[The Resistance] Statistics and General Discussion Thread

[Cliges]

Ok, only 6 days late.

http://forum.paradoxplaza.com/forum...stance-(Avalon)-XIX-The-Cattle-Raid-of-Cooley

Better delayed than never, I hope.

 

[Falc]

Okay, had an idea about the slightly-depressing ability of the Avalon Assassin to just win the game at the end.

Now, this is impossible without a GM, but what about stating that the Assassin has to pick a target for every Mission.

If he picks the Wizard, then the Mission fails, but this is kept hidden from the players. In other words, if no sabotages occured, the update will state that the Mission succeeded.

It It would only be once the game should end but doesn't that it'd become clear that the Assassin managed to cause a failed Mission. Or, inversely, if the Spies win two Missions and the Resistance has one, but that one was failed by the Assassin, so the game ends sooner than expected.


It would retain the basic fact that if the Wizard exposes himself too much, his side loses. But unlike the other variant, the Resistance is much less likely to play perfectly and still lose by pure chance.

Any thoughts?

 

[randakar]

What does an Avalon Asassin do, exactly?
I haven't followed the new game enough to really know ..

 

[unmerged(281782)]

Okay, had an idea about the slightly-depressing ability of the Avalon Assassin to just win the game at the end.

Now, this is impossible without a GM, but what about stating that the Assassin has to pick a target for every Mission.

If he picks the Wizard, then the Mission fails, but this is kept hidden from the players. In other words, if no sabotages occured, the update will state that the Mission succeeded.

It It would only be once the game should end but doesn't that it'd become clear that the Assassin managed to cause a failed Mission. Or, inversely, if the Spies win two Missions and the Resistance has one, but that one was failed by the Assassin, so the game ends sooner than expected.


It would retain the basic fact that if the Wizard exposes himself too much, his side loses. But unlike the other variant, the Resistance is much less likely to play perfectly and still lose by pure chance.

Any thoughts?

Err, let me put you proposal in my own words. You want for Assassin to have not one, but at least three chances to get the Wizard. Don't you see the problem?

 

[unmerged(281782)]

What does an Avalon Asassin do, exactly?
I haven't followed the new game enough to really know ..

If Resistance wins, he gets a chance to kill one of them. If he kills Merlin (Resistance guy knowing all Spies), then Spies win instead.

 

[sexytoes]

If Resistance wins, he gets a chance to kill one of them. If he kills Merlin (Resistance guy knowing all Spies), then Spies win instead.

I haven't played Avalon yet but that is BS.

 

[Falc]

Err, let me put you proposal in my own words. You want for Assassin to have not one, but at least three chances to get the Wizard. Don't you see the problem?

Except that he gets zero feedback about it and if he does get it right, it's not the whole game that is lost but one single mission.

Let's look at the possibilities.

Option 1 is that the Resistance scores 3 missions but the game doesn't end yet. The Assassin now knows that one of the people he attacked on one of the previous successful missions has to be the Wizard, but since no further information was or is given, he's basically got a one in three chance of getting it right for the next mission otherwise his side still loses.

Option 2 is that the Spies win prematurely. The visible score could be 2-1 but if the Assassin got lucky on that one mission, game's over.



I am actually starting to wonder about the exact odds on these, though... Must calculate.

 

[unmerged(281782)]

Except that he gets zero feedback about it and if he does get it right, it's not the whole game that is lost but one single mission.

Let's look at the possibilities.

Option 1 is that the Resistance scores 3 missions but the game doesn't end yet. The Assassin now knows that one of the people he attacked on one of the previous successful missions has to be the Wizard, but since no further information was or is given, he's basically got a one in three chance of getting it right for the next mission otherwise his side still loses.

Option 2 is that the Spies win prematurely. The visible score could be 2-1 but if the Assassin got lucky on that one mission, game's over.



I am actually starting to wonder about the exact odds on these, though... Must calculate.

Well, not exactly zero. Anyway, better look at it this way: what would score be without this and how it changes the game:
3-0: Either all 3 guesses missed, in which case it was lost anyway, or one hit, in which case he would still need to guess at the same moment as usual. No real difference.
3-1: Either all 3 guesses missed, in which case it was lost anyway, or one hit, in which case not only the Assassin would get to guess as usual, but also he forced the game to go to Mission 5, which is far from being guaranteed to succeed on its own. Improvement for Spies.
3-2: The Assassin had 3 guesses instead of 1 to hit Merlin. Colossal buff for Spies.
Resistance loss: no improvement for Resistance either, obviously.

