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Derek Pullem

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Originally posted by jacob-Lundgren
dont forget one day france and the dutch will be liberated and england can focus on japan. that meens japan still loses, especialy since the english carriers had steel decks(or some non wooden type i dont remember the exact type) and would be much harder to destroy from the air.

England vs Japan without the US = Japanese walkover. The steel deck carriers were better but not invulnerable and the British carriers did not have the same number of planes to throw at the Japaenese as the Americans did. Plus most of the British war construction carriers were CVLs intended to support convoys, not Cvs intended to fight a carrier war.

The Commonwealth might have got Burma back - but I can't see them retaking Malaya by themselves.
 
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Originally posted by Derek Pullem
England vs Japan without the US = Japanese walkover. The steel deck carriers were better but not invulnerable and the British carriers did not have the same number of planes to throw at the Japaenese as the Americans did.

This was a consequence of the trade-off in armour protection. RN and USN aircraft carriers were designed with different operational conditions in mind. The RN expected to have its carriers operating in range of land-based enemy aircraft, and thus put a premium on very strong defensive armour. The USN anticipated relatively lighter opposition and so put more emphasis on hanger size. The difference is an interesting example of the inherent problem in weapons design - that you can't have everything at once. The results were mixed. Because of their steel decks, RN carriers could shrug off kamikaze strikes that would have temporarily crippled USN flat-tops - *but* because their metal decks were an integral part of the ship's structure rather than just replaceable superstructure, this meant that in the long-term they couldn't be easily repaired. The effect of multiple impacts on metal decks caused them to buckle under the strain, which meant that carriers had to be written off at a fairly early stage in their operational lives.
 

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Originally posted by Derek Pullem


England vs Japan without the US = Japanese walkover. The steel deck carriers were better but not invulnerable and the British carriers did not have the same number of planes to throw at the Japaenese as the Americans did. Plus most of the British war construction carriers were CVLs intended to support convoys, not Cvs intended to fight a carrier war.

The Commonwealth might have got Burma back - but I can't see them retaking Malaya by themselves.

If there had been no war in the West I think that Britain could of taken on the Japanese. It certainly did have the fleet to fight the Japanese. It was just too busy to do so in World War II. I think that again Britain could sustain the war longer than the Japanese could. Altough no American help would equal a very long fight.
 

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I don`t think, that the Brit`s were capable to fight the jap`s. they could have fought to a stalemate in Burma, but their fleet was not up to the needs of the indian ocean/pacific. the carriers were sub-par and w/o adequate fighter cover their battleships would have been an easy target for the bettys/nells/kates and vals. what should they do? any strategic landing to break the lock in burma would have been suicide...
 
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It is a little known fact of history that there were powerful reactionary (fascist) forces in America during the thirties and thereafter which sought to overthrow the Roosevelt Administration and either delay or prevent America's participation in any future conflict with Germany.

So it might be possible to include a percentage chance of delaying America's entry in the war due to internal subversion. . .

Here are the facts behind this historical period in America's pre-World War II history:

From the book: The Plot to Seize the White House by Jules Archer - I urge you to read this book at your local library :)

THE BUSINESS PLOT TO OVERTHROW ROOSEVELT

In the summer of 1933, shortly after Roosevelt's "First 100 Days," America's richest businessmen were in a panic. It was clear that Roosevelt intended to conduct a massive redistribution of wealth from the rich to the poor. Roosevelt had to be stopped at all costs.

The answer was a military coup. It was to be secretly financed and organized by leading officers of the Morgan and Du Pont empires. This included some of America's richest and most famous names of the time:

Irenee Du Pont - Right-wing chemical industrialist and founder of the American Liberty League, the organization assigned to execute the plot. Heavy contributors to the American Liberty League were: the Pitcairn family, Andrew Mellon Associates, Rockefellar Associates, E. F. Hutton Associates, William Knudsen of General Motors, and the Pew family of Sun Oil.

