[The Resistance] Game 35: White Birds on a Blue Background

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madchemist

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Al Shoe al Aziz, chem and yourself. Then we can approve it.

I could live with that team. Probably like it even better with snoop, but a KACEOY on Dex and another on myself would probably suffice.

Okay, so you disagree with my analysis? Guess I'll have to assume you're a spy.

Not sure why you insist that you can't tell any difference between aedan and myself. Aedan being a spy makes a lot more sense, given how the game has gone.

Why madchemist?

I need a team approved, and a sabotage, so that I can post some triangles - I've made them (not recommended for a 10-player game) but we still have far too many possibilities.

I'd prefer a team approved with no sabotage. And I can help achieve that, too.

I don't want MC on the team as per Falc's analysis.

Reject unless changed

Although wasn't there something about three failed teams meaning a loss?

:(

Seriously, why not pick me? Granted, you don't need to figure out all the Resistance members in a 10-player game in order to win, but leaving off a resistance member and a spy makes it harder to pick the goodies out of the remaining players. Obviously it hurts if you pick the spy and not the resistance member, but I'm not the spy, and I can easily checked by KACEOY.

Madchem is definitely the less likely spy than Aedan. Just looking at their banter since the mission tells us that, and we want to add as many trustworthy player as possible. 2 randoms with an eye on them tells us almost nothing new, aside from being more likely to fail than a team with madchem.

Snoop is right. If I didn't know better, I'd think he was a spy, which is the only way for him to be certain about it. :laugh: But you can and should trust his insights here.

Why do you think madchemist is so likely to be cleared? He's opposed any team that doesn't have himself on it, because that would mean someone else on his spy team would have to sabotage instead. If a spy can sabotage 2 teams by themselves with this set-up then the game's pretty much over. Putting madchemist on a team is guaranteeing a lose for the resistance. But I'm starting to think you aren't a resistance member.

Well that's a silly argument. I've rejected teams without me because the ones that have been proposed have people I regarded as likely spies on them (e.g. Xarkan, Kai), not because I wasn't on them. Not being on a team means I have to be very confident about all the other players in order to approve.
 

alxeu

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Reject

I mean, if this is getting no confidenced, I should at least try to save Al-Aziz the card...
 

snoopdogg

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Reject

I mean, if this is getting no confidenced, I should at least try to save Al-Aziz the card...

There's only 1 proposal after this. If Aziz is a spy, unlikely as it is, that means game over for us if he still has the card. Trying to save it is suspicious.. :mellow:
 

aedan777

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There's only 1 proposal after this. If Aziz is a spy, unlikely as it is, that means game over for us if he still has the card. Trying to save it is suspicious.. :mellow:

Except alxeu has checked Al-aziz, and I have checked alxeu. So both of us know al Aziz is a resistance member, meaning her holding NC is no threat.
 

aedan777

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You might know it. No one else does. It still looks suspicious. NC's are for throwing away before they can end the game.

If you want to be paranoid then sure, you could take that position. However I was challenging your statement 'Trying to save it is suspicious' when really if alxeu wasn't acting absolutely certain that al-aziz was a resistance member, it'd be more suspicious.
 

aedan777

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Hmmm...

I haven´t even made any proposal...

So is there a point proposing one if it´s approved and no confidence is used?

And tell me who is Al Shoe?

It is rather funny having all the votes without a proposal. It won't necessarily be NCed, depends on the mission you propose. And Al Shoe= Alxeu, because we had an argument over pronunciation a while ago.
 

aedan777

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Again, I'd obviously prefer to be on it, but it does have two confirmed resistance members. I'm beginning to become wary of Falc simply because he's being put on every team without question. Though I doubt the next team will be any better. Rejecting the team would bring it to me faster, but I don't have people I want on a team particularly so, besides myself, and no one seems to be wanting that.

Approve

Because Dexander is kind of giving me resistance vibes, and perhaps spies wouldn't be so willing to put a fellow spymate falc on a team, if we assume at least one of the previous leaders was a spy, which is reasonable.
 

