The value of synthetic fuel plants for nations with access to fuel and rubber

[MR2]

Bravo. Well played.

 

[MechaThumper]

Except that doesn't include the opportunity cost of just building another civ. If you have the option to build a synthetic factory you also have the option to build a civ.

This is what you can get for building either assuming you can trade for more resources:

So without anything researched you need 8 Synthetic refineries to match what you can get from 1 Civ Factory in terms of rubber. They will give you 384 fuel though, so you will need 1 Civ on fuel to match the refineries. That's 8 refineries v 2 civs.

With everything researched, if you have 8 Synthetic refineries they will match 5 Civ Factories in terms of rubber. They will also give 1344 fuel, so you will need 1.75 Civ on fuel to match the refineries. That's 8 refineries v 6.75 civs.

Without Fuel Refining, but having the Synthetic refinery techs researched you will need 8 Synthetics to match 5 Civ Factories in terms of rubber. They will also give 1152 Fuel, so you will need 3 Civ on fuel to match the refineries. That's 8 refineries v 8 civs. This scenario is not going to happen cause there is no need to research 9 specific techs while ignoring 5 techs that will result in a better outcome.

Now this doesn't take into account Consumer Goods or Trade Laws. For that lets just focus on the Max Resources and switch Synths to what % of a Civ's resources they can get:

take into account the different trade laws and you will notice that unless you have really high consumer goods a Synthetic Refinery will never pay itself off versus a Civilian Factory and they cost more to build.

If you have a closed economy and a civilian economy to have 35% consumer goods, a Synthetic refinery would essentially save you 0.19 of a Civ in construction, and since it costs 3,700 more to build, it will take 3,819 days to pay off divided by the state infrastructure and construction speed. Or about 3-4 years best case scenario.

As others have said, unless you can't trade for more resources or expect not to be able to in the future it's not worth building Synthetic Factories.

 

[porta80]

You will eventually save CIC on imports that equals the cost of the synthetic plants you build.

You figure the cost of the synthetic plants, then compare it to the rubber they give you (not total rubber, but the rubber you get at the current trade law), and compute that against the CIC required to import the rubber over time.

Let me give an example:

Let's take the Soviet Union with 1939 IC techs and synthetic rubber techs.

View attachment 603711

Okay, so at those techs, in Moscow (a state with 80% infrastructure), 15 CIC generate 189 construction speed, which will take 76.71 days to complete (which, in HOI4, is 77 days) given a construction cost of 14500.

That's 15 CIC per day, though, so we need to break that down to 1 CIC per day for comparison purposes, since 1 CIC will generate 8 rubber per day for imports. So, 1 CIC per day will generate 12.6 construction speed (189 construction speed / 15 CIC). At that speed, it will take 1,151 days to complete (14,500 cost / 12.6 construction speed instead of 189 construction speed).

Okay, so it takes 1 CIC 1151 days to finish the synthetic plant. That 1 CIC could just buy 8 rubber for 1151 days.

But....

... At 1939 techs, you only get 3 rubber. So, even when that 1 CIC finishes the synthetic plant, it's not as efficient as buying 8 rubber.

But...

... Unless your economy is closed, you are also exporting that rubber.

So, in our example, the Soviet Union is sitting on Export focus, so that 3 rubber really equals 1.5 rubber per day. So, we need to multiply that time to build the synthetic plant by 5.3 (due to the difference between 8 rubber for 1 CIC and 1.5 rubber for 1 CIC) to give us the time it would take the synthetic rubber plant to pay for itself.

That's 6,138 days.

So, yes, it will eventually pay for itself. Just not by 1945.

This is also modified again if someone buys your exported rubber. If 100% of your exported rubber is purchased, you don't have to worry about the rubber you "lose" from exports. In that case, we redo the math with 3 rubber (since all rubber is being used or bought). That's a 2.66 increase in the 1151 days due to dividing the 8 rubber you get from purchases by the 3 rubber the plant produces and sells. That gives us 3069 days until it pays itself off. So, that's around 8.4 years.