J. Howard Pew - of Sun oil was a friend and supporter of Robert Welch, who later founded the right-wing John Birch Society.

Grayson Murphy - Director of Goodyear, Bethlehem Steel and a group of J.P. Morgan banks.

William Doyle - Former state commander of the American Legion and a central plotter of the coup.

John Davis - Former Democratic presidential candidate and a senior attorney for J.P. Morgan.

Al Smith - Roosevelt's bitter political foe from New York. Smith was a former governor of New York and a codirector of the American Liberty League.

John J. Raskob - A high-ranking Du Pont officer and a former chairman of the Democratic Party. In later decades, Raskob would become a "Knight of Malta," a Roman Catholic Religious Order with a high percentage of CIA spies, including CIA Directors William Casey, William Colby and John McCone.

Robert Clark - One of Wall Street's richest bankers and stockbrokers.

Gerald MacGuire - Bond salesman for Clark, and a former commander of the Connecticut American Legion. MacGuire was the key recruiter to General Butler.

The plotters attempted to recruit General Smedley Butler to lead the coup. They selected him because he was a war hero who was popular with the troops. The plotters felt his good reputation was important to make the troops feel confident that they were doing the right thing by overthrowing a democratically elected president. However, this was a mistake: Butler was popular with the troops because he identified with them. That is, he was a man of the people, not the elite. When the plotters approached General Butler with their proposal to lead the coup, he pretended to go along with the plan at first, secretly deciding to betray it to Congress at the right moment.

What the businessmen proposed was dramatic: they wanted General Butler to deliver an ultimatum to Roosevelt. Roosevelt would pretend to become sick and incapacitated from his polio, and allow a newly created cabinet officer, a "Secretary of General Affairs," to run things in his stead. The secretary, of course, would be carrying out the orders of Wall Street. If Roosevelt refused, then General Butler would force him out with an army of 500,000 war veterans from the American Legion. But MacGuire assured Butler the cover story would work:

"You know the American people will swallow that. We have got the newspapers. We will start a campaign that the President's health is failing. Everyone can tell that by looking at him, and the dumb American people will fall for it in a second…"

The businessmen also promised that money was no object: Clark told Butler that he would spend half his $60 million fortune to save the other half.

And what type of government would replace Roosevelt's New Deal? MacGuire was perfectly candid to Paul French, a reporter friend of General Butler's:

"We need a fascist government in this country… to save the nation from the communists who want to tear it down and wreck all that we have built in America. The only men who have the patriotism to do it are the soldiers, and Smedley Butler is the ideal leader. He could organize a million men overnight."

Indeed, it turns out that MacGuire travelled to Italy to study Mussolini's fascist state, and came away mightily impressed. He wrote glowing reports back to his boss, Robert Clark, suggesting that they implement the same thing.

If this sounds too fantastic to believe, we should remember that by 1933, the crimes of fascism were still mostly in the future, and its dangers were largely unknown, even to its supporters. But in the early days, many businessmen openly admired Mussolini because he had used a strong hand to deal with labor unions, put out social unrest, and get the economy working again, if only at the point of a gun. Americans today would be appalled to learn of the many famous millionaires back then who initially admired Hitler and Mussolini: Henry Ford, John D. Rockefeller, John and Allen Dulles (who, besides being millionaires, would later become Eisenhower's Secretary of State and CIA Director, respectively), and, of course, everyone on the above list. They disavowed Hitler and Mussolini only after their atrocities grew to indefensible levels.

The plot fell apart when Butler went public. The general revealed the details of the coup before the McCormack-Dickstein Committee, which would later become the notorious House Un-American Activities Committee. (In the 50s, this committee would destroy the lives of hundreds of innocent Americans with its communist witch hunts.) The Committee heard the testimony of Butler and French, but failed to call in any of the coup plotters for questioning, other than MacGuire. In fact, the Committee whitewashed the public version of its final report, deleting the names of powerful businessmen whose reputations they sought to protect. The most likely reason for this response is that Wall Street had undue influence in Congress also.

