The Mongol Threat to China

[unmerged(10128)]

i ve decided to delay submitting any other changes until i finish doing this very important part. I find it impossible to submit any other changes unless I do this coz I find that there is nothing in the game that can seriously threaten China's power, and unless i do this, other changes might unbalance the game even more in Chinas favour.

The northern border is historically the most serious threat to China, and it's so obvious unless u didnt know what the Great Wall was built for. And Ming was actually a dynasty where much work done on the Wall. the way to simulate this must be thru events. a nation cannot be created for mongolia.

What i have in mind is this:
*china must own provinces on the border.
*a rough time frame of average 17 years (usually corresponds with emperor's reign) is to be the structure of the events.
*by default, Mongols would appear (as rebels) along Chinese border provinces on average 4 times in each time frame on any random day (use offset). their strength varies and depends on what was happening in Mongolia during that time in real life.
*on a random day early in each time frame, China has the chance to decide what it would do to deal with these annoying hordes. They have 4 choices:
1. diplomacy and appeasement.
2. defensive combat and fortification (ie strengthen the great wall and repel any enemies crossing the border).
3. launch repeated attacks into the mongol homeland to weaken them.
4. Overwhelm the mongols and rule them as part of China.

Historically, #3 was done the most during early Ming, the founding emperor Zhu Yuan Zhang (Hongwu) launched 8 expeditions into mongolia during his reign, another founding emperor Zhu Di (Yongle) launched 5 invasions. #2 was done during the whole period but more during mid-Ming, #1 more during late Ming. #4 was done during Qing dynasty.
All 4 should have different effects in the game. #2 will do nothing to the number of mongol attacks during the next time frame. #1 would eventually be the most useful in reducing mongol attacks (sleep 1 or 2 of the mongol appearance events) for the next time frame but has a higher chance of failure than #3 and only useful in periods where the threat is not that great. #3 is most useful when the Mongols were strong, but is going to be very costly, reducing province tax incomes as well as province manpowers to prepare and sustain such repeated large scale invasions until it can be successful, and only reduces the strength of Mongols temporarily (for the next time frame). #4 is the MOST costly and has the lowest success rate, but once successful, any future mongol invasions will not occur, but the cost will continue long into the future and it's not guaranteed that u can supress them forever.

Note that the success rate for #2 #3 and #4 is controlled by combining offset and sleepevent.

As a result of these events, the inward/outward strategy event will be deleted, it just has no place in the game anymore, let alone in real life. The old great wall events, emperor is captured event, as well as the move of the capital event will be integrated into these events.

As u will realise 4 mongol appearances plus 4 options plus stuff flowing from each option in every 17 years means a HUGE number of events has to be used (well over a hundred). This is no small thing though, it will probably be one of the focus for everyone playing China. Since this is a big change i will need comments from everyone until I proceed with really scripting it etc.

 

[unmerged(8451)]

Well, I am no expert on China during this period. But I can say that I do like this idea. It would be nice if revolts in China made more sense, instead of the +40% revolt risk events that are in the EEP. I mean, for things to get that bad should depend on the player making bad decisions leading up to that, which is not necessarily the case. This would fit in well with the AGC event philosophy.

 

[Caius Marius]

I also like these ideas, and think that the fact that the mongolian threat is not represented is (to date) a major oversight.

I am worried about how the AI will deal with the revolts, since it often seems completely inept vs. rebels. This is not such a problem in the provinces that border only other chinese provinces and PTI, but it doesn't make sense for an incompetent AI to lose provinces to the Chagtai Khanate or Korea through defections of "Mongol" barbarians.

By all means go for it, though, and I am sure after some testing we will be able to solve the problems.

 

[Peter Ebbesen]

Interesting idea.

I must say that 3, costing both provincemanpower and provincetax permanently sounds unlikely to ever be chosen by a human player. Is the cost of a sustained effort this decade really likely to influence the manpower potential of a province a generation or two later? - not to mention a century down the road? How about subtracting some population instead?

