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H.Appleby

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I hope your butterfly doesn't affect HST and his novel The Rum Diary he's probably out in Puerto Rico as he was OTL. Actually, maybe HST can get his first break reporting on Puerto Rico, even though he's a sportswriter by trade. This guy and this chick might be looking for something to do since Castro's revolution isn't shaping up to be as grand as it might have been. In any event, there's bound to be a story that our favorite chronicler of the nineteen sixties and seventies can cover in his usual semi-coherent, profane and utterly brilliant manner. I'd like to see that included in an update covering the wider Caribbean situation. Trujillo's gonna bite it next year and his regime is already on the brink, Castro is still in Cuba and still seeking power, especially after losing Raul, the scum-sucking Duvaliers are still in power in Haiti and they'll be an interesting potential butterfly in Jamaica next year. They'll be fireworks in the Gulf of Mexico, you can count on it.

Now I have another question, have the Soviets developed a reliable ICBM yet? If not they'll still be looking for a missile base from which to threaten the American continent, perhaps TTL they might want to bring Haiti into their sphere. OTL Duvalier felt slighted by the American's favoritism to Trujillo and his anti-Haitian regime and with the blatantly racist Sparkman in office he probably is even unhappier than OTL. Plus he's an unscrupulous scumbag who has gone batshit insane due to brain damage brought on by a heart attack. The Russians could just give him some money and he'd do whatever they wanted, especially if he decided he hated the US. Maybe he'd even attempt to reunite Hispaniola or assassinate Trujillo. The possibilities that this loon creates are rather fascinating.

Meanwhile, what's going on in South America?
 
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Nathan Madien

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H.Appleby: Ah, yes. HST...certainly an interesting fellow to say the least.

Remind me to do an Caribbean update once I get into 1961. I have so much on my plate right now just covering 1960 that I am going to need a friendly reminder.

The answer is yes:

During his first week in office, Khrushchev held a meeting with top Soviet scientists and issued a directive: no longer would the Soviet military rely mainly on conventional weapons. Since the United States was wielding jets and rockets in order to project her power long-distance, the Soviet Union would do the same. Not only that, the Soviet Union would surpass her archrival in the great number game. Complaining about the existing missile gap resulting from his predecessor’s old-school military vision, Khrushchev ordered his scientists to kick the development of ICBMs into high gear. He wanted to close the missile gap and be ahead of the Americans by 1962 (just five years away). He wanted to scare NATO into taking him seriously by building a massive stockpile of nuclear ICBMs capable of reaching targets in Western Europe and Western North America (via Siberia).

If Jackson wins, you can pretty much expect an arms race. He was so pro-military that when the doves took control of the Democratic Party in the 1970s, they steered clear of old Scoop. That's why he didn't get the nomination in 1972 and 1976.

Interesting thought about pro-Soviet Haiti.

As for South America, there really isn't anything there worth mentioning. Well...there is one thing that happens in South America in 1960 that I am going to mention soon.
 
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Mr. Santiago

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As for South America, there really isn't anything there worth mentioning. Well...there is one thing that happens in South America in 1960 that I am going to mention soon.

1960 South America?
Lemme guess, there's the Chilean Earthquake, Brasilia..... And Maradona's born on October 30th :p
 

H.Appleby

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...Western North America...

Whereas the U.S. can hit all of the CCCP with their rockets. The Soviets need a way to threaten the Eastern Seaboard and Duvalier seems like just the sort of insane man the communists would give nukes to.
 

Nathan Madien

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Mr. Santiago: Bingo. I am going to mention the Great Chilean Earthquake. After all, this thing was so huge and powerful and widespread. It also seems appropriate to mention an actual earthquake while an political earthquake is going on.

