The unreasonable effectiveness of submarines

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DGuller

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I played the standard German game, except for delaying the start of the war by half a year in order to build up a force of ~60 1940 subs with snorkels. Off the coast of Portugal, 12 brave subs without any support from the air managed to take down pretty much all of Royal Navy. You can imagine that Sealion wasn't too hard after that.

What is it about submarines that makes them so ridiculously effective? Whatever it is, it needs to be nerfed big time, because this effectiveness of subs pretty much negate the whole naval game. Why bother with a combined force when you can just have subs handle everything except other subs, and have naval bombers handle the enemy subs?
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Zeprion

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What is it about submarines that makes them so ridiculously effective?
You can't see them unless you're under water.

Well, pretty ridiculous battle right there. Maybe you had all the upgrades while UK AI didn't even bother with the naval research. They should only nerf the thing that makes them so ridiculously effective without touching anything else, so that they won't be nerfed into non-existance like they used to be.
 
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DicRoNero

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What is it about submarines that makes them so ridiculously effective?
  • unlimited ammo
  • ability to somehow pin the enemy and force him to stay in battle to take those unlimited torpedo hits
  • inability of combat ships to just ram (HMS Dreadnought vs U-29, anyone?)
I guess the last point can be addressed by giving all ships 1 depth charge attack, at least that's what I'm about to add for my mod anyway. Hopefully this will also indirectly help with the other issues.
 
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Nnorm

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You can't see them unless you're under water.

Well, pretty ridiculous battle right there. Maybe you had all the upgrades while UK AI didn't even bother with the naval research. They should only nerf the thing that makes them so ridiculously effective without touching anything else, so that they won't be nerfed into non-existance like they used to be.

This.
Tier 3 DD can take down old cruisers. AI simple doesn't care about naval research.
 
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bitmode

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What is it about submarines that makes them so ridiculously effective?
(In my opinion) in terms of game mechanics, the ability of subs to fire while attempting to disengage:
Subs can now fire also while withdrawing
  • Convoy escort missions were too binary. Either you have protected the convoys in time or not. Arriving on time provided too much of an advantage to the escort and thus made sub raiding less viable. Subs will now get an extra volley or two in most combats, making raiding with high-quality subs against low-quality escorts more viable.
This has huge ramifications for combat balancing of subs outside of the specific scenario it was intended for. Instead of making it harder for escorts to be there in time in the early game, subs are now Schrödinger's cats that simultaneously fight and hide. This made it necessary to set the torpedo reveal chance very low to not have the subs be butchered while getting their extra volley or two in. If you plug in the stats of your subs and your research into the formula, you'll likely get something in the ballpark of 0.5% reveal chance per torpedo fired. That's the better half of a month worth of firing torpedoes on average.
This is about as likely as hitting an old destroyer with a torpedo. A decent sub can statistically sink a destroyer in one hit, especially when based on the Early Destroyer Hull, before it gets revealed once.

At the same time, the active reveal chance (same link) is a cubed formula making it extremely unlikely to actively detect non-sh*tty subs in battle. In a battle like yours, it maybe happened just once or twice.
 
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Desatanica

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Play with mods, the developers barely playtest for balance and don't listen to communities with players who have over 5k hours.
 
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GrandVezir

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What is it about submarines that makes them so ridiculously effective? Whatever it is, it needs to be nerfed big time, because this effectiveness of subs pretty much negate the whole naval game. Why bother with a combined force when you can just have subs handle everything except other subs, and have naval bombers handle the enemy subs?

It's not a submarine problem, it's an AI problem. The AI does not make any dedicated ASW ships and has no apparent strategy for dealing with submarines.

The historic US and UK navies dealt with submarines by building literally thousands of dedicated vessels for the effort: destroyer escorts, subchasers, corvettes, escort carriers, and so on, for which there are no actual counterparts in-game. You can vaguely simulate escort carriers and destroyer escorts by building the cheapest possible versions of destroyers and carriers to spot and slow the submarines, then producing them in bulk to actually be present to do the spotting. Then also build hunter-killer destroyers with serious ASW weapons, or a bunch of advanced naval bombers to actually sink the spotted submarines.

The AI, of course, does very little of this. It can (sort of) cope with 1936 and interwar subs, though it tends to struggle with numbers. 1940 and later designs simply overpower the AI's dubious design and production choices.
 
