Originally posted by Meiji-Tenno
Yes, I see your points. The Japanese were advantageous in the air, and struck some heavy blows on the British with the sinking of the Prince of Wales and several other warships. A main problem for the British was that they were more concerned with defending the Isles from a feared German invasion. And their greatest ground, sea, and air units were in the West. They had a smaller amount of such skilled units in Malaya. Many of the ones that were there before had been called to Europe for extra defence. The Americans could've helped (Remember, this was after Pearl Harbor) but they probably wouldn't because they would've sooner supplied their own islands that were being attacked by the Japanese, plus they would have to pass through hostile territory to reach Singapore. For the Americans to make a difference here, the British would've had to beat the Japanese out of Malaya, forcing them to re-supply, then the U.S. would have to fight their way through to Singapore (Passing the Philippines, which I think they would've tried to save sooner than Singapore if they got that far) and then help the British. The English forces would probably also need to be reinforced by Indian squadrons, along with some fresh troops, supplies, aircraft, and possibly some ships from England. This could probably be done in about the time it took Yamashita to get his forces well supplied. But then, the Japanese probably would supply faster, fearing that the British would get resupplied and get help from the Americans. They would probably also bombard the area to harrass the British forces. The Japanese would probably also get reinforced with fresh troops, so the Japanese would still probably have a better chance for victory here. Especially because Yamashita is also usually thought of as a superior general to Percival, and the Japanese would probably be ready for an attack before the British were fully prepared. The American and British reinforcements would probably arrive during the fight, and perhaps keep it going on longer. The Japanese would call for more supplies and reinforcements, and in a few weeks (probably closer to two months, depending on how good the Allies reinforced), Singapore would probably still fall. Very interesting scenario, by the way, King.
Meiji-Tenno
I think first things first here, Percival is no match for Yamashita. Percival was a highly rated staff officer who just could not take the hard decisions, Yamashita is one of the best Japanese Generals of the war. So if the British were to have any chance of stopping Yamashita first advance, Pericival is not in Singapore. Someone else has to be commanding the Imperial army. Let's say Montgomery is there. He would of put some back bone in the defenders and got rid of people like Bennet, this probably the only hope of stopping the ifrst advance. Even then Yamashita has, as you point out, several high cards, shorter supply lines, better troops (the Japanese troops who fough in the Malaya campaign considered themselves amoungst the elite of the Imperial Japanese army, the same can not be said of British and Imperial soldiers, many of whom were newly raised conscripts), also better equipment (like tanks) and most of all they knew how to fight in the Jungle. If we look at Burma as an example, it took Slim about a year to get his troops comfortable in the jungle and believing that they could take on the Japanese man to man. So in order for the Commonwealth to make a success of Singapore it needs to be held for about a year. This is where the problems begin. Japan by holding Sumatra has a dagger pointed at the throat of the Britsh supply lines. To stop this Britain would need a huge investment in fighters just to stop the Japanese airforce strangling the defenders (nevermind the IJN). The problem for the British is where do they come from. The Germans are still involved in low grade bombing of the British Isles requiring fighters there. Then even if the fighters could be found then Rommel goes on the rampage in the Western Desert in the Sring of '42, putting more preasure on Briths resources. The only hope is for the Japanese to pick somewhere else to draw their resources off.
However Singapore is in such a key location you could see it actually helping the Japanese, by holding out. With Singapore still needing to be reduced would the Japanese really go after Midway? The defence of the home Islands is of course important but Singapore location is such that it could prevent the Japanese getting all that lovely oil back from NEI. You could see the Japanese swinging their carrier forces against Singapore to reduce it once and for all. With what several hundred extra planes, being flown by some of the finest pilots the Japanese produced it is now a major mircle required for the British. The more I think about it an alternative would be to stage a Dunkirk style operation in the Spring of '42 this is one thing the British army actually excells at and might be sucessful. Certianly if the 130,000 troops didn't march into capitivty then it could only help the British.