H.Appleby: Reminds me of a line in "Thirteen Days":

"Let's assume for a moment that Khrushchev hasn't gone off the deep end."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Rival Candidate Harry Enters!!
Butler’s first major action as Prime Minister was to lift the state of emergency in Kenya, officially marking the end of the Mau Mau Uprising. Throughout Eden’s tenure, military conflict had raged in this East African British colony between the British Army stationed there and a local anti-colonial group called the Mau Mau. Exercising military power, the British were able to gradually quell the uprising and restore order. In lifting the state of emergency, Butler announced that his country would stay in Kenya for the foreseeable future to “maintain law and order” in light of the rebellion. In 1962, the colony would be granted internal self-governance with political moderate Jomo Kenyatta serving as Prime Minister. However, the Head of State would continue to be the British Governor-General and Kenyan independence would be held off until the mid-1960s as part of a larger effort by Butler and his Foreign Minister to moderate the pace of British decolonization.
large-1-1.jpg

At the same time Butler was keeping his country involved in Kenya, the United States began gearing up for her forty-fourth Presidential election. With Sparkman unable to run again due to term limits, voters would be heading to the polls on November 8th to pick his successor. The Republicans were certain to nominate California Governor William F. Knowland as their candidate; however, there were rumors circulating that New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller was considering challenging Knowland for the nomination. On the Democratic side, Vice President Henry M. Jackson was the heavy favorite for his Party’s nomination. On January 4th, he officially launched his campaign with a speech announcing his candidacy. Scoop gave his speech in his hometown of Everett, Washington - today a plaque marks the site where he spoke - before an audience of two hundred supporters. Awkward when dealing with large crowds, having a small crowd allowed the Vice President to be at his best. Reporters and cameramen were on hand to record the speech for national broadcast on the evening news programs. Wanting to demonstrate that he had the knowledge and experience to be the Chief Executive, Jackson spoke for twenty-five minutes about the issues he would run on and what he would do if elected to serve in the White House for the next four years. On the domestic front, the staunch social liberal evoked former President Franklin D. Roosevelt in advocating a new New Deal for the 1960s. “It is my intention,” he said, “To use the full power of government to ensure a fair and just deal for the American people.”
Hence, the social program became known as the Fair Deal. Among the key (and vague) points Jackson highlighted:
-Increase aid for the blind, the disabled, and the elderly
-Improve the healthcare system
-Establish a cabinet-level agency to oversee housing and urban development
-Address the needs of children, veterans, and Native Americans
-To help offset the cost of his social proposals, Jackson would continue the steamlining of the Federal Government begun by former President Adlai Stevenson. He would eliminate duplicate or wasteful programs, reorganize government departments and agencies, and make cuts in the Federal payroll by dismissing employees deemed “unnecessary”. He also admitted that he would raise taxes on the grounds that the benefits the Fair Deal would dole out would be worth paying higher taxes
-Upgrade the United States Postal Service to make it more efficent at handling mail in the 1960s
-Improve the election process, including granting residents of the District of Columbia the right to vote
-Enact a constitutional amendment providing equal rights for women
-Guarantee civil rights for African-Americans
It was an ambitious program, designed to build on “these last seven years of progress, in which every American has seen the betterment of their lives in some way.”
Indeed, the Vice President portrayed his candidacy as the continuation of the progressive mindset begun by Stevenson and continued by Sparkman. Spending the bulk of his speech laying out domestic policy, Scoop touched briefly on foreign policy. Pledging the continuation of an aggressive containment policy against the growth of Communism, Jackson once again denounced the idea of reaching an accomodation with the Kremlin:
“It is true that the Soviet Union do not want all-out atomic war. The Kremlin rulers would rather inherit the world than obliterate it. That is why the West must use every method short of war to stop them. Those who wish to appease the Soviet dictator to achieve a new ‘peace for our time’ have not learned the lessons of appeasing Adolf Hitler.”
As a way to combat Soviet ambitions, the Vice President recommended that the United States continue to provide foreign aid to newly-emerging countries. He made the argument that helping countries develop their economies was the way to beat back the appeal of Communism. He pointed to Egypt as an example of what can happen when America is generous. He noted that the Egyptians, with American financial backing, were currently building the Aswan High Dam in order to control the flood waters of the Nile River, improve irrigation, and generate hydroelectric power. Such a move “will help the Egyptians help themselves by opening up a path to long-term growth and stability. Countries that are stable are less likely to consider radical alternatives.”
dmitri-kessel-construction-of-aswan-high-dam.jpg