That's still beyond 1945.

But...

... If you get a boost to rubber output via NF and reduce your exports, it changes the math.

If the Soviets got the same NF that Germany does, and if they stepped down to Limited Exports, they are now producing 5 rubber per day per plant at 1939 techs.

If you use or sell 100% of the rubber in this scenario, you are looking at 8 rubber from purchases divided by 5 rubber used or sold from the synthetic plant. That's 1.6 times the 1151 days for 1 CIC to build a synthetic plant, yielding 1841 days to pay it off. That's 5 years.

If you can't sell it all, you need to dump 25% of the output out of the equation. That gives us 5 rubber modified by the 15% you didn't sell, which gives us 3.75 rubber a day. That's 2.13 times the 1151 days you spent 1 CIC to build a synthetic plant, yielding 2455 days to pay off the plant. That's 6.72 years.

Obviously, if you build the plants at 1941 techs (or higher) and research more rubber output sooner (so that the extra output applies from day 1 of the plant being built), the plants pay for themselves sooner. But unless you can use and sell 100% of the output of those plants (at whatever trade law you have), they won't pay for themselves any time during a typical war.

The irony is that Germany and its boost to rubber output, plus being one of the only trading partners for the European Axis, means that it can get those plants to pay for themselves within a reasonable amount of time. No one else really can unless they build very late and research those rubber techs to high levels.

This discussion should also highlight the power of that boost to rubber output that Germany gets. +2 rubber makes a huge difference when it comes to synthetic plants.

Not to forget the research needed to get to those techs could be invested somewhere else and in addition changing trade laws costs PP and more closed trade laws have effect on your overall building time, research and military production so it makes your math even worse.
Just to complete the list ;-)

 

[Sunforged General]

Except that doesn't include the opportunity cost of just building another civ. If you have the option to build a synthetic factory you also have the option to build a civ.

This is what you can get for building either assuming you can trade for more resources:
View attachment 603752

So without anything researched you need 8 Synthetic refineries to match what you can get from 1 Civ Factory in terms of rubber. They will give you 384 fuel though, so you will need 1 Civ on fuel to match the refineries. That's 8 refineries v 2 civs.

With everything researched, if you have 8 Synthetic refineries they will match 5 Civ Factories in terms of rubber. They will also give 1344 fuel, so you will need 1.75 Civ on fuel to match the refineries. That's 8 refineries v 6.75 civs.

Without Fuel Refining, but having the Synthetic refinery techs researched you will need 8 Synthetics to match 5 Civ Factories in terms of rubber. They will also give 1152 Fuel, so you will need 3 Civ on fuel to match the refineries. That's 8 refineries v 8 civs. This scenario is not going to happen cause there is no need to research 9 specific techs while ignoring 5 techs that will result in a better outcome.

Now this doesn't take into account Consumer Goods or Trade Laws. For that lets just focus on the Max Resources and switch Synths to what % of a Civ's resources they can get:
View attachment 603800

take into account the different trade laws and you will notice that unless you have really high consumer goods a Synthetic Refinery will never pay itself off versus a Civilian Factory and they cost more to build.

View attachment 603803

If you have a closed economy and a civilian economy to have 35% consumer goods, a Synthetic refinery would essentially save you 0.19 of a Civ in construction, and since it costs 3,700 more to build, it will take 3,819 days to pay off divided by the state infrastructure and construction speed. Or about 3-4 years best case scenario.

As others have said, unless you can't trade for more resources or expect not to be able to in the future it's not worth building Synthetic Factories.

What you say makes sense for Fascist or Communist countries that can easily switch to war economy very early on, but for democratic countries stuck in civilian economy until 1939, building civilian factories costs 30% more than normal, so it would in theory still be cheaper for them to build synthetic plants since if i'm not mistaken, those dont suffer the penalty that civ factories suffer.

