The Revenge of the Bear
Chapter 37: Italy on the Crossroads
The position of Italy in the balance of powers on the European continent could not be underestimated. Whilst Italy did not have the most powerful army in Europe and had an extremely weak navy, she had the industrial capacity to begin stamping regiments upon battleships at any moment, should the often deadlocked Parliament finally pull its act together and take concrete initiatives. Should Italy begin building up her naval capacities quickly enough, she could very well seal the Mediterannean to her ennemies, or at least make their naval deployments problematic at best.
Germany's interest in keeping Italy within her power block was, thus, extremely clear. A powerful Italy could cause extreme headache to the Russians in the Mediterranean and prevent the strengthening of the Russian naval battlegroups in the Baltic Sea. Unfortunately for Germany, her alliance with Italy was extremely fragilised by her alliance with Austria-Hungary. Indeed, Italy and Austria made lousy allies at best, with mutual rivalry and animosity dating back decades.
Italian participation in the alliance with Germany was fragile and could...
blow up at any moment
In fact, Italy was at a crossroads of sorts. The unification of the peninsula having been accomplished, the country saw itself left behind in the colonial race. A unified Italy was bound to burst out of her borders sooner or later. And in this, the Kingdom overall had three major vectors it could explore:
Vector A: French territories. The "reclamation" of Savoy and Nice was a goal expressed by some in the political leadership. However, it was not deemed a realistic goal. Instead, French North Africa was seen as a possibility of colonial expansionism, that would fit Italian interests entirely.
Vector B: Austro-Hungarian territories, which included such administrative divisions as the Kingdom of Venetia, the Kustenland, Istria, Fiume and Dalmatia. These lands, inhabited by Italians, were seen as essential to complete the "Risorgimento", which would see the reunification of all Italian lands into one state.
Vector C: Ottoman territories, and most notably Lybia. From an Italian perspective, a "two in one" package of both Ottoman and French North Africas would have been the best option. However, as the Ottomans and the French were in different power blocks, one had to choose wisely.
Vector D: Egypt. Gaining full and complete domination over Egypt was also considered a possibility. As Egypt was allied with the Ottoman Empire, the package could very well include Libya.
To B or not to B? Various combinations of AC/DC were also on the agenda.
The final position of Italy in the conflict of interests between the various Great Powers was, thus, far from being decided. The Kingdom had interests in all of the Entente, Mitteleuropa and the Eastern Alliance. However, as the Eastern Alliance and Mitteleuropa moved closer and closer together, it appeared that Italy had the most to gain in case of an alignment with the Entente. On condition, of course, that in any hypothetical war between the Entente and the Mitteleuropa, the former won.
And the Entente victory was far from guaranteed. It was true that Russia had the most powerful standing army in the world, and the fourth most powerful navy in the world. France herself also had an impressive and powerful military, with the world's third most powerful navy. However, when combined together, the Entente powers and Russia's Balkan allies were at equal odds with the combined Mitteleropa-Eastern Alliance block. Should the British Empire tilt the balance in favour of the Germans, and the outcome of any confrontation between the Great Powers could very well not at all go Russia's way.
On the other hand, luring Italy away from the Germans and gaining her as an ally could tilt the balance Russia's way and, at least on land, balance out the powers should Britain opt to side with Germany. Thus, it was an open secret that Italy was energetically courted by Russian diplomacy to at least guarantee Italian neutrality in case of conflict between Germany and Russia. This in turn could guarantee that Greek soldiers would be able to be used against the Turkish armies, and the Austrians would not receive any reinforcements on the Adriatic front.
Together with Britain, Italy was a valuable merchandise on the European diplomatic market. And whoever could pay the highest price would surely win them over, if not collectively then at least individually.