 

[unmerged(10128)]

no, not permanently, just temporarily, until the outcome of the expeditions event pops out (either success/failure), which will restore the lost province income and manpower back. reducing population really is not much of a penalty in the game at all. i think province income and manpower must be reduced to reflect the contiuous expense and loss of manpower to sustain these attacks, which cannot be seen physically on the map. plus if it turns out successful, it should reduce the risk of mongol invasions during the next time frame a lot.

i will make some preliminary ones and test it for the AI.

i dont think this will make it for the beta 2, so i m changing my mind again, i actually will submit some other changes for beta 2.

 

[unmerged(6881)]

I think that list of the affected provs and suggestions for drop in manpower and provincetax would be nice. I think that China is so big that she can even lose some border provs without serious harm. What about losses in treasury instead? It can force China to make loans, give serious inlation od even go bankrupt. It would resolve problem of too fast advancing in land tech too.

 

[unmerged(8570)]

Good ideas, but perhaps there could be a mongol nation with no fortresses?

 

[Peter Ebbesen]

Originally posted by Sun_Zi_36
no, not permanently, just temporarily, until the outcome of the expeditions event pops out (either success/failure), which will restore the lost province income and manpower back. reducing population really is not much of a penalty in the game at all. i think province income and manpower must be reduced to reflect the contiuous expense and loss of manpower to sustain these attacks, which cannot be seen physically on the map. plus if it turns out successful, it should reduce the risk of mongol invasions during the next time frame a lot.

Ah, I see. Thanks for the clarification.

i will make some preliminary ones and test it for the AI.

i dont think this will make it for the beta 2, so i m changing my mind again, i actually will submit some other changes for beta 2.

I'll happily see what makes it into beta 2. I was planning to write an AGC China AAR as my next AAR project, and hoping to see some of your interesting events in action. (The treaty of Nerchiinsk comes to mind)

 

[unmerged(10128)]

Yes, treasury and total manpower will be reduced, plus temporary province manpower plus temporary province income. These will be a lot of work so i wont make it to beta 2, i will submit some border, culture, religion, and population changes first, then i will begin thinking about the details in this event. I have considered creating a mongol nation a long time ago. but the problem is, theres no place to place the mongol nation. even if we did, china is too strong that a new nation with 1 or 2 provinces will never be strong enough to pose a threat. events must be the way to go.

 

[unmerged(7090)]

Originally posted by Sun_Zi_36
but the problem is, theres no place to place the mongol nation.

True, but maybe you could stick it in the closest possible place to its historical location (it's not that far into PTI, is it?). That would be kind of useful, as those provinces could represent the outer provinces of the nation, with the inner provinces being located in PTI (and therefore unassailable by China).

Originally posted by Sun_Zi_36

even if we did, china is too strong that a new nation with 1 or 2 provinces will never be strong enough to pose a threat. events must be the way to go.

That shouldn't be a problem, by using revolt risk you can make the 'border province' nation constantly re-appear. You can also use events to give the nation huge armies in times of trouble.

 

[unmerged(8570)]

True, but maybe you could stick it in the closest possible place to its historical location (it's not that far into PTI, is it?). That would be kind of useful, as those provinces could represent the outer provinces of the nation, with the inner provinces being located in PTI (and therefore unassailable by China).

China did finally conquer them in 1567 IIRC, but there are some mongol-named provinces (Touva and Buriat are examples), the only problem is that they're past the PTI and thus unrealistically inaccessible.

That shouldn't be a problem, by using revolt risk you can make the 'border province' nation constantly re-appear. You can also use events to give the nation huge armies in times of trouble.

This is, IMHO, a good idea--have Sun's idea in place for the RR, but a mongol revolter in the area for mongophiles ready to conquer and roman emperors tired of the bland european scene (preferably with few fortresses in the area, and just a cavalry horde to defend them). Altan Khan did estabilsh his capital at "Kara-Khoto" (sp? trans-"Blue City") just beyond the wall. Even so, as Sun says it remains a bit unrealistic. So realism or fun, then.