Even more alarming, the elite-controlled media failed to pick up on the story, and even today the incident remains little known. The elite managed to spin the story as nothing more than the rumors and hearsay of Butler and French, even though Butler was a Quaker of unimpeachable honesty and integrity. Butler, appalled by the cover-up, went on national radio to denounce it, but with little success.

Butler was not vindicated until 1967, when journalist John Spivak uncovered the Committee's internal, secret report. It clearly confirmed Butler's story. . .
 
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Keynes

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IIRC Butler was a great soldier but a bit of a political crank. By the time the alleged conspiracy happened, he had already delivered speeches denouncing Wall Street so he was really an unlikely co-conspirator. He was an admirable man, twice decorated with the Congressional Medal of Honor, and a founder of the League Against War & Fascism - but the accusations against Wall Street were a bit over the top.
 
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Originally posted by Keynes
IIRC Butler was a great soldier but a bit of a political crank. By the time the alleged conspiracy happened, he had already delivered speeches denouncing Wall Street so he was really an unlikely co-conspirator. He was an admirable man, twice decorated with the Congressional Medal of Honor, and a founder of the League Against War & Fascism - but the accusations against Wall Street were a bit over the top.

General Butler was awarded 18 medals for bravery, and was a man of unimpeachable honesty, who loved his men and his country. He put his life on the line many times in defending the liberty and freedoms for which America stood. His outspoken words, while not couched in politically correct jargon, were the truth as he firmly believed it to be.

General Butler is one of the truly great unsung heroes of the Twentieth Century. . .
 

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Well, it wasn't like the brits were without a chance. Singapore would have been held without problems with proper management. But General Percival was one of the most incompetent leaders in WW2, losing Singapore to a force less than a tenth of his own.
 

Derek Pullem

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Originally posted by Galleblære
Well, it wasn't like the brits were without a chance. Singapore would have been held without problems with proper management. But General Percival was one of the most incompetent leaders in WW2, losing Singapore to a force less than a tenth of his own.

My comment assumed that Singapore was lost. I'm not really sure that Singapore could have held out until relieved (by whom?). The best that the British could have expected would have been a larger version of the defense of Hong Kong or Bataan - brave but ultimately futile.
 

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Originally posted by Derek Pullem


My comment assumed that Singapore was lost. I'm not really sure that Singapore could have held out until relieved (by whom?). The best that the British could have expected would have been a larger version of the defense of Hong Kong or Bataan - brave but ultimately futile.

Percivil did have 130,000 men, and the Japanese where tinking about retreating if the British had not surrendered. In fact the Japanese were desperate for the surrender. If the Japanese had withdrawn back to Malaya what would happen next? Certainly the Japanese still had a lot of advantages here, but reinforcements were a not near by.
 

Derek Pullem

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Originally posted by King


Percivil did have 130,000 men, and the Japanese where tinking about retreating if the British had not surrendered. In fact the Japanese were desperate for the surrender. If the Japanese had withdrawn back to Malaya what would happen next? Certainly the Japanese still had a lot of advantages here, but reinforcements were a not near by.

They still have to be fed. I can't see a siege of Singapore working as Malta did for the British. The logistics would be a nightmare
 

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Originally posted by Derek Pullem


They still have to be fed. I can't see a siege of Singapore working as Malta did for the British. The logistics would be a nightmare

Oh I agree that the odds are that the Japanese would still win here, even after an intial repulse. However Chruchill was rather determined to keep Singapore, a lot of resources would of been thrown at keeping it. It might of been enough.
 

unmerged(9422)

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Originally posted by King


Percivil did have 130,000 men, and the Japanese where tinking about retreating if the British had not surrendered. In fact the Japanese were desperate for the surrender. If the Japanese had withdrawn back to Malaya what would happen next? Certainly the Japanese still had a lot of advantages here, but reinforcements were a not near by.

