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I'm not really familiar with google docs, however I would like to remind everyone that all discussions about this spreadsheet must be done in the thread, not in any comment sections that google docs has.
To clarify, the spreadsheet is okay, discussing it anywhere other than this thread isn't.
It's not a regular shared document, I used the publish option so there is no editing possible, you can't see who else is viewing it or comment etc. and playing around with the link is fruitless too, since the original is set to private.
Let's go through all combinations of Spy/Resistance with MC and Tamius:
A) Both Resistance
Tamius not using the card on M1 is weird
aedan is the spy sabotaging both missions
I'd call this the worst case from an analytical point of view. in my eyes this absolutely bars aedan from M3
B) MC Spy, Tamius Resistance
this makes no sense whatsoever cause there would be no reason for Tamius to say MC is Resistance after using KACEOY on him
C) MC Resistance, Tamius Spy
at least one spy in Cliges, aedan & npstr
but why would tamius clear MC then? how credible would his claim of MC being spy have been anyways?
notice those card exchanges between tamius and cliges. amateurish spy things? In any way it implicates tamius more, cause Cliges' distribution of cards was random while tamius might be trying to discredit Cliges by giving him back a card.
I am not a spy and if aedan was either he or tamius chose not to sabotage M1
D) Both Spies
this would pretty much clear aedan, or would he really put all three spies on M1? coordination to stay at one sabotage would have been almost impossible too I guess
the coordination argument also makes MC and tamius themselves a little less likely to be spymates
Both M1 and M2 being the fifth proposal really sucks, since they get approved 8-0.
The closest any other team ever got to being approved was my team (npstr, aedan, rovsea, falc) on M2. This does not speak for the team, especially the Hazbot vote/unvote was weird.
So who are we left with anyways?
Rovsea has neither been on a mission nor was he involved in any card deals, same goes for Falc.
Hazbot wasn't part of a mission too, but he was casting his votes really late, and he had a weird vote switch. Also he got a card from Tamius.
One thing I noticed: While players if chosen for a team (not the fifth proposal) almost always vote an early approve (mostly for being on it) or reject for good reasons, on the fourth proposal of M2 both aedan and MC as teammembers voted last. Can't say whether this is a baddie or a goodie tell, or I am interpreting too much into that. Would love some input from other players on this.
I have trouble coming up with a suggested course of action due to lack of experience. I don't expect myself to get leader again (pretty sure we will see Hazbot using his card) so at least I will write down the team I would propose if I were with the information we have from M1 and M2: Rovsea, Falc, MC and myself, picking MC over aedan cause in my last proposal there was that weird Hazbot vote, which could have been caused by aedan being on it.
We should be aware that Cliges and aedan both have Passionate Speech, so everyone take that into account when casting your votes.
Reading this again I notice this tunnels pretty hard. But I don't see where we can get any more information on Falc and Rovsea (or myself for that matter). I don't see any anomalies in the votes. Rovsea did write some posts that weren't clever (fourth proposal M1 Cliges switched to reject cause of that), but that's it.
Sigh.
A) Both Resistance
Tamius not using the card on M1 is weird
aedan is the spy sabotaging both missions
I'd call this the worst case from an analytical point of view. in my eyes this absolutely bars aedan from M3
B) MC Spy, Tamius Resistance
this makes no sense whatsoever cause there would be no reason for Tamius to say MC is Resistance after using KACEOY on him
C) MC Resistance, Tamius Spy
at least one spy in Cliges, aedan & npstr
but why would tamius clear MC then? how credible would his claim of MC being spy have been anyways?
notice those card exchanges between tamius and cliges. amateurish spy things? In any way it implicates tamius more, cause Cliges' distribution of cards was random while tamius might be trying to discredit Cliges by giving him back a card.
I am not a spy and if aedan was either he or tamius chose not to sabotage M1
D) Both Spies
this would pretty much clear aedan, or would he really put all three spies on M1? coordination to stay at one sabotage would have been almost impossible too I guess
the coordination argument also makes MC and tamius themselves a little less likely to be spymates
Both M1 and M2 being the fifth proposal really sucks, since they get approved 8-0.
The closest any other team ever got to being approved was my team (npstr, aedan, rovsea, falc) on M2. This does not speak for the team, especially the Hazbot vote/unvote was weird.
So who are we left with anyways?
Rovsea has neither been on a mission nor was he involved in any card deals, same goes for Falc.
Hazbot wasn't part of a mission too, but he was casting his votes really late, and he had a weird vote switch. Also he got a card from Tamius.
One thing I noticed: While players if chosen for a team (not the fifth proposal) almost always vote an early approve (mostly for being on it) or reject for good reasons, on the fourth proposal of M2 both aedan and MC as teammembers voted last. Can't say whether this is a baddie or a goodie tell, or I am interpreting too much into that. Would love some input from other players on this.
I have trouble coming up with a suggested course of action due to lack of experience. I don't expect myself to get leader again (pretty sure we will see Hazbot using his card) so at least I will write down the team I would propose if I were with the information we have from M1 and M2: Rovsea, Falc, MC and myself, picking MC over aedan cause in my last proposal there was that weird Hazbot vote, which could have been caused by aedan being on it.