 

[unmerged(739)]

IIRC wasn't the Hohhot area primarily Mongol?

 

[unmerged(9384)]

I like the Idea, but how shall the Changtie Kahnate be involved as a nearby mongol nation we cannot forget them

 

[unmerged(8570)]

IIRC the Chagatai have only lost land from the reign of Khaidu onward :\

 

[unmerged(10128)]

yes, the mongol capital is realistically deep into the PTI, about 2/3 of the way up, the only province that is realistically mongol is Hohhot, as Gen. Wolfe said. in fact after the culture changes i made that is the only province with mongol culture. but 1 province is definitely useless and would get annexed. if we use revolt risk that would not strain the AI much coz they'll just leave it to declare independence. So i think using rebel armies could probably do the same trick, instead of using up another nation tag. Of course in the events i m proposing if China decides to raid into Mongolia that would increase the revolt risk along the border.

The Chagatai Khanate wasnt really as mongol as it was. it had already broken up into two chunks mid 14th C. the eastern chunk is the one in the game, but even it is not really united most of the time. in fact the Uighur-Mogol kingdoms had very good relations with China. The Oyrats, a real mongol tribe in western mongolia, conquered the area in 17th C. i think the Oyrats could become a nation, i posed big threats against china during most of Ming dynasty. but it cant appear until 17th C coz it's not on the map.

 

[St. Leo]

<i>it's so obvious unless u didnt know what the Great Wall was built for.</i>

To prevent the peasants from escaping?

 

[Peter Ebbesen]

Originally posted by St. Leo
<i>it's so obvious unless u didnt know what the Great Wall was built for.</i>

To prevent the peasants from escaping?

No. According to ancient Chinese wisdom barbarian invaders, having ridden hundreds of miles with their horde, will, upon seeing a long and sparsely manned wall, decide to ride home and play dominos rather than consider the inherent possibilities of ramp or ladder construction.

Think of it rather as a mental wall: on this side, the empire, on the other side: barbarians. If you get enough people to believe this, you've got the basis for a nice and stable society, since ideas from outside are inherently worthless coming as they do from barbarians.

 

[Garbon]

Originally posted by Sun_Zi_36
but 1 province is definitely useless and would get annexed. if we use revolt risk that would not strain the AI much coz they'll just leave it to declare independence. So i think using rebel armies could probably do the same trick, instead of using up another nation tag. Of course in the events i m proposing if China decides to raid into Mongolia that would increase the revolt risk along the border.

Wouldn't it be though, that if there was that one province mongol nation, China would have to fear its provinces revolting away. Thus the mongol state would expand into China if China didn't stop the mongol advance. So the province could get independence, but other Chinese provinces might join it.

 

[unmerged(10128)]

that might be true, but once it declares independence, it could be smashed pretty easily. it's the revolts before the independence that might be ignored. and if a human is playing China, it wouldnt take much intelligence to figure out the best way to tackle the problem is just to have armies standing in that one province (hohhot) all the time. realistically speaking, the possibility that chinese provinces would voluntarily join the barbarian mongols is pretty slim. however, we could probably make a revolter in Hohhot province under the tag for the Oyrat Mongols (to be added) which conquered the Uighurs and Tibet around 1600. but i wouldnt be very optimistic of the degree of threat the one province revolter would pose against China. events to simulate stuff happening outside the map is probably much more useful.

 

[unmerged(6881)]

I'd prefer event option.

One-province Mongols will be crashed everytime. Of course there can be many events placed to China.event file to produce insane revoltrisk here and allow to reborn Mongols but exclusively for human players events with option_a only must be created to force that renewal. Any human will send huge army to Hohhot and let it bleed. Or leave that province - it is not huge loss I think, not to own one rather poor province.

So better simulate it through events. Unless checked earlier they should be great surprise for player especially that the best option (b or c) will be just lesser evil .