 

[mursolini]

You will eventually save CIC on imports that equals the cost of the synthetic plants you build.

Thanks for explaining what you meant

What you say makes sense for Fascist or Communist countries that can easily switch to war economy very early on, but for democratic countries stuck in civilian economy until 1939, building civilian factories costs 30% more than normal, so it would in theory still be cheaper for them to build synthetic plants since if i'm not mistaken, those dont suffer the penalty that civ factories suffer.

Whom are these democracies, stuck on civilian til 1939?

 

[MechaThumper]

What you say makes sense for Fascist or Communist countries that can easily switch to war economy very early on, but for democratic countries stuck in civilian economy until 1939, building civilian factories costs 30% more than normal, so it would in theory still be cheaper for them to build synthetic plants since if i'm not mistaken, those dont suffer the penalty that civ factories suffer.

The increased cost only changes the time that a synthetic factory would pay for itself, but that is assuming it will do so. You would basically need to be on closed economy because just having 100% stability and civilian economy gets you to 30% Consumer Goods which makes civs better than refineries on limited exports. And this is looking at the output of a 1943 synthetic refinery. A 1939 refinery is significantly worse, you have to be a closed economy, with civilian economy, less than 50 stability, and a national spirit that increases consumer goods by 10% before a 1939 refinery starts to pay off compared to a civ.

 

[agonistes]

The increased cost only changes the time that a synthetic factory would pay for itself, but that is assuming it will do so. You would basically need to be on closed economy because just having 100% stability and civilian economy gets you to 30% Consumer Goods which makes civs better than refineries on limited exports. And this is looking at the output of a 1943 synthetic refinery. A 1939 refinery is significantly worse, you have to be a closed economy, with civilian economy, less than 50 stability, and a national spirit that increases consumer goods by 10% before a 1939 refinery starts to pay off compared to a civ.

Synthetics are nice because there aren’t enough resources in the world to meet my needs. You end up trading one cic for 2 rubber or oil. One cic for 8 of a resource only happens early game and quickly becomes a pipe dream.

I even build them as the US (and close my economy - cause steel runs short too).

 

[SophieX]

Those pure "calculations", how many CIVs and how long and the research-time, are nice but not very helpful for a nation going to make war.

I repeat what @Secret Master said above:
"The last thing you want is 100 MIC on planes grinding to a halt for 70 days while you build synthetic plants in an emergency."

- Most nations cannot ensure a safe import-route.
- There is not enough rubber overall to satisfy the need s of all nations.

"Worth" are those things, which satisfies my needs - the "price" is uninteresting.

 

[dasaard200]

Another thing to "corn-sider" is the Proper Abuse of PUPPETS;
1] You already own them ;
2] Building on puppet turf does wonders to autonomy, could have to raise "locals" to balance ;
3] Trade laws for Puppets are easy rip-offs (1 CF for 15+ of {this}), vs. trade by CFs (1 CF for 8 of [that]) !

What you may have to worry about :
1] While Puppet Trading is IMMUNE from AI 'sniping', your Puppet IS a more tempting target ;
2] Time spent & industrial Expense ; ((are your needs THAT dire ?))
3] Building slots in Puppet ; and
4] Keeping Bozo the hell AWAY from your piggy bank !!

 

[dasaard200]

This goes 8-fold more importantly IF you use the "RESOURCE FACTORIES"(RFs) mod, as you can build 8 RFs/locals-in-STATE, like as a fort or port ; NOT using a building slot like a Synthetic does ; choose wisely .
There IS a difference between 'local' RFs (any type of 6 resources), a maximum of 8 allowed PER STATE; and the 'big time' Synthetic Refinery. which uses a 'larger level' building slot .
Think of an RF as the 'Mom & Pop shop' vs. Standard Oil's Synthetic Refinery .