A New Start
Cabinet
The first thing to do is to get more effective ministers into the cabinet. This is done by replacing the former armaments minister with Fujiwara Ginjiro, for a +10% increase in IC. Next is to replace the chief of the army with Umezu Yoshijiro for a -15% in supply consumption. Ozawa takes over for the navy with his carrier bonuses, a Inoue Shigeyoshi is installed for HIS carrier bonuses. Naval battles, IMO will be the most important component of a possible victory, so I want to help the navy out as much as possible, and carriers are a very important part of the navy. This gives me 4 points of dissent, but I feel it is worth it. I also change my slider one over to standing army to help with the future upgrades I'll need.
Technology
The tech front is also a place where Japan is severely lacking. Oil is the number one priority for Japan resource wise, so oil refining is a definite priority in the tech department. In preparation for new ship builds I also research Ship Assembly Line, which will come in handy in the future. I research Advanced Infantry Division just to get caught up, as my highest tech currently is 1941 Infantry. I am also behind in land techs, so I research Central Planning Doctrine to get a 10% increase in max org. I also research Carrier Aviation Doctrine for obvious reasons. That rounds up the new tech.
Resources
Theres my starting resources and IC. Its not too bad. Infact I am really only losing oil and energy at a noticeable rate. So far. But that oil loss is killer. If I lose all my oil, I lose. So I have got to conserve it. I will do this by keeping my planes grounded, unless my home islands are being bombed. Other than that, as of now, all air operations are grounded.
IC is in great shape though, and even if I lose all my colonial possessions, with my home islands intact I can probably live until '53 bar any Allied invasion. TC is not too bad either.
Production
Here is my production plan for the near future. As you can see, production is focused on consumer goods, to bring down the dissent from the minister changes and to bring up the moneys from the starting 0. Also focused on is supplies, and reinforcements, but I will eventually get to upgrading after creating a stockpile and reinforcing.
In the production que(?) are four nice new carriers and their respective CAGs. Thanks to Paradox, Japan starts this scenario with 8 ships in the build que, 4 of them being carriers. The others are a cruiser, a destroyer, and two submarines, which I really don't have much use for. So I cancelled everything but the carriers, which spared me 12 IC. Also you can see the jump that was made by the minister changes, a full 12 IC. Not bad. That covers production for now.
National Comparisons
As can be seen, my Army isn't in too bad a shape. My real problem here is the inferiority of my equipment and how scattered my forces are. Still it can take the Chinese down pretty easy, so thats a start.
My navy, however, is in worse shape. Outnumbered over 5 to 1 in total ships by the big powers the UK and US, I am truly an underdog here. However, I do have quite a bit of carriers left, and if I concentrate all my ships in one area at a time, I will have local superiority and should be able to inflict heavy losses on the enemy. So I still have a chance.
Airforce is well outnumbered, and the problem here is scattered forces and somewhat inferior tech. However I have researched nearly all the air doctrines so I am good in that department. If I concentrate forces I should be able to inflict good losses on the enemy. But that is for the future.
Theaters of Operation
Japan in this scenario has many theaters in which to fight, so it is best to cover the main ones to help clarify the situation.
China
The Chinese theater, the most relevent to my army. It is a huge theater, and one that sucks to fight while your fighting a war in the Pacific at the same time. Due to the nature of this theater, I want to get peace as fast as possible here, and then when things have settled in the other theaters, attack the Chinese again, this time crushing them. So I will want to deliver a knockout punch to their army, forcing them to sue for peace.
And this is how I'll do it. Attack the vulnerable southern provinces, and pocket the 25 divisions in the sailent. Then, with help from my Japanese divisions in Manchuria which I will strategically redeploy to Nanjing, I will slowly reduce the pocket until all those Chinese divisions are dead. Then I will move west and conquer a severely weakened Nationalist China and its warlords, or if they offer a peace before then, accept it. Its a surefire win-win for me in any case if it works.
Burma
Burma is also a critical theater. Here I will be more on the defensive than in China, as I have too few troops in the area to not be. I take military control of Siam, and move their divisions from Shan States to Chiang Rai. I also move the divisions stationed in Kalewa to Mandalay, and those troops in Mandalay once threatened with encirclement, will also move to Chiang Rai. The divisions in Rangoon will move east to Sittang. Two more divisions from Singapore will also be stationed in Sittang, creating a pretty effective two province defense. This line will hopefully in the future be reinforced by troops in China.
The Philippines
This is a very important theater in the Pacific. Luckily it starts out quite well protected. With 10 divisions, 2 of those tank, and a competent air force, it will be a tough nut for the Americans to crack. But they most likely will try to attack, probably still mad about what happened several years ago. This is understandable, but while I understand their anger, I will not let them have these islands back.
Other Theaters
On New Guinea three of my divisions are pretty much DOA thanks to being encircled by the Americans, so I will not care to much about losing them. The Dutch East Indies are rather vulnerable to attack, with only a division or two defending the important islands, so hopefully they won't try to invade there. My Pacific island garrisons are also vulnerable, but they will all fight to the end. Hopefully. Manchuria is defended only by Manchukuo divisions, but that should be ok as I probably won't be at war with the Soviets until after Germany surrenders, and by then I should be ready.
good luck in this one tho!