Having thrown his hat into the ring, Jackson began a tour across the country to talk to voters and raise campaign funds as he made his way back to the East Coast. From Everett, he traveled south to Los Angeles, California. It would be here in six months that the Democrats would meet to hold their nominating convention. With thirty-two electoral votes up for grabs, California was certain to be a battleground state come fall for the two major political parties. Speaking to voters in the home of Hollywood and the new star-studded Walk of Fame, Jackson laid out one of the themes he would be campaigning on: that he had the proven ability to stand up to the Soviet Union and not blink. During his hardline speech, he advocated aggressive support for South Vietnam in her defense against Communism – by contrast, Sparkman was lukewarm in his support for Saigon. “It is absolutely essential,” he said, “That we are aware of the overwhelming importance of Indochina in the fight to stop Communist domination of the Far East and the world.”
It was in the Los Angeles speech that the Vice President began to crystallize his foreign policy views into an overarching grand strategy for the United States – one that he would implement if elected. As he told the gathered Angelenos:
“The fundamental issue of our time is whether a free society can generate and sustain the great national endeavor required to outperform Soviet tyranny. The outcome of the Cold War will determine what kind of world system is to be created on this planet: a Communist world system or a world system in which free institutions can survive and flourish. The Communists aim to demonstrate that their system represents the inevitable wave of the future, and that our friends and allies have no realistic alternative except to join forces with them. Loss of the Cold War would be as final – and fatal – as defeat in an all-out war.”
Having said all that, Scoop assured his listeners that he was confident the United States would ultimately win the Cold War. He predicted:
“The Soviet Union’s race to catch up with us contains the seeds of their political failure. The essence of the Soviet dilemma is that the Kremlin must grant some freedom in order to maintain technological growth. However, allowing freedom undermines Communist ideology and discipline. Rule by more and more repression can work only at the expense of weakening Soviet standing in the industrial competition with the West. In a system where there have been few freedoms, the introduction of new freedoms is perilous.”
However in order to win, the American people would have to “persevere in the struggle for years and years” in both confronting and talking to Moscow. While advocating communication with the Soviets, he warned against treating summits as a cure-all:
“We should never forget that summitry is just another device in the Cold War arsenal. The Soviet rulers think in terms of power. Superior power, they believe, will eventually prevail.”
Following the speech, the Vice President posed with his campaign manager (left) and the state party chairman (right), all flashing victory signs for the amusement of photographers. He then mingled with supporters.
jacksonCISOPTR89DMSCALE10000000DMWIDTH802DMHEIGHT630-1.jpg

Among those he talked to was a good-looking man named Ronald Reagan. Originally born in Illinois in February 1911, Reagan moved to California in 1937 to pursue an acting career. Among the movies he starred in were “Knute Rockne, All American” (1940), “Kings Row” (1942), and “Bedtime for Bonzo” (1951). After World War Two, he served as President of the Screen Actors Guild and exercised his anti-Communist chops by being an informant for the FBI amid postwar paranoia about Communist inflitration in America. In 1954, Reagan got his current job of hosting “General Electric Theater”, an anthology television series on CBS. A lifelong Democrat, Reagan started out as a liberal New Dealer who campaigned for Hubert Humphrey when he ran for President as a third party candidate in 1948. However as he grew older, Reagan’s political views became more conservative. Although he wasn’t keen on the Fair Deal proposals, the actor loved Jackson’s pro-military and anti-Communist positions. After listening to the Los Angeles speech, Reagan and his wife Nancy approached the Vice President and chatted with him. Jackson thanked him for the post-Kitchen Debate congratulatory letter; in response, Reagan thanked him for standing up to Khrushchev the way he did. “We’re at war with the most dangerous enemy that has ever faced mankind in his long climb from the swamp to the stars,” he said, “And you not only recognize that but have the courage to speak up and warn others.”
Reagan urged the Vice President to continue speaking out “about the millions of people enslaved in the Soviet colonies in the satellite nations.”
Scoop was visibly impressed by Reagan’s passionate opposition to Communism and saw in him a kindled spirit. He spent more time talking to him than to anyone else. As they departed, Henry decided to keep in touch with Ronald. Perhaps the actor could be of some use in the upcoming campaign.
MV5BMTA4NDA4NDk3MjVeQTJeQWpwZ15BbWU2MDA0MjE0Ng_V1_SX333_SY450_.jpg

