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Chaingun

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In response to this thread:

http://www.europa-universalis.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=116058&perpage=25&pagenumber=8

Without reading the posts on the last to pages of this thread (I cannot spend my day reading the whole of it (I'll continue later), I'll add how I'd have designed the world market. It basically covers how the world market should behave, and it does not solve the issue of the massive deflation what would occur without new money entering the system. I will return later with more thoughts on this issue, but at least my world market does not print new money out of thin air by selling excess supply to a black hole.

Worthy of notice is also that this concept seems to be easy, but the implementation (especially of the economic AI), is extremely tricky.

A quick thing before I start; I'd have done a system where goods were produced every month, and not every day. This would greatly have cut down on the execution times needed, because I guess this constant economic updating is the reason why Victoria lags a lot of my computer.

I would still have this simplified world market, with perfect information between demand and supply. Every country would be able to specify buying and selling orders just like now. However, no goods would actually be stored in the world market like now. Neither would prices be determined by anything else than the buyers of sellers in the market. Each order would have a price tag on it, and the amount of goods availble for sale.

Now the real fun comes in. All orders would be arranged into two huge lists sorted by price; one list for demand, and one list for supply. At the end of every month these two lists would be compared to each other. For every good the demand orders would be checked from highest price to lowest price. If any two or more orders had the equal price, the prestige of the country buying would determine the priority of the order. After this task was done all selling orders would be sorted by price from lowest to highest, and prestige could be used as a final sorting parameter as well.

Once all lists have been sorted, both lists would be gone through a first time simultaneously, and the supply and demand at each price would be compared. If there was an excess in demand, the orders would be dealt with the most prestigous countries buying first until supply was depleted. During this "opening call" (a term from the stock market), excess equal orders could easily be filtered away. Of course this part of the WM needs to have it so that prices only can be set a fixed levels (every integer from 1 to 100 for example), so that orders can be somewhat equal.

After the opening call the order list for demand would be iterated from as it was sorted, that is from highest to lowest price. Countries with higher prestige would go first here within each price group. For each buying order the supply list would be iterated through for selling orders have a price of less than the buying order, but still from lowest to the highest possible price. If the quantity of the selling orders on one price level were not enough, the orders of the next price level are taken into consideration.

All of this might sound confusing, but consider the example scenario I have made beneith:

Fictional market for wheat, with very few orders and without the prestige factor (= simplification):

Initial orders:
Buying orders (quantity, price):
B1: 100, 15
B2: 150, 13
B3: 100, 12
B4: 200, 10
Buying price: 15

Selling orders (quantity, price):
S1: 100, 16
S2: 200, 14
S3: 200, 12
S4: 50, 11
Selling price: 11

Orders after opening call:
Buying orders (quantity, price):
B1: 100, 15
B2: 150, 13
B3: 200, 10

Selling orders (quantity, price):
S1: 100, 16
S2: 200, 14
S3: 100, 12
S4: 50, 11

Left-over orders after the second order handling phase:
Buying orders (quantity, price):
B1: 100, 13
B3: 200, 10

Selling orders (quantity, price):
S1: 100, 16
S2: 200, 14


As can be seen from the highly simplified example above, the only remaining orders are the ones of the countries that did not offer particulary attracting orders in their respective categories. In order to get the most goods sold at the next month's world market, prices would have to converge to a very few levels (except with a few distinguished orders that are needed to be instantaneous).

How does my world market system solve the excess supply in some areas? Well, basically if there is too much supply, AIs and players will have to decrease prices to compete. When prices drop less profit from the excess products will be received, and might even be turned into losses. This will in turn force the most inefficient producers to shut down, because they will be making the most losses. The end result is that supply will decrease and prices stop falling, to eventually rise again if demand grows.
 

Chaingun

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Yes, I didn't think of that RGO's are static unlike factories. Still a possibility could be that less POPs could be assigned to work on them, but this runs into another problem; not all nations have access to alternative production methods like factories... Also real life (TM) wants of a population are unlimited, they certainly aren't in Victoria.

But if this market system still was used, wouldn't the only effect for these excess RGO goods be that their market prices would be extremely low, and that a huge supply would build up? Perhaps a country's stock of a certain good could be limited, so that any extra production of an already obscene amount that has been stockpiled, just is thrown into the sea. Of course this does not help nations whose only production are of these excess gooods, they'd just go bankrupt a little more often than they currently do...

EDIT: It just occured to me that emigration could solve some of these RGOs' over-production. If a specific good almost returns zero revenue, the population does not earn any money, thereby decreasing their cash reserves. This should make the population unhappy enough to move to provinces that contain RGO's that actually return anything of value.
 

Chaingun

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EDIT: I was a bit fuzzy about the definition of fixed and variable costs below. Of course the "money fixed" costs I talk about still are fixed costs when converted to resources, but the idea still applies. However I think maintainance costs (still in resources), should be added to for example railroads and fortresses, regardless they do any other changes to the economic model or not.

I have to disagree about the state of fixed costs. For the first part there is always an extra variable factor, which can consume large amount of resources: War. War in Victoria is a phenomena that can be used to take away resources from the game world in the same way as in real life; history has shown us that any nations capable of producing have expanded at their neighbours' expense. Also wars can be really long and indecisive, and there is always economic destruction involved.

As for the fixed costs of the type: Army division X costs Y pounds, maintainance is Z pounds. These should be removed. Instead the cost of recruiting and then supporting a division should always be in terms of resources, not in pounds. The only single factor where pounds should be used is where the money value is already derived from the value of transfered goods, eg. the world market or the budget.

Removing these static money costs solves a lot of the problem. For example when a big nation suddenly starts upgrading its railroads it will expand its production exponentially. As the process continues each railroad gets cheaper and cheaper in relative terms. If the only cost for a railroad was in resources (which it's only partially now), a true market system would force the nation to buy these resources, and in effect to raise the price. Of course the relative cost still decreases, but not to such a poor value.

The AI should be able to evaluate resources based on their market prices, and the relative time it takes for a certain amount of workers to produce one unit of a certain resource. This would have to include costs of education and similar things, and of course the costs of raw materials. Sure, this evaluation system would be very hard to implement but it's not impossible.

I forgot to mention I am as convinced as you are that a true market system never will be implemented in Victoria. However, I think a discussion about how things could have been made better is good for upcoming Paradox games...
 
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