We should be aware that Cliges and aedan both have Passionate Speech, so everyone take that into account when casting your votes.
Reading this again I notice this tunnels pretty hard. But I don't see where we can get any more information on Falc and Rovsea (or myself for that matter). I don't see any anomalies in the votes. Rovsea did write some posts that weren't clever (fourth proposal M1 Cliges switched to reject cause of that), but that's it.
Sigh.
Please note the little forum alerts I tend to rely on seem to be wonky... Cards and all will follow in about 5 hours.
I'm thinking that Tamius and aedan are probably both spies. Aedan is both a renowned first day saboteur and the proposer of M1, so it makes no sense for Tamius not to use his card on him if he's resistance, so instead he's covering for aedan while trying to leave it unclear what exactly is going on (if he says aedan is cleared and is later contradicted, that's two spies in trouble, if he implicates MC then he's basically removed from teams and possibly people wonder why he didn't go for aedan, if he clears MC he implicates aedan, or he could have just outed aedan as a spy). If Tamius is actually resistance and just didn't use his card then he's more or less destroyed any chance we have of analyzing our way to victory. To me, aedan is a tad more suspicious than MC, but I definitely think we need to consider carefully before proposing even 1 team. Npstr and Cliges strike me as being unlikely spies for some reason. Worst case scenario is Tamius is resistance, forgot to use KACEOY on Mission 1, and now we have noway to successfully analyze what's going on.
npstr, thanks for the sheet.
tamius in round 1 approved a team he wasn't on to start with, then rejected all three teams he was proposed on. I'm going to call that spy behaviour: reject a team you're on, sabotage if it goes through anyway, point out you didn't want that team in the first place.
This then casts suspicion on Hazbot and Cliges because he gave them cards. I think the value of a String Leader cannot be ignored so I'll proceed assuming Hazbot is a spy.
Meaning we need one more spy from Aedan, npstr, Cliges and MC, with aedan and MC most likely IMHO.
Therefore:
Successor Nomination to npstr
In the Spotlight to Rovsea
PROPOSAL:
Falc
Rovsea
npstr
Cliges
APPROVE
tamius in round 1 approved a team he wasn't on to start with, then rejected all three teams he was proposed on. I'm going to call that spy behaviour: reject a team you're on, sabotage if it goes through anyway, point out you didn't want that team in the first place.
This then casts suspicion on Hazbot and Cliges because he gave them cards. I think the value of a String Leader cannot be ignored so I'll proceed assuming Hazbot is a spy.
Meaning we need one more spy from Aedan, npstr, Cliges and MC, with aedan and MC most likely IMHO.
Therefore:
Successor Nomination to npstr
In the Spotlight to Rovsea
PROPOSAL:
Falc
Rovsea
npstr
Cliges
APPROVE
If you go back to page 2 I approved purely to be contrary, as it looked clear the team was to be rejected whatever happened. I'll make sure not to do the same in the future, I guess.
And I'm not sure if I posted this publicly, though I certainly explained it to Jerman in private, but I was rejecting the teams I was on so that I could hand out the cards.
What on earth am I even going to do with In The Spotlight? If we have a sabotaged mission we've lost anyways. I think that a spy team of Hazbot + 2 of Aedan/MC/Tamius might be likely. I'll think about this one before approving or rejecting.
Well I had to give it to someone. Maybe we might get some use out of it in mission 4 if we get to that.
If this mission is successful we can easily force a successful mission 4 by keeping whatever we have here and adding somebody. I think that's worth keeping in mind, but first, the hurdle of a successful Mission 3.
This team only works if both Tamius and Madchemist are spies, which I don't find terribly likely, though it's at least possible. Hazbot would have to be the third spy as well obviously. Which isn't impossible, but I'm not convinced. If madchemist was a spy, why would he insist on getting his team passed rather than Hazbots? He'd be on both teams, and since he was on the first team, he'd sabotage again, so no danger of a double sabotage. Had he just accepted Hazbot's team, he would've passed out the cards, which could be a major boon. Combined with the slight issue of potential coordination issues between Tamius and Madchemist being spies, I think Madchemist is an unlikely enough spy that I'm not happy with both him and I left off the team. The chances of me being the sole resistance member left off this team is too small.
Reject
Reject
Remarkably enough, I agree with everyone who says I should be on it.
That said, this is a team worth seriously considering even despite my absence, if only because I do see tamius/aedan/Hazbot as one of the more likely possible spy teams. But the bar it has to clear is obviously pretty high.
The team does lack the people about whom I'm most worried, but I don't know if that's reason enough to approve. Aedan rejecting is a slight bit of reassurance, and I don't know exactly what to make of MC playing for time.
Approve
I'm a little wary, but it seems like it would be among the safer of possible teams right now.
Approve
I'm a little wary, but it seems like it would be among the safer of possible teams right now.
Given Madchemist supported the last mission, I can't think of any likely possibility where he's a spy, so a team lacking both me and him is going to have a spy on it.
REJECT
REJECT
madchemist and aedan both being spies is so unlikely that leaving them both off leaves no room for mistakes. And I think Cliges would be such a mistake.
Reject
Reject
