters higher than target (bonus doesn't stack multiple times): -1
Laser accuracy: -1
Arm mounted weapon: -1
Your 'Mech is overheated: +1
Your 'Mech was hit with a PPC since its last turn: +1
This weapon was fired last turn and is an AC/2 or AC/5: +1
Target Size (Medium): +1
Target Size (Light): +2
This weapon was fired last turn and is an AC/10 or AC/20: +2
Line of sight to target obstructed: +2
This weapon is damaged: +2
Evasive (per evasive pip): +2
Your 'Mech is within a Mineral Field: +2
Indirect fire penalty (tactics 1-2): +3, (tactics 3-5): +2, (tactics 6-8): +1, (tactics 9+): 0
Your 'Mech just stood up: +4
Target within a Mineral Field: +4
Target at Long range: +4
Target inside Minimum weapon range: +8
Also note that there's no such thing as negative difficulty, it caps out at 0. I.e. if you have a laser weapon on your arm (-2), and no positive modifiers, your final difficulty modifier is 0, not -2.
It's interesting to note that a pilot with tactics 6+ who has an obstructed line of sight to a target (+2 penalty) can't choose to instead take an indirect fire shot at the same target from the same position for just a -1 penalty (or 0 if tactics were 9+). In this case, a fully obstructed shot would have a better chance to hit than a partially obstructed shot, which doesn't make a lot of sense.
And just reiterating: this is all from the beta. It may have changed drastically in the six months or so since the beta was built. For example, we've already seen evidence of at least one difficulty modifier having changed slightly in the final game: the mercenary campaign video briefly showed the Barracks, and showed both a 3-tactics pilot and a 4-tactics pilot. This demonstrated that the "-1 indirect fire penalty" has been moved to a tactics 4 skill, from its previous place in the beta as a tactics 3 skill.
"Your base chance to hit with a ranged attack is 65% + 2.5% per point of Gunnery skill. This is then reduced for each point of Difficulty. The first 10 points of Difficulty reduce your chance to hit by 5% each. All points past 10 reduce your chance by 2% each."
However, the real base chance to hit with a ranged attack was 75%, not 65%, with + 5% per two points of Gunnery skill. Odd skill points don't seem to increase hit chance, although this may just be a display thing rather than the real hit chance.
I'm a little fuzzy on what happens at and beyond 10 difficulty points (percent hit chances are only shown rounded to 5% increments), but based on the json files I believe each difficulty after 10 is supposed to count for 2.5% hit chance reduction, not 2%.
Sources of difficulty points:
Target shut down from heat: -4
At least 15 meters higher than target (bonus doesn't stack multiple times): -1
Laser accuracy: -1
Arm mounted weapon: -1
Your 'Mech is overheated: +1
Your 'Mech was hit with a PPC since its last turn: +1
This weapon was fired last turn and is an AC/2 or AC/5: +1
Target Size (Medium): +1
Target Size (Light): +2
This weapon was fired last turn and is an AC/10 or AC/20: +2
Line of sight to target obstructed: +2
This weapon is damaged: +2
Evasive (per evasive pip): +2
Your 'Mech is within a Mineral Field: +2
Indirect fire penalty (tactics 1-2): +3, (tactics 3-5): +2, (tactics 6-8): +1, (tactics 9+): 0
Your 'Mech just stood up: +4
Target within a Mineral Field: +4
Target at Long range: +4
Target inside Minimum weapon range: +8
Also note that there's no such thing as negative difficulty, it caps out at 0. I.e. if you have a laser weapon on your arm (-2), and no positive modifiers, your final difficulty modifier is 0, not -2.
It's interesting to note that a pilot with tactics 6+ who has an obstructed line of sight to a target (+2 penalty) can't choose to instead take an indirect fire shot at the same target from the same position for just a -1 penalty (or 0 if tactics were 9+). In this case, a fully obstructed shot would have a better chance to hit than a partially obstructed shot, which doesn't make a lot of sense.
And just reiterating: this is all from the beta. It may have changed drastically in the six months or so since the beta was built. For example, we've already seen evidence of at least one difficulty modifier having changed slightly in the final game: the mercenary campaign video briefly showed the Barracks, and showed both a 3-tactics pilot and a 4-tactics pilot. This demonstrated that the "-1 indirect fire penalty" has been moved to a tactics 4 skill, from its previous place in the beta as a tactics 3 skill.
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