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DGuller

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I agree that it's probably an AI issue. If I were the human in position of GB, I would just not be sending out my ships outside of air cover while my ASW capability was lacking. Where I would remain, I would be spamming radars everywhere and saturating it with every plane that can drop bombs. I would also be retreating my fleets if I saw that I was just stuck in the battle with no way to deal sufficient damage.

One of the issues here was that AI didn't think they were on the losing end of the battle. They just kept sitting there eating torpedoes. My subs were on "Always Engage", so they weren't going to retreat, but I guess the calculations AI does for retreating do not properly account for the chance to spot the submarine. I also think that escort ships never abandon the convoys until all the convoys are sunk, which is noble but suicidal.
 

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I agree that it's probably an AI issue. If I were the human in position of GB, I would just not be sending out my ships outside of air cover while my ASW capability was lacking. Where I would remain, I would be spamming radars everywhere and saturating it with every plane that can drop bombs. I would also be retreating my fleets if I saw that I was just stuck in the battle with no way to deal sufficient damage.

One of the issues here was that AI didn't think they were on the losing end of the battle. They just kept sitting there eating torpedoes. My subs were on "Always Engage", so they weren't going to retreat, but I guess the calculations AI does for retreating do not properly account for the chance to spot the submarine. I also think that escort ships never abandon the convoys until all the convoys are sunk, which is noble but suicidal.
The dev problem is that they have not considered people using "Always Engage" on subs as if you had not done that so would you subs have retreated and that battle not happened.

The enemy fleet was also much larger then your sub fleet so had a massive penalty and would ironicly only lose that after all the escorts were killed and only capital ships left that couldn't hurt your Subs...
 
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donald dawkins

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Tends to be a bit of an issue in mp games as well

most games have had to put a rule banning snorkel 2 and sub 4s in games due to their excessive effectiveness and almost insane ability to survive dedicated asw vessels.

equally, most games have limited sub stacking to at least 6 subs per fleet to stop mass deletions of convoys by sub stacks of dooooooooooom

the key problem with subs right now is that they don’t have to kill a lot of convoys to be effective; I believe (this is my theory from using subs in mp games and may not be fact) that any convoys caught in a sub engagement delay the transportation of resources to a nation, meaning that with enough small subs fleets you can indefinitely “pin” convoys, preventing them from delivering their resources and creating A snowball effect; convoys delivering oil get delayed, meaning no oil can get to the nation being raided until the engagement ends (which won’t as the convoy will then get intercepted by another small sub fleet), meaning they can’t bring out their asw ships to stop said convoy raiding, leading to a no win scenario for the raided nation. I would compare it to pinning on frontlines; you try and move into an empty tile to get a breakthrough, but get pinned by a much weaker force, by the time you win the pin engagement the empty tile has been refilled, prolonging the war of attrition. This is fine in land war mechanics due to things like equipment, reinforce rate etc but absolutely disastrous in convoy raiding due to to to the massive impact it has in terms of fuel and resources.

This Is my theory anyway, and if it’s right then a lot of MP games have got the management of subs EXTREMELY WRONG; by forcing lots of small sub fleets they’ve created indefinite pinning that is more harmful to balance then large sub fleets. It’s effectively like the old version of strategic bombing, where if you get enough strategic bomber over a certain region they can destroy the means to counter said strategic bombers (air fields) before they can even be reacted to. The only difference is that with subs you can’t even react to them!

this is just my theory though, and more research may be needed.
 
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Vlad123

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Tends to be a bit of an issue in mp games as well

most games have had to put a rule banning snorkel 2 and sub 4s in games due to their excessive effectiveness and almost insane ability to survive dedicated asw vessels.

equally, most games have limited sub stacking to at least 6 subs per fleet to stop mass deletions of convoys by sub stacks of dooooooooooom

the key problem with subs right now is that they don’t have to kill a lot of convoys to be effective; I believe (this is my theory from using subs in mp games and may not be fact) that any convoys caught in a sub engagement delay the transportation of resources to a nation, meaning that with enough small subs fleets you can indefinitely “pin” convoys, preventing them from delivering their resources and creating A snowball effect; convoys delivering oil get delayed, meaning no oil can get to the nation being raided until the engagement ends (which won’t as the convoy will then get intercepted by another small sub fleet), meaning they can’t bring out their asw ships to stop said convoy raiding, leading to a no win scenario for the raided nation. I would compare it to pinning on frontlines; you try and move into an empty tile to get a breakthrough, but get pinned by a much weaker force, by the time you win the pin engagement the empty tile has been refilled, prolonging the war of attrition. This is fine in land war mechanics due to things like equipment, reinforce rate etc but absolutely disastrous in convoy raiding due to to to the massive impact it has in terms of fuel and resources.

