The Polish Struggle for Royal Power won't fire?

[houstn4]

I am playing as Poland in patch 1.22.2.
It is currently year 1612 and the war against Sejm haven't started yet. The event (according to wiki) can fire after 1600 and has MTTH 100 months (8 years 4 months). The modifier "The Nieszawa Privilegies" (I currently have in my game) further reduces MTTH by half. I tried to restart the game but still no progress.
Am I just impatient or is there any mistake in my game?
Thank you for your responses.

 

[pttaylor]

Taking the MTTH as quoted, this has a bit more than 10% chance of having gone so long without firing purely by chance (each MTTH represents 50% probability, so 12 years = 3*MTTH = .5*.5*.5 = .125 chance); maybe just be patient. Note that trying to save-scum won't really help you - it's a very small chance to fire calculated every day, the chance doesn't change with time (unlike eg. the X year pulse events where the date is fixed and which event is chosen gets randomised).