Falc

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Like I've stated earlier, at this point it's not really important who goes along with Alxeu and Al-Aziz, as long as it's neither Madchemist nor Aedan.

So APPROVE despite the looming No Confidence.

Al-Aziz, please consider not using the No Confidence. If you do change your mind, DO NOT TELL US. Send it in PM to the GM. The less the spies know, the better.
 

Falc

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As for why I'm getting proposed a lot lately, maybe it's because I'm talking sense, while some other people seem more interested in ordering people around and making them do things that might not be in the resistance's best interests.

I wonder why they're doing that...
 

madchemist

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OK, I'd best explain why Falc's insistence on leaving me off the mission is outright insanity. I finally have some time to do so. No time for RP here; this is important.

Because of the previous missions, it is obvious that at least one of aedan and myself must be a spy. Let's enumerate the cases, shall we?

Case 1: Both of us are spies.

All I can say here is, if we were both spies and managed to pull this off the way events have transpired, we deserve a victory and I deserve to be kicked for my stupidity half a dozen times (yes, at one and the same time). Here's why: On mission 1, I use my card on aedan. If I'm a spy, it should be completely, painfully obvious that I should sabotage, since the coordination has already been set up for us, and since if I don't do it we aren't going to get a second opportunity to coordinate easily. Let's say, for some reason, that I decide not to do so. Then on the very next mission, we somehow come to the conclusion that one of us should sabotage and the other should not, and manage to pull that one off perfectly. Hopefully, it's obvious that the chain of events required here is extraordinarily difficult (though not theoretically impossible).

Case 2: I am a spy, aedan is not. This would be explained thusly: since I used ITS on aedan, for me to sabotage would require me to blame alxeu and aedan at one and the same time, which might entail some risk of failing if I had doubts in my abilities. By delaying for a mission, I only have to accuse aedan, which creates some doubt and makes it a little more plausible, perhaps. This case is possible, I will admit. It conflicts with my preferred style as a spy (sabotage early and often, because it's more important to fail missions than not be revealed as a spy), but you might be able to suggest why I would do that and be not altogether wholly off the mark.

Case 3: I am not a spy and aedan is. Aedan doesn't want to reveal on mission 1 because of ITS, so he supports. On mission 2, he is under no such compulsion, and can easily fail the mission. Simple, straightforward, and makes perfect sense. (Side note: personally, had I been in his shoes, I sabotage anyway. Failing mission 1 is huge for the spies, and entirely worth revealing a single spy, especially because of the chaos it could cause. But that's just me.)

So let's say, hypothetically, that you have correctly dismissed the possibility of case 1, but are completely unable to decide between case 2 and case 3 (even though I feel it should be obvious that 3 is correct). You need to pick 4 players for a mission; in group 1, there are 2 players with one spy, so in group 2, there are 8 players with 3 spies (let's say you're in group 2, and that you know you personally are resistance, and need to pick 3 players, with group 2 containing 7 and 3 spies).

Let's also assume, for simplicity, that alxeu and al-Aziz are good (which I find likely enough, as alxeu should have sabotaged mission 1 as a spy, and the coordination issues on mission 2 rear their ugly head again if he's a spy there).

If you randomly select the last player from group 2, your chances are only 2/5 of success. This is actually worse than guessing randomly between aedan and myself! And you have information on us, so unless you get absolutely no read on either of us from everything we've said, you should be able to do even better than that.

Therefore, your choice to leave both of us off the mission is actually worse than putting one of us on, unless you sincerely believe that there's a reasonable chance that both of us are spies, which there is not.


*Phew*

OK then. Now the question is not whether or not I like this mission. Because I don't, not particularly, especially since aedan has voiced his support. The question is, do I want Aziz to use NC right now just in case (alxeu has a Take Responsibility card, and can steal it from her if he's a spy, and there are also future TR plot cards to worry about, potentially), should we let this mission proceed as is, or should we wait one more turn and let tamius choose a mission for us, risking that alxeu could torpedo it? I would prefer if Aziz chose to NC this mission, but I am willing to hear other suggestions.