This Is my theory anyway, and if it’s right then a lot of MP games have got the management of subs EXTREMELY WRONG; by forcing lots of small sub fleets they’ve created indefinite pinning that is more harmful to balance then large sub fleets. It’s effectively like the old version of strategic bombing, where if you get enough strategic bomber over a certain region they can destroy the means to counter said strategic bombers (air fields) before they can even be reacted to. The only difference is that with subs you can’t even react to them!

this is just my theory though, and more research may be needed.
OMG...this is OP!
 

bitmode

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I believe (this is my theory from using subs in mp games and may not be fact) that any convoys caught in a sub engagement delay the transportation of resources to a nation, meaning that with enough small subs fleets you can indefinitely “pin” convoys, preventing them from delivering their resources and creating A snowball effect
Resources are not delivered in distinct units. Sinking a convoy temporarily reduces the route efficiency of convoy routes going through a sea zone. Just having convoys in a naval battle has no impact on the trade route.
Countries can also stockpile fuel. Only under the most dire circumstances would a reduction in oil imports have an immediate impact on defending against the subs.
 
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donald dawkins

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Resources are not delivered in distinct units. Sinking a convoy temporarily reduces the route efficiency of convoy routes going through a sea zone. Just having convoys in a naval battle has no impact on the trade route.
Countries can also stockpile fuel. Only under the most dire circumstances would a reduction in oil imports have an immediate impact on defending against the subs.

interesting, so if I say sink one convoy vessel per engagement, how much would it affect the research efficiency? If there is say, 100 vessels in a convoy, and my submarines only sink one, would that mean 99% of the resources get through?
Is there value system/ some maths for this as I would be interested in seeing it.
 
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bitmode

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interesting, so if I say sink one convoy vessel per engagement, how much would it affect the research efficiency? If there is say, 100 vessels in a convoy, and my submarines only sink one, would that mean 99% of the resources get through?
Is there value system/ some maths for this as I would be interested in seeing it.
It looks like it is not yet documented in the wiki. Here are the four defines from common/defines/00_defines.lua governing this:
Code:
    CONVOY_EFFICIENCY_LOSS_MODIFIER = 1.25,                            -- How much efficiency drops when losing convoys. If modifier is 0.5, then losing 100% of convoys in short period, the efficiency will drop by 50%.
    CONVOY_EFFICIENCY_REGAIN_AFTER_DAYS = 7,                        -- Convoy starts regaining it's efficiency after X days without any convoys being sink.
    CONVOY_EFFICIENCY_REGAIN_BASE_SPEED = 0.04,                        -- How much efficiency regains every day.
    CONVOY_EFFICIENCY_MIN_VALUE = 0.05,                                -- To avoid complete 0% efficiency, set the lower limit.
 
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donald dawkins

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Thanks, unfortunately the values mean nothing to me (1.25% per convoy vessels or per convoy?, 1.25 units? Etc etc) so i can only guess at the mechanics. So below is complete guesswork:
this assumes that every one convoy vessel sunk is a 1.25% loss in efficency.

if it is 1.25%, and I stack say 10 sub fleets of 6 subs that only destroy 1 convoy every engagement (each) theoretically that’s about 12.5% (10 x 1.25) efficiency loss from multi stacking.

then take away 0.04% per day means only a real loss of 12% a day In convoy efficiency.

bearing in mind that the subs are out constantly every day unless completely wiped out or back for repair (which is rare with high level subs) that means an average of losing 12% convoy efficiency every single time an engagement occurs with every sub fleet and 1 convoy vessel is sunk.