Having made a fan out of Reagan, Jackson swung his tour eastward. He made stops in important states like Missouri (thirteen electoral votes) and Michigan (twenty electoral votes)…states he couldn’t afford to lose in what would certainly be a close election. On January 10th, the Vice President arrived in Grand Rapids, Michigan – home of the Arthur H. Vandenberg Presidential Center – to meet with voters there. The Great Lakes State, aside from its’ considerable amount of electoral votes, would be in play in November due to the fact that both the Governorship and a Senate seat would be up for grabs. On that same cold day 572 miles southeast, standing on the steps of the Virginia State Capitol Building in Richmond, Virginia Senator Harry F. Byrd announced that he would be a Democratic candidate for President of the United States. The announcement itself wasn’t all that surprising, considering the bad blood between Northern and Southern Democrats. With the Vice President firmly in the Humphrey wing of the Party, it was considered a safe bet that a Southern candidate would emerge to represent the Old Guard. What was surprising was the fact that Byrd was going to seek the regular nomination, not be the Dixiecrat candidate instead. Byrd’s rationale was that if he didn’t run in the primaries as a challenger, Jackson would win by default and the Southerners wouldn’t have someone to rally around in defiance.
1101620817_400-1.jpg

And who is Harry Byrd you might be asking? At age seventy-two, Byrd was an old man from an old Virginia family. His family lineage included the founder of Richmond, Pocahontas, and Richard E. Byrd (the first man to fly over the South Pole). Allergic to debt and borrowing money, Byrd began his political career in 1915 and eventually became Governor (1926-1930) and a Senator in 1933. Although an opponent of the New Deal and liberal programs in general, Byrd was an internationalist and was never afraid to give nonpartisan support to foreign policy regardless of whichever political party controlled the White House. In 1944, he sought the Democratic Presidential nomination and lost to former Secretary of Agriculture Henry A. Wallace in a bitter convention battle that took thirteen ballots to settle. Sixteen years later, greatly disturbed by the prospect of a Jackson nomination, Byrd decided to mount a second Presidential campaign. He certainly had the segregationist credentials to represent Southern resistance. Byrd was one of the leading Senators in the successful campaign to filibuster Republican attempts at enacting meaningful civil rights legislation during the 1940s. When the Supreme Court struck down segregated schools as unconstitutional in 1954, it was Byrd who urged Sparkman to resist enforcing the ruling – advice that ended up doing the President more harm than good. The Virginia Senator then signed the Southern Manifesto opposing racial integration. In the wake of the Little Rock Crisis in 1957, he called for “massive resistance” on the state level to prevent what happened in Little Rock from happening elsewhere. To quote one historian:
“You could not have scripted a better candidate to represent the Southern Old Guard in 1960 than Senator Byrd.”
byrd01.jpg

Following Byrd’s announcement, the Strom Thurmond-led Dixiecrats coalition endorsed him for President. With that, all hell broke loose. After years of growing angst, the Democratic Party finally ruptured into all-out civil war. For the next three weeks, the American people watched as the Humphrey Democrats and the Dixiecrats pounded each other in a vicious verbal brawl. Every time one side criticized the other, the attacked came back with stronger words. Both sides claimed to represent the “true” Democratic Party and accused their opponents of being “traitors”. Jackson and Humphrey, Byrd and Thurmond…they all used heated language in explaining why their respective sides were right and not the other. Even Republicans, no strangers to political feuding, were taken aback by how ugly things were getting as January faded into February. Watching events play out from his home in New York, former President Thomas E. Dewey dismissed comparisons between the Dewey-Taft Feud and the Jackson-Byrd Feud as both simplistic and ignorant. According to him, there was a major difference between these two:
“What we Republicans were arguing about was the idealogical direction in which we would go. After beating each other up quite badly, we came to the realization that our party could never exist being either too liberal or too conservative. Instead, in order for us to go forward together, we would have to strike a balance between the two sides.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are not arguing about an ideology direction. What they are struggling to answer is this basic question: ‘Are all men created equal?’ This is a question the Democrats have never been able to answer for as long as they have existed, instead putting it off through compromise and silence. Now they have to answer that question. What will that answer be? I do not know. I do know this however: ‘A house divided against itself cannot stand.’”

splitddonkey.jpg
 
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H.Appleby

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Wooooohooooo!!!!
 

