Timur vs The Ming

[Elias Tarfarius]

The first time I saw this topic brought up was on some random Chinese English language message board yesterday. I found it quite intriguing.

1405 - Timur sets out from Samarkand for his greatest campaign yet, the conquest of China! But (unfortunately or fortunately, most likely the latter) he dies before the expedition is even over the mountains. His last orders are for the army to march on, but without his iron will behind them, they soon give up and march home.

And now for almost every professional historian's most disliked question...

What if?

Timur had not died, eventhough he was in his 80's... (who says Medieval people didn't live long) or what if the army had pushed on to the East. Would they have been able to beat the armies of the 40 year old Ming dynasty? How would the arms and tactics of the two arms match up. Would Timur's armoured cavalry have any advantage over the Ming as they had against the Persians, Golden Horde, Mamlukes, and even the Ottomans?

Inquiring minds what to know.

ET

 

[Yakman]

He would've ridden right over them.

the Ming wouldn't have stood a chance.

 

[Faeelin]

He would've ridden right over them.

the Ming wouldn't have stood a chance.

Ya, right.

The Yongle Emperor wasn't a bad general, and he's ruling millions of subjects who learned how to defeat and drive out the Mongols.

 

[Hulaoguan]

1405 onwards? Hmm. Interesing thread. First some info on the Chinese side of the story.

Timur would have faced one of the most meglomaniac, aggressive and authoritarian Chinese emperors ever. Zhu Di, known historically as emperor Ming Cheng Zu, or the Yongle emperor.

He was the emperor who just seized the throne from his nephew a few years ago in a bloody civil war. He was the emperor who sent Zheng He on his expeditions ( also in 1405). The emperor who repaired the great wall, who shifted the Ming capital to Beijing , who warred against the Tartars. He would be a worthy match to Timur.

The Ming military record against the Tartars were pretty uneven. The key security threat to China this time was from a newly unified Tartar state in the north. ( the Chagatai? ). In 1409, after the murder of a Ming envoy, Yong Le despacthed 100,000 troops against the tartars. That army was whipped out. Yong Le then personally led 500,000 in a punitive campaign in 1410 which defeated the Tartars. He was to lead 4 other expeditions to the north, dying on the fifth in 1424.

I am not sure on the tech difference between the Ming and Timur. But I would assume that the Timurs were more advanced than the Tartar which the Ming faced so often. Ming certainly had the numbers. And with Yongle at the helm, a invasion by Timur would be one of the most titanic clash in Asian history.

 

[Yakman]

If Timur were to march on the Ming, he would have made an alliance with the Mongols, who were regathering strength. I doubt Yongle would've been a formidable opponent than Bayazid.

 

[unmerged(7537)]

If Timur were to march on the Ming, he would have made an alliance with the Mongols, who were regathering strength. I doubt Yongle would've been a formidable opponent than Bayazid.

Which Mongols?
Do you mean the scattered remnants of the Yuan Dynasty, hiding in Qaraqorum from the Ming armies?
Or the remnants of the Chagatai Khanate, which had been repeatedly torn by civil wars, and wasn't in the shape to resist Timur in the first place?

 

[Yakman]

They were hardly hiding in Karakorum. they forced Yongle to mount several campaigns against them.

 

[Faeelin]

If Timur were to march on the Ming, he would have made an alliance with the Mongols, who were regathering strength. I doubt Yongle would've been a formidable opponent than Bayazid.

Zhu Di served much of his life in the saddle, and had thousands of mongols who fought for him. He built the Great Wall, sponsored the expeditions, and went on several campaigns against the Mongols.

And you think he'll be a pushover why?

 

[Yakman]

Not a pushover. None of Timur's opponents were pushovers. But he was such a badass that he made them LOOK like pushovers.

Give him another five years of health and he would've been sitting in nanjing.

 

[Hulaoguan]

Not a pushover. None of Timur's opponents were pushovers. But he was such a badass that he made them LOOK like pushovers.

Give him another five years of health and he would've been sitting in nanjing.

Nah. Not under Yongle. Probably not under Zhu Yuan Zhang (Ming's founding emperor either). I can't garantee the results under any other Ming emperors though.

If Timur had come 5 years early he would have found China under civil war when Zhu Di was busy fighting his nephew for the throne. At that time Zhu Di was just a rebel prince based in Beijing. Timur may had a chance then. He had no chance after Zhu Di consolidated his power and had the whole of China under his command.

 

[Yakman]

That wasn't much of a civil war. Yongle had the only good units and his nephew was an effeminate who inspired exactly zero confidence. Remember, Yongle roused the border princes who his father had raised from his captains. He had the veterans and the hard fighters at his command while his nephew had only the garrison troops of central china. It's not hard to see who was going to win that struggle.

 

[Arilou]

It would be a damn cool thing to see though We need more games where you can play as timur!

 

[unmerged(23019)]

It probably is worth mentioning that China was not the first target of the campaign. Before attacking China, Timur was going to overrun the Eastern Chagatais of Mughalistan. His army would therefore not even be entering China fresh.

After Timur's death, his commanders agreed to abort the plan on China, but thought they could still take Mughalistan. When the succession crisis turned messy, they got rid of that plan, too.

 

[unmerged(345)]

apologies for my sheer ignorance on the subject.
was Timur's apparently all-mightiness based on some technological edge, on diffrent tactics or on his personal values (i guess that a combination of both)
was his way of waging war very different from that of geghis khan?

 

[Ming]

Baargh!!! Lemme at 'em, I say. Bring this 'Timur' out. I've never seen him post, but I'm sure I can whip him.


In all seriousness, I think Timur would have rode roughshod over a few Ming armies, but I doubt he would have been able to conquer ole Yongle.

 

[Aetius]

apologies for my sheer ignorance on the subject.
was Timur's apparently all-mightiness based on some technological edge, on diffrent tactics or on his personal values (i guess that a combination of both)
was his way of waging war very different from that of geghis khan?

I think his "all-mightiness" is based on what he accomplished, not really on any technical advantages he had. I think his and his descendent Babur were the last gasp of the central Asian empire builders.

 

[Keyser Pacha]

I think his and his descendent Babur were the last gasp of the central Asian empire builders.

Maybe the widespread use of firearms erased slowly the superiority of the steppe peoples in warfare, explaining why after Babur they never launched any major new invasions, at least in the west... (and when i say west it's in the broad sense, not only Europe).

 

[Arilou]

I think his "all-mightiness" is based on what he accomplished, not really on any technical advantages he had. I think his and his descendent Babur were the last gasp of the central Asian empire builders.

I thought Nadir Shah was generally considered "The Last Conqueror".

 

[Elias Tarfarius]

Maybe the widespread use of firearms erased slowly the superiority of the steppe peoples in warfare, explaining why after Babur they never launched any major new invasions, at least in the west... (and when i say west it's in the broad sense, not only Europe).

I would not blame this on firearms. In fact, Timur and, moreso, Babur used firearms with great effect. Babur's greatest victory was in fact won by gunpower weapons verse cavalry and elephant charges.

 

[Keyser Pacha]

I would not blame this on firearms. In fact, Timur and, moreso, Babur used firearms with great effect. Babur's greatest victory was in fact won by gunpower weapons verse cavalry and elephant charges.[/QUOTE

i didn't say they didn't used them but that the common use of firearms by their ennemy made steppe people traditional tactics (based on horse archery) less efficient and jeopardized their old superiority on the battlefield.