If the Japanese did retreat, I think that Malaya would've been invaded again, not too long after, and probably won that time. If the British won again, I think that the Japanese would'v kept on attacking and eventually would've won here. It was an important point, and it would've been easier for the Japanese to get more troops and weapons to the area than the British. The British could've called for reinforcements from India, however. But, the Japanese soldiers were also more skilled than the British soldiers. Many of the British soldiers were also over-confident in the beginning. Most of that probably would've been gone in a second invasion though. The British also didn't have tanks, as they found them useless in jungles. But, the Japanese brought tanks to Malaya and used them quite effectively. Were there tanks that the British would've been able to get to Malaya in time? That probably could've made a difference too. But, I think the Japanese eventually would've take Malaya if the British were to push them back in the first invasion. The Japanese were running out of ammunition and other supplies, which was the main reason the British surrender was so vital in the end.

Meiji-Tenno
 

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Originally posted by Meiji-Tenno


If the Japanese did retreat, I think that Malaya would've been invaded again, not too long after, and probably won that time. If the British won again, I think that the Japanese would'v kept on attacking and eventually would've won here. It was an important point, and it would've been easier for the Japanese to get more troops and weapons to the area than the British. The British could've called for reinforcements from India, however. But, the Japanese soldiers were also more skilled than the British soldiers. Many of the British soldiers were also over-confident in the beginning. Most of that probably would've been gone in a second invasion though. The British also didn't have tanks, as they found them useless in jungles. But, the Japanese brought tanks to Malaya and used them quite effectively. Were there tanks that the British would've been able to get to Malaya in time? That probably could've made a difference too. But, I think the Japanese eventually would've take Malaya if the British were to push them back in the first invasion. The Japanese were running out of ammunition and other supplies, which was the main reason the British surrender was so vital in the end.

Meiji-Tenno

I have no doubt that the Japanese were determined to get Singapore, it was an important port. I also think that the Japanese did have a lot of advantages, and the most likely of outcomes was that a retreat from Singapore would of only delayed the historical result. However you never know, was the point I would like to make.
 

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those resources would not have reached singapore.
 

unmerged(9422)

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Originally posted by King


I have no doubt that the Japanese were determined to get Singapore, it was an important port. I also think that the Japanese did have a lot of advantages, and the most likely of outcomes was that a retreat from Singapore would of only delayed the historical result. However you never know, was the point I would like to make.

Yes, I understand what you're saying.. Anything is possible. There's just a smaller chance for some things than others. It would actually be quite interesting to know what would've happened if the British had held Singapore.. Hmm.. :confused:

It would've got surrounded and eventually captured (I think), but you never know..

those resources would not have reached singapore.

The distance between Tokyo and Singapore is almost as far as London to New York, so the resources wouldn't have arrived in time, as you say. But, in the scenario I was speaking of, the Japanese would have retreated, got new supplies, and attacked Singapore again. :)

Meiji-Tenno
 

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Originally posted by Meiji-Tenno


Yes, I understand what you're saying.. Anything is possible. There's just a smaller chance for some things than others. It would actually be quite interesting to know what would've happened if the British had held Singapore.. Hmm.. :confused:

It would've got surrounded and eventually captured (I think), but you never know..

Meiji-Tenno

Let see the real problem that the British have is to hold Singapore you need control of the air. Now Britain did produce good fighters, British Naval avaition was not good. They used the Swordfish because they could not get the replacement to work. This would make the holding of Singapore very expensive in terms of planes. Then with the demnads of the North atlantic it would of been very difficult to send the ships out to contest control of the seas lanes around there. Britain would of probably needed help from America and just can't quite see the Americans doing it. However a quite a few decent fighter Squadrons would of improved the chances no end.
 

unmerged(9422)

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Originally posted by King


Let see the real problem that the British have is to hold Singapore you need control of the air. Now Britain did produce good fighters, British Naval avaition was not good. They used the Swordfish because they could not get the replacement to work. This would make the holding of Singapore very expensive in terms of planes. Then with the demnads of the North atlantic it would of been very difficult to send the ships out to contest control of the seas lanes around there. Britain would of probably needed help from America and just can't quite see the Americans doing it. However a quite a few decent fighter Squadrons would of improved the chances no end.