Also, APPROVE

(Stupid Opinion Maker card not letting me change my vote if I decide this is a bad idea or if Aziz doesn't NC this.) :mad:
 

Falc

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Look, would I prefer to score this mission for the resistance? Yes, obviously. Is there any way to guarantee this? Nope.

Based on that, we should really incorporate a long-term view into our strategy and that means getting as much information as possible out of this mission.

Putting you or Aedan on REDUCES the information gained. For now, we have concrete info on 4 people. Getting more information about those same people is a worse idea than getting information on other people, because more information on other people will allow us to better analyze what we already know.

Look at it this way. You or Aedan are spies. We send you both on the mission, KACEOY on both. Whoever is the spy sabotages anyway and doesn't care if his cover is blown, because they scored two missions! They already did WAAAAY more than needed to win the game for their side. Resistance is 2-1 down and knows 1 spy. 1 single spy and 3 quite-likely resistance. I'm not too keen on those odds, to be honest.

Now imagine me and Dex go on the mission instead, both cards on us as well. Again, a spy needs to sabotage, otherwise the odds of the resistance winning in mission 4 is too big. Say Dexander sabotages. We know I'm clear and the way you and snoop have been arguing against me, you both end up very likely spies.

1 known spy, 3 pretty certain resistance AND 2 likely spies.
 

madchemist

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Apr 27, 2014
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Look, would I prefer to score this mission for the resistance? Yes, obviously. Is there any way to guarantee this? Nope.

I never argued that there was. Still, the path you've been advocating decreases the odds of success, and does not net you any additional useful information relative to what I am proposing, so far as I can see.

Based on that, we should really incorporate a long-term view into our strategy and that means getting as much information as possible out of this mission.

Putting you or Aedan on REDUCES the information gained. For now, we have concrete info on 4 people. Getting more information about those same people is a worse idea than getting information on other people, because more information on other people will allow us to better analyze what we already know.

Actually, gaining certitude about either of us (especially about me!) would be incredibly worthwhile. If you were to discover that I was a spy, that clears aedan, and by extension completely clears alxeu and Aziz. Three guaranteed resistance members isn't bad at all, especially when you only need 4 for the next mission, and there's an excellent chance that an identity-checking card will pop out (and even if not, you're still not too badly off, only needing to choose one out of two goodies). And there will be a guaranteed two additional role-checking cards by mission 5, so you should be able to find somebody safe no matter what, I think. And if I'm not a spy, well, you want me on the mission anyhow. So either way, it helps the Resistance, short- and long-term, to put me on this mission.

Look at it this way. You or Aedan are spies. We send you both on the mission, KACEOY on both. Whoever is the spy sabotages anyway and doesn't care if his cover is blown, because they scored two missions! They already did WAAAAY more than needed to win the game for their side. Resistance is 2-1 down and knows 1 spy. 1 single spy and 3 quite-likely resistance. I'm not too keen on those odds, to be honest.

That would be stupid. You don't make a mission that is guaranteed to fail when you get the exact same info from choosing only one of the two of us.

Now imagine me and Dex go on the mission instead, both cards on us as well. Again, a spy needs to sabotage, otherwise the odds of the resistance winning in mission 4 is too big. Say Dexander sabotages. We know I'm clear and the way you and snoop have been arguing against me, you both end up very likely spies.

1 known spy, 3 pretty certain resistance AND 2 likely spies.

OK, let's say we do this. Let's also say only one of you sabotages. Then we know one spy for sure (assuming alxeu and Aziz are good); why should we trust the other, necessarily? And even if we do, how are we any better off than in the scenario I just mentioned (where you know aedan or myself is a spy)? In your scenario, you still can't tell the difference between aedan and myself, apparently, and now you still have two other spies floating around who could easily get themselves onto a mission. What then?

Also, I know I haven't accused you (yet) of being a spy. I'm calling out your logic as deeply flawed, which it is, but that's a different matter entirely. Could you explain how I'm a likely spy if the mission proceeds as you laid out there? Because I'm really not following.