How does it fix it? The failed imprisonment led to target fleeing to someone else's court and from that point on he's untouchable. Funnily enough the target was my just born son, who at age of 1 day decided "You know what, father? No more imprison attempts for you. I'm packing my junx and leaving for greener pastures".
There's something very wrong with percentages in this game
- Thread starter killcreak
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I've already addressed exactly this. But apparently you really haven't been reading what I've been writing.
Seeing as how much of a concern optimization has been lately for the devs, I'm pretty sure this is intentional and was chosen for good reasons. Again, this occurrence is not going to happen often enough to seriously impact gameplay, and a big part of software design is knowing when an algorithm that's "good enough" is better than the "best" one, because usually the "best" option takes a lot more processing power.
It fixes it in the sense that it answers your question of why it happened.
I'm not the moron just because I understand basic mathematics and rounding principles. It should only have an ~ qualifier if it has it on all other percentages. The concept that numbers are rounded is quite typical and been explicitly said for anyone who's looked into any of the numbers side of this game (or anything that uses rounding anywhere in life). Hence why far more commonly in the Demesne tooltip the numbers displayed freqently don't sum up to the total, because of rounding. You can admit you're wrong, or refuse to admit you're wrong, but no need to resort to puerile name calling.
I still do not get it, can you please elaborate on the "wait a few days to change the seed" advice you gave? I have one attempt and if it fails the target is gone. How do I know I need to "wait a few days"?
You don't know. The seed issue means people trying the same thing in the same way before the seed refreshes will get the same result. Eg if a game saves the seed then saving, reloading after a bad result and trying the same thing again ("save-scumming") will get the same result. If you want to save-scum you need to change what you're trying, perhaps by waiting a few days before trying again.
If you're only trying once then you have no knowledge what the seed is, which is how its supposed to be and the action is (pseudo-)random.
In normal mode I can console kill anyone, in ironman mode I don't know when the seed is bad. So under what circumstances does this "wait a few days to change the seed" advice work?
The imprison chance indicator lies. If you ever go on massive imprisoning sprees you'll see the actual chance is much lower than the one shown. You can definitely tell with all the failed 100% ones, as they happen far more often than 1 in 200 (assuming misleading rounding). I also know this was something changed with patches, as it used to be that 100% meant 100%.
You've no idea what a pleasant surprise is to find a post that makes sense after two pages of bs.
There is no advice, and there is no "fix", because nothing is wrong. You are not supposed to know the random outcome before you press the button, and therefore whatever outcome you experience is essentially random for you. Making a single attempt is always correct and random. Live with the result you got.
Waiting for the seed to change is only going to be helpful if you're attempting to do something multiple times - either through save-scumming or legitimately doing an action multiple times in a row - and have noticed that you failed with a high probability of success.
Everything people have been telling you in this thread is that your initial complaint is wrong - the percentages work just fine, and the reason why 100% still fails is because of rounding. I honestly don't know what you're trying to do by trying to find any little tiny thing to argue about, but I'd strongly suggest that if it's just so you don't have to feel like you "lost" this argument that you should just stop. You're only making yourself look foolish.
Confirmation bias is a thing. I'm also highly skeptical that you've been imprisoning enough people to get a big enough sample size to be able to test this, especially because the only people I've ever seen with a 100% imprisonment chance are unlanded courtiers - and who bothers to go on a mass imprisonment spree against them?
It's also likely that the mass imprisonment spree is done while the game is paused, which brings up the obvious fact that we've been talking about this entire thread, namely, that the random seed will not have been reset between attempts. This would mean that if an unlikely outcome happens, it's going to keep happening until the seed is reset. Of course you're going to see a greater number of events failing as soon as you get your first failure at 100%, because the seed is one that is going to make those events fail.
You also don't know that 100% previously meant exactly 100%, because, well, if there's rounding that's still an almost assured chance of success. Maybe you just weren't unlucky enough to get a failure at 100% until this patch.
But they're still wrong, or at least don't have good reason to believe that there's anything wrong with the percentages. Maybe you should be approaching this thread by listening to what people are saying, rather than trying to "win" an argument and only listening to people that already agree with you.
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That wait advice was for people trying to arrest someone who is fleeing to other courts within your realm with the game paused, what happens is you can attempt, he flees to another court, and because the game has not shifted forward a day the same seed is used for the following attempt in another vassals court where he fleed to. If you are trying to arrest someone with 100% chance and you failed then I'm at a loss. Maybe 100% isn't really 100% and is 99.99999. I dunno, but the let the game tick past once to get a new seed is purely for fixing those times where people try to do a randomized choice while the games paused over and over again. The seed changes pretty often just let the game advance a lil bit is all. You can do the same thing with the save scumming method just make sure you make the choice on a different day than the previous attempt maybe even month if you can.
Last game, I failed 3 imprison chances at 100%. I had several (4+ at 98% fail as well). They were all within the same family line, within the same 4 year period. The three 100%'s were all consecutive as well. It certainly COULD be confirmation bias, but my napkin math has the 50/50 imprison chances at 55%, and the 100% imprison chance at about 65% right now.
Yes, it was so bad I started keeping track of it, because my friends called me on my bitching about confirmation bias. 100% shouldn't fail 3 times in a row, within a year...
Basically, the top edge does seem biased, but the insides seem okay. It is also recent, I never EVER had a 100% fail until either WoL or Charlemagne, not sure which it was.
Yes, it was so bad I started keeping track of it, because my friends called me on my bitching about confirmation bias. 100% shouldn't fail 3 times in a row, within a year...
Basically, the top edge does seem biased, but the insides seem okay. It is also recent, I never EVER had a 100% fail until either WoL or Charlemagne, not sure which it was.
Still confirmation bias. Its not the odds of it happening three times in a row once that you need to think about, its the odds of it happening three times in a row ever. How many decisions have you made in just one game, that went smoothly and you never thought of it? Then multiply that by all the times you've played. Then multiply it by all the people who post on this forum who're playing.
If it never happened it'd be odd.
If it never happened it'd be odd.