You've got too many clans.Game goes, "I'm lazy, math is hard, I'll just say this condition fails. I mean, there's 50% chance it'll be correct, which should be good enough for humans."
And it's not one of the other clans secretly being bigger but UI not updating, every clan has spit option disabled for this same reason. Worked fine just a moment ago, but goes NOPE now.
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Sometimes a holy order spawns with its first leader as Catholic due to a bug, yeah. Subsequent ones will be the right religion.
You can get all sorts of this stuff when playing on gamey borders.