Yes, I see your points. The Japanese were advantageous in the air, and struck some heavy blows on the British with the sinking of the Prince of Wales and several other warships. A main problem for the British was that they were more concerned with defending the Isles from a feared German invasion. And their greatest ground, sea, and air units were in the West. They had a smaller amount of such skilled units in Malaya. Many of the ones that were there before had been called to Europe for extra defence. The Americans could've helped (Remember, this was after Pearl Harbor) but they probably wouldn't because they would've sooner supplied their own islands that were being attacked by the Japanese, plus they would have to pass through hostile territory to reach Singapore. For the Americans to make a difference here, the British would've had to beat the Japanese out of Malaya, forcing them to re-supply, then the U.S. would have to fight their way through to Singapore (Passing the Philippines, which I think they would've tried to save sooner than Singapore if they got that far) and then help the British. The English forces would probably also need to be reinforced by Indian squadrons, along with some fresh troops, supplies, aircraft, and possibly some ships from England. This could probably be done in about the time it took Yamashita to get his forces well supplied. But then, the Japanese probably would supply faster, fearing that the British would get resupplied and get help from the Americans. They would probably also bombard the area to harrass the British forces. The Japanese would probably also get reinforced with fresh troops, so the Japanese would still probably have a better chance for victory here. Especially because Yamashita is also usually thought of as a superior general to Percival, and the Japanese would probably be ready for an attack before the British were fully prepared. The American and British reinforcements would probably arrive during the fight, and perhaps keep it going on longer. The Japanese would call for more supplies and reinforcements, and in a few weeks (probably closer to two months, depending on how good the Allies reinforced :) ), Singapore would probably still fall. Very interesting scenario, by the way, King. :)

Meiji-Tenno
 

Derek Pullem

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The original plans for the defense of Singapore called for 360 first line aircraft. Some of the infantry reinforcements sent to Singapore were supposed to be compensation for the lack of aircraft (there were less than 160 aircraft when the Japanese attacked and many of these were second rate). Alot of the reinforcements were raw troops and had little or no experience of jungle conditions.

Percival was a timid general but if the MoD plans had been implemented, the defense of Singapore would have held the first assault. After all Yamashita was down to a couple of cups of rice a day and less than twenty rounds per man when he launched his attack. But the reasons why Singapore never got the reinforcements (Battle of Britain, Operation Sealion threat, the Blitz, Malta, the Western Desert) were also the reason why it would have fallen eventually IMHO.

It wasn't important enough to the British war aims.
 

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May 22, 2002
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Originally posted by Derek Pullem
The original plans for the defense of Singapore called for 360 first line aircraft. Some of the infantry reinforcements sent to Singapore were supposed to be compensation for the lack of aircraft (there were less than 160 aircraft when the Japanese attacked and many of these were second rate). Alot of the reinforcements were raw troops and had little or no experience of jungle conditions.

Percival was a timid general but if the MoD plans had been implemented, the defense of Singapore would have held the first assault. After all Yamashita was down to a couple of cups of rice a day and less than twenty rounds per man when he launched his attack. But the reasons why Singapore never got the reinforcements (Battle of Britain, Operation Sealion threat, the Blitz, Malta, the Western Desert) were also the reason why it would have fallen eventually IMHO.

It wasn't important enough to the British war aims.

Yes, it wasn't as important to the British military forces compared to other areas. But, this is a what if thing.. ;)
Thanks for the input! :)

Meiji-Tenno