Originally posted by Ramo
The strongest argument for starting in 1821 is not necessarily that the revolts go perfectly according to history, but that the player has a chance to start the game with these states (Greece and Peru in particular), and not have to save and reload.
The likelihood that he would have to save and reload is low. If we reduce the strength of Spanish power in Latin America as compared to what it was historically in 1816 (which makes it hopeless for the AI) it should be fine.
Events can structure things in the Greek war such that, more often than not, the revolt succeeds.
The whole point of extending the game back would be to include more interesting elements than there would be in the basic scenario. By extending it only back to 1821 - after the independence movements in Greece and Latin America - we exclude probably the most interesting thing that happens in the entire Western world between 1815 and 1848. There just isn't that much else going on. To me, it would seem almost as useful to start the game in 1835. The only difference is that you play the events of the July Monarchy and get a few more years in.
On the other hand, if we start in 1816, the player has the off-chance of crushing the revolts in the Spanish empire.
There's also an off-chance that the confederacy survives in 1865, and frankly, I don't intend to save and reload at that point - I intend to play through it and play an interesting game. The historical tendency should be strong enough that this doesn't happen much.
But what happens then? How would the dynamic change if this were the case? How would Spanish events be different?
A separate discussion, and quite interesting. I frankly think that the standard Spanish events should remain, except perhaps with more revolts in the New World. It would have to be examined on a case-by-case basis, of course, but I think by and large just making periodic fantasy revolts occur in the New World would do fine.
What if an enterprising player is able to take advantage of the AI and conquers most of South America with Bolvia?
If the enterprising player decides to go conquer Latin America, he's doing it because he thinks it would be interesting, and the point of this scenario is to make it interesting for the player.
The point of the game is, after all, to experiment in historical conditions.
What if the Catalans, Basques, Cubans, Filippinos, etc. declare independence due to massive war exhaustion?
And what if India declares independence during the Crimean War? What if Poland does? The scenario that the rest of the Spanish empire revolts is unlikely, and if it does happen (I think ideally that the unhistorical should happen 10-20% of the time) then that's that. I deal with it. The game is not scripted.
And if we make it that unlikely, is it really worth it to put this possibility in the game?
The entire basis of this argument rests upon the principle that if we want to extend the start of the game back, there is very little worth extending back to unless we go back to 1815. This argument can be much easier applied to your proposal - what makes it worth adding any years to the game if there's nothing going on? The game is about having possibilities.
Another question is, how effectively will we be able to simulate the endgame of Europe after WWI and the dynamics of the new world order?
Probably not much worse. It's true that there was a moralist, 'there will be no war' sort of euphoria for a while, but I expect the AI not to go to war for a couple years after the war ends anyway.
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