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    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

Iwo Jima

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version: HOI2DD ARM 1.3beta with last AI patch.
scenario: The Road to War (1936)
country: Republican Spain
options: Normal difficulty, Aggressive AI,
Full IC Take Over Off, Tech-Team Take Over Off


LOFTY POLITICS
The Second Spanish Republic AAR




Flag of Second Spanish Republic



Coat of Arms
Motto:"Plus Ultra" ("Further Beyond", latin)


¡Salud, amigos!


Welcome to my third AAR.
This one is about Spanish Politics.


Why SPR'36? Flexibility!

Spain'36 is standing on the crossroads.
Domestic Policy, Military Policy, Foreign Policy, Research Policy

Too many choices!

I want try to make my own. With some analysis, as I like ))

Also, I'm still loving this orange color:


Spain with the rest of colonies in 1936

What is Special in this AAR? Political accent!


I'll try to describe accurately all political and strategical decisions.
And also avoid too many battle details.
Maybe, I'll even try not calculate too much ))


Let's move! Further beyond!
->
 
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unmerged(157789)

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unmerged(50292)

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A burst of new Spainish AAR! THis is the 2nd one in two days. The Spainiards are coming!!
 

unmerged(65186)

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Spain! I'm always up for reading some Spanish AARs, I think it's one of the most fun countries in the whole game to play. I'll be following!
 

Iwo Jima

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Overveiw

SPANISH OPENING

Main Problem - Dissent 30%

Before all discussion about future plans Spain needs to solve dissent problem. My solution is radical ("Extraordinary conditions need extraordinary decisions"):


All capacities to Consumer Goods!


With such speed we'll neglect dissent in a six months.

Current Advantage- Lot of Money!
About 200$ in a month! For foreign policy and intelligence.


Current Disadvantage - Lack of Supply!
Our reserve of supplies is not great, so we need to decrease supply consumption and maybe trade some resources for supplies. The good idea is trade some old units for supplies.

Also we freeze all production for half of year. This is the choice!

->
 
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unmerged(166917)

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Wow subscribed. Pretty excited by the concept!
 

Kurt_Steiner

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You should try the mod34 with the October revolution... :p
 

Iwo Jima

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Political Overview

DOMESTIC POLICY OVERVIEW


Sliders

Democratic - Authoritarian
DowDissent +8.9%
BelToAttack yes
Partisans -4%
GoodsDemand +16%

Political Left - Political Right
We are Democracy with radical Social-Conservative policy
2 steps from Market Liberal and from Paternal Autocracy
Open Society - Closed Society
Dissent Growth +4%
Dissent in Nat Provinces +10%
Dissent in Occ Provinces -10%
Counter Intelligence -10%
TechCost +8%

Free Market - Central Planning
Goods to Money -20%
Goods Demand -8%
Tech Cost -10%
Upgrade Time & Cost +10%
ProdCost N/A
ICBonus N/A (1 step from +15%IC)

Standing Army - Drafted Army
Manpower XP N/A
Gearing +6%
OrgBonus -6%
Upgrade Time & Cost +40%

Hawk Lobby - Dove Lobby
Goods to Money +20%
Production Cost N/A
Dissent Growth +4%
Manpower Growth -4%

Interventionism - Isolationism
Diplomacy Cost +10%
Bad Relations Bonus +20%
DoW Dissent +5.6%
Goods Demand +60%
BelToAttack 49
Join Alliance no (one step to "yes")


IC Bonus or Join Alliance? Alliance!
Obviously, there are two strong decisionы for sliders - move toward Central Planning gives +15%IC and move toward interventionism gives ability joining alliances. But +15%IC have no sense in next 6 months, because it wouldn't help us with dissent. On the other side, being in alliance opens wide spread of possibilities - tech trade, resource help, etc.
Move toward Interventionism!

->
 
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Iwo Jima

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Remark:

I assume that people, who read this AAR know all basics of game system. If not, feel free to ask, if some my decision will be hard to understand. In previous AARs I've calculated a lot and described the game system, but it took a lot of time.

Also, welcome with any questions, suggestions or even discussions )
 

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So Alliance, with the Franco-British Entente?
 

Iwo Jima

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political overview-2

DOMESTIC POLICY OVERVIEW-2



Heads

Head of State

Really useless in peace-time. Even hampering.

Head of Government

Not bad! -10%CGN is really good, specially in peace-time.


