You can't seriously suggest that Timmies shouldn't lose Persia. Because they obviously should.
Then if they obviously should lose Persia, they obviously should need some help to go in the good direction. The problem is that after Timmies collapse they collapse to the ground. Khorasan, Afghanisthan, Khiva. Every possible rebel spawn and they are cornered to Samarkand. Then there is no way to form a Mughal empire just because they can't core the provinces they need. So the way the Timmies collapse is not helping at all.
So you have two options. Railroading it by an event which I think is the solution. The persian one at least. Persia should be released by an event. Because if not, they go bankrupt. You can't fight 30k x 3 rebel stacks. There is no way to win. Ally with Timmies after Persia breaks apart, and then check a "Call for arms". It should say (because I have seen it a lot of times). "Timurids is 3095 in debt"

Because that is what happen.
And nowadays there is a railroad MTTH event for persia. The persian revolts. Is in the wiki. So no matter if they raise stability to three and hire a theologian. They will collapse. And there is not the only single event. There is another one for Afghan revolts. So we have to discuss what happen after the inevitable collapse. And if they lose also Afghanistan and they usually do, there is no way to form Mughals.
And there is another problem. Every neighbour when Timurids are collapsing declare war on them. So the solution is not easy I agree, but this need a completely rework.
IMO, babur revolts on mughals cores is an MTTH event we need. And that state or nation or whatever you want to call it is the one who should form the Mughal empire because giving the Timmies missions or quests to form it don't make sense. They fall apart!
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The Disintegration of the Timurid Empire
Ulugh Beg had earlier been viceroy of Transoxiana. After his succession to the throne the Timurid Empire fell into anarchy, the Turkmen horde known as the White Sheep conquered much territory, while the Uzbeks looted Samarkand. Petty princes took over the rule, and local dynasties sprang up.
Trigger conditions
- Is Timurids
- Ruler has less than 3 in all skills
- Does not have a regency
- Year is between 1450 and 1500
Mean time to happen
- This event is randomly triggered upon a new ruler
Attack all traitors
- For all provinces that is a core of Mughals and can spawn nationalist rebels:
- Size 6 nationalist rebels led by "Babur Timurid" rise in revolt in a random province
- Size 1 nationalist rebels rise in revolt in remaining provinces
- Size 2 rebels rise in revolt in 3 additional provinces
Bribe all traitors
- Lose
2 years of income
- Gain
5 inflation
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Ismail's Resurrection of Persia
Ismaïl emerged at the age of 14 to take his father's position as head of the Kizilbash (a Shiite Turkmen tribe). He quickly established a base of power in north-western Persia, and in 1501 he took the city of Tabriz and proclaimed himself Shah of Iran. In a succession of swift conquests he crushed the Ak Koyunlu (White Sheep Turks) and resurrected the nation of Iran under his Safavid dynasty.
Trigger conditions
- Is Timurids
- Owns at least 1 province that is a core of Persia
- Persia does not exist
- Year is before 1550
Mean time to happen
Crush the Shiite rebels
- For all provinces that is a core of Persia:
- Add
10 unrest