Kurt_Steiner

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We're going to hear more about that Reagan chap, dunno why...
 

Asalto

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Nice update

Reagan + Byrd + Dixiecrats = 3rd Party?

Except Reagan seems to be pretty much in Scoop's camp, so I doubt he'd join up with Byrd.

Great update.
 

trekaddict

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Dear god I hope so. Not only would a 3rd party make American Party politics less confusing (it took me ages to figure out that at least superficially the Dems and GOP had switched sides of the political spectrum) but it would also make elections less boring.
 

Mr. Santiago

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Except Reagan seems to be pretty much in Scoop's camp, so I doubt he'd join up with Byrd.

Great update.

From the update I gather that Scoop's anti-comunism is what's keeping Reagan Democrat; take that away and the whole social agenda would alienate him, IMHO
 

Andreios II

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I agree with Mr Santiago, there isn't much that's attracting Reagan apart from Jackson's international stance. I expect that if things change in the future, like 'detente' for example, then he'll very quickly go over to the 'tougher' GOP if the Democrats try to thaw things with the USSR.

The Republicans must be loving the in-fighting of the Democrats right about now. Even if Rockefeller decides to get involved, it won't disrupt the party on anything like the scale their opponents are dealing with right now. Interesting how Byrd has stayed with the mainstream party, he certainly is sure of himself if he thinks he can swing the whole party over to supporting him. It's not going to be pretty, that's for sure, but I have a feeling that Jackson will triumph.

Just a thought actually, I recall that the Democrats used to have a rule that made it harder to nominate a candidate, like they had to have 2/3's of all the ballot before winning the nomination or something. That caused the enormous mess in 1924 where they balloted long into the night xD Is that still in place now?

I like the bit about Kenya and decolonisation in general. Most historians do argue that the OTL Conservative government from '51 to around '59 exerted the most control over decolonisation that any British government ever did, so it's interesting to see it sorta extended by Butler here. Given the right factors, it certainly could have, although for how long is anyone's guess.
 

hoi2geek

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I like the bit about Kenya and decolonisation in general. Most historians do argue that the OTL Conservative government from '51 to around '59 exerted the most control over decolonisation that any British government ever did, so it's interesting to see it sorta extended by Butler here. Given the right factors, it certainly could have, although for how long is anyone's guess.

Maybe long enough for Biafra to be recognised as an independent state
 

H.Appleby

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Andreios II

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And a better outcome in the Congolese Civil War!

Maybe. From what I've learnt the Belgians essentially announced that they were granting Congo independence then just sprung it on them the year after... hell of a way to decolonise!!! Perhaps they'll follow Butler's example and try to moderate what they're doing if the British initiative works.
 

unmerged(75409)

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Maybe. From what I've learnt the Belgians essentially announced that they were granting Congo independence then just sprung it on them the year after... hell of a way to decolonise!!! Perhaps they'll follow Butler's example and try to moderate what they're doing if the British initiative works.
Belgium? Not bloody likely. They never built the sort of "this is our empire and we'll take care of it" pride that the British had. Leopold acquired the Congo on his own initiative, and the Belgian state was forced to take it over, more or less under international pressure. There was no willingness among Belgians to spend more blood and wealth on the place than the bare necessity. Once Congo starts making problems, they'll dump it like a hot potato and pretend it never was theirs.
 

H.Appleby

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Also, not to totally get off topic again, but how soon will the we see the B-53 get deployed?
 

Kurt_Steiner

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And to that question I add the following one: as I see you have the strategic bomber Mach 2, does that mean that the Convair B-58 Hustler is ripe for service?
 

H.Appleby

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You know, Barry Goldwater will definitely have an important role in the election this year, in fact, I'm hoping for the Goldwater tsunami to come four years earlier TTL. (There's a fascinating book on Goldwater called Before the Storm, have you read it?)