this is where too many variable come into place; this maths assumes that all 10 sub fleets will engage every day and sink at least one convoy vessel. then we have to take into account the frequency of convoy engagements, which could vary significantly dependant on doctrine, location and technology, and I simply have not used subs enough to know their average engagements per day/week/year with full sub naval doctrine .

so this is the worst case scanerio; by stacking 10 small fleets and getting at least one engagement each day from each fleet and sinking one convoy vessel each, within about 9-10 days (10 x 12%) I will have brought the convoy efficiency to 0.

this absolute poor conjecture however if it is right this means then submarines might be a tad overpowered.

now, using the same assumptions, we put all those small 6 sub fleets into one big fleet, so 1 fleet of 60 subs. Now let’s assume that these sink the same equivalent in convoy vessels as the small fleet strategy (10 convoy vessels). That means every day they engage a convoy and sink 10 vessels per day, so a 12% damage to resource efficiency. However, and this is a big however, as all the subs are in one big fleet, they should be easier to intercept with ASW vessels, meaning that the sub fleet can’t expand as much over territory and are more likely to do less damage/ lose more subs) Per engagement.

again, too many variables, however you can take an educated guess and assume that the larger sub fleet will be less effective then the smaller sub fleet, as the smaller fleets will be less likely to be completely intercepted by asw vessels.

again, this is just me guessing and pure conjecture, if someone could provide the actual % loss per convoy vessel lost then we could work out the actual maths

NOTE= I have never seen a complete loss of resource efficency in 10 days, so the maths has to be off.
 
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Thanks for sharing. I will now stop playing again. Reports like this are so depressing. Does it really matter if it is the AI or imbalance? In my opinion it doesn't... because MP is too hard to schedule to play and a viable AI is vital for the challenge.

This game is over 4 years old. I really hope another company starts making a good WWII game. I really can't trust Paradox any more.
 
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donald dawkins

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Thanks for sharing. I will now stop playing again. Reports like this are so depressing. Does it really matter if it is the AI or imbalance? In my opinion it doesn't... because MP is too hard to schedule to play and a viable AI is vital for the challenge.

This game is over 4 years old. I really hope another company starts making a good WWII game. I really can't trust Paradox any more.

the games very good bro, trick is to pick the right mp lobbies with decent rules that stops broken mechanics being used, or curbing them to workable levels.

it can be really frustrating sometimes, especially when you waste 6 hours of your life just to see the game get destroyed by a shoddy broken mechanic from ruleless lobbies, however with the right people you can have some immense fun.
 

DaleDVM

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  • Stellaris: Humanoids Species Pack
  • Stellaris: Apocalypse
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rule Britannia
  • Stellaris: Distant Stars
  • Europa Universalis IV: Dharma
  • BATTLETECH: Flashpoint
  • Stellaris: Megacorp
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Expansion Pass
  • Stellaris: Synthetic Dawn
  • BATTLETECH: Season pass
  • Stellaris: Lithoids
  • BATTLETECH: Heavy Metal
  • Hearts of Iron IV: La Resistance
  • Stellaris: Federations
  • Battle for Bosporus
  • Stellaris: Necroids
  • Stellaris: Nemesis
  • Hearts of Iron IV: By Blood Alone
  • Hearts of Iron IV: No Step Back
  • Stellaris
  • Europa Universalis IV: Art of War
  • Europa Universalis IV: Conquest of Paradise
  • Europa Universalis IV: Wealth of Nations
  • Europa Universalis IV: Res Publica
  • Sword of the Stars
  • Sword of the Stars II
  • Europa Universalis IV: El Dorado
  • Pillars of Eternity
  • Europa Universalis IV: Common Sense
  • Europa Universalis IV: Cossacks
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mare Nostrum
  • Europa Universalis IV
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Cadet
  • Europa Universalis IV: Rights of Man
  • Stellaris: Digital Anniversary Edition
  • Stellaris: Leviathans Story Pack
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Together for Victory
  • Stellaris - Path to Destruction bundle
  • Europa Universalis IV: Mandate of Heaven
  • Europa Universalis IV: Third Rome
  • BATTLETECH
  • Hearts of Iron IV: Death or Dishonor
My MP experience has been terrible. People dropping out. Playing at breakneck speeds. Weird game schedules...

I would rather waste my time due to errors by the AI than waste many hours and then real people mess up the game by quitting.
 
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