 

[Falc]

The odds don't particularly work out, due to the unfortunate effect that once the Assassin does know he's had an effect, the possible Wizards have been significantly reduced.

If the Resistance reach a 3-0 'victory', the three tries at 1/6 odds result in approx 60% chance of a hit, which then needs another hit at 1/3 odds to win the game, which means 20% which is higher than the 1/6 he'd have from a single try.

Oh well, back to the drawing board

 

[sexytoes]

With 6 resistance players there is 1/6 chance that the asssassin will single-handedly win the game.
The better the Wizard plays, the more more obvious it is that he is a wizard. So not only giving spies an assassin is a buff; but informing the Wizard who the spies are, is in fact, also a buff to the spies.

 

[Falc]

Someone should consider starting a new game...

 

[PanzerCorps]

Someone should consider starting a new game...

It has been done

 

[PanzerCorps]

Come on, someone needs to host so all can play! I'd do it again but Tuesday starts my exam month so I should be even less available than I was last game...

 

[PanzerCorps]

And here we go again:

Back to Resistance, everyone!

 

[Cliges]

So how do we change the rules of resistance in such a manner that zombieism and zero activity in thread are dis incentivised?

We could make it more difficult for the spies or the other people, but that just shifts the balance. Somehow the lacks an element that makes people want to say stuff about it.

We originally had rules to the effect that players had to make some sort of explanation or justification for their vote. I'd prefer to not have "voted" be the sole reason given. Maybe we could go back to the original rule on that, but then there's the problem of regulating what makes an "acceptable" post for justification purposes.

 

[Cliges]

Also, I'd add the rule-set that we played by further back in the past usually seemed to favor more activity. While I'm not too inclined to re-read all the old threads, the problem seemed to that the Spies generally had an easier time.

 

[Falc]

I'd say it greatly depends on the players. Unfortunately, I know that if I'm Resistance, I tend to look quite actively for spies, work out theories, etc. while I mostly shut up as Spy because I know I'll end up saying something that outs me.

Some other players are always chatty, some always quiet. You see it in WW too, but it's much less obvious because there's more people in the game until the final stages. A 7-player Resistance game with the wrong players and/or role distribution can easily start off dead quiet and never pick up steam. I'm not 100% certain how to fix that, though.

Maybe going back to fixed deadlines would help, it forces people into a more sturctured process of activity.

 

[Cliges]

Maybe going back to fixed deadlines would help, it forces people into a more sturctured process of activity.

Ideally, but I fear it could also lead to confusion and people missing the deadline.

 

[PanzerCorps]

Yeah, I think fixed deadline would help a lot.

Well, it helps move the game along at a faster pace so you get more posts/time but doesn't necessarily make people more active.

I think banning private voting would help. It does hurt the resistance slightly, but we can apply balancing factors. But when you are forced to make a vote in public, you'll at least be expected to explain it - or you'll be asked to if you don't.

Otherwise, I don't think you can really do much to force people to be active - it is every player's choice how much he wants to post. The more something is compulsory, the less fun it is.

Maybe it would be a good idea to make some nice small modifications to the roles, something like mini-avalon, and do something like allow people some choice of what role exactly to be. Because as Falc said, lots of people are more active as certain roles than others.

I know all that's pretty vague, maybe we should try it out though?

Some examples of mini-roles would be something like a resistance member who gets the name of a spy if he is on the same team as him for round 2, or someone(preferably a spy?) who would at some point be allowed to send just one PM to someone else... It's all about giving every individual person something to do other than the Greater Cause. I think that the more personal it is, the more likely you are to be active.

I don't know, just a thought. What do you say?

 

[Falc]

Fully agreed on not making activity compulsory. Little tidbits here and there to lure people out of their shell is what we need, not blunt force.

You do bring up a good point in that I believe Avalon rules are a bit less prone to inactivity. The more varied setups lead to more uncertainty and there's more chance of someone actually claiming a role without necessarily hurting their side too badly. If only we could fix that Assassin bit...

(I must also say that the RP traits from last game worked for me until the point where I basically assumed I had no credibility left as Resistance. Bit hard to maintain a pessimistic Resistance persona when you're actually a Spy...)