Unfortunately, we can't change this heads easy. But the good news - Elections will become in June'36. Let's see!



Changing Ministers - Is the game is worth the candle? Not always!
Changing your ministers rise your dissent by 1%(or even 2%).
With current rate it will take 6(12) days to recover. And it will waste about 200(400) ICdays

It is also well-known, that it's better to make changes not all at the same time. Changing, lower dissent, another changing, lower dissent -- this method will save you some ICdays.

So, we should be very careful with cabinet reshuffling.

Foreign Minister


Urzaiz Cadaval is obviously useless!
Osorio y Gallardo will save money in negotiations with Commies and Nazies (Open negotiations, Join Alliance and Guarantee Independence is the most useful), but will not help with Democracies.
Martinez de Velasco will save many in Influence Nation(useful) and Demanding Territory(do you remember Gibraltar? But it's not very probable to return it soon)

Is it worth to change? Yes! Who? Martinez de Velasco! When? Feb-Mar'36!
2% dissent = lost 400 ICd = 1600 supp = about 300-500$

My estimation of numbers of diplomatic actions (until Elections in June):
Open Negotiations 3-4 times
Join Alliance not more than 3-4 times (hope)
Influence Nation minimum 15-20 times. (We have not very good relations with other countries, e.g. Germany -49, USSR -11, UK -9. We need about +150 for good probability Joining Alliance)
Guarantee Independence 0 times. I doubt it could be useful so soon.
Demand Territory 0 times. I doubt it could be useful so soon.​
Osorio y Gallardo usefulness:
ON*4(not with democracies) Current cost = 33$. New cost = 9$. Profit = 24$. Net profit = about 100$
JA*4(not with democracies) Current cost = 33$ New cost = 17$. Profit = 16$. Net profit 64$(hope).
IN*15+(any country) Current cost = 143$ New cost = 110$. Profit = 33$. Net profit >500$(hope).
Total Osorio y Gallardo profit >600$ (assuming expenses >1754$)

Martinez de Velasco usefulness:
IN(any country) Current cost = 143$ New cost = 73$. Profit = 70$. Net profit >1000$(hope).
Total Martinez de Velasco profit >1000$ (assuming expenses >1100$)

Сheck our financial possibilities. We'll have constant income about +200 in a month. So it's about 1000$ before Elections. As we see, Osorio could easily run out our budget.

So, obviously Martinez beats his opponents.

When we should reshuffle?
Martinez could be used 4 times in a month. So, we need about 300$ in a month, and about 1200$ for rising realtions with one alliance leader. Our income is 200$, so we need 6 month to get this sum. So, we could get Martinez after 2 month. Maybe after 1 month, considering only 5 month before Elections.


Armaments Minister



Mendizabal y Bonilla is good enough.
Yanguas Messfa is very good
Calvo-Sotelo is very good also

Is it worth to change? Not now and soon!

Calvo effect is lowering CGN by 1,76. It will increase dissent lowering rate by 0.01 (from -0.17 to -0.18). Note: Calvo will not affect money production, while Yanguas do.

30/0.17=176 days (Mendizabal)
32/0.18=177 days

Effect is quite equal. But current minister gives also research bonus.

Yanguas effect will not increase dissent lowering, but will increase money
2% = 400 ICdays lost
money profit will be about 150$ or about 100ICdays.

So, not very profitable.


Security Minister



Martinez de Velasco obviously better than Portela Valladares.
But the reason to keep current is the same, as in previous post. if -10% CGN is not profitable, then -5%(additional) is not profitable too.

Note, we still assuming radical dissent-lowering strategy and consider all profits from this point of view.

Is it worth to change? Not now and soon!

Head of Intelligence


Note: there is another Logistic Specialist in the list. Hidden.

Is it worth to change? Not now and soon!

Obviously we do not need Army Int.
Also, Samper Ibanez is not useful, because we will influence not small coutries, but giants.
IC bonus is not good enough too.
OTOH, research bonus is very useful.

Chief of Staff



Is it worth to change? No!
obviously.

Chief of Army


Note: there are another three candidates hidden, but it's not important.

Is it worth to change? No!
Obviously, the question is about Guns-and-Butter doctrine. -15% supply.

1% dissent = 200 ICd lost. = 800 supply lost

Let X be total amount of supply used by our army in the whole period. Then, X*0.15 is amount of saved supply by Azana Diaz.
If X*0.15>800, then Azana Diaz is profitable. So X should be >5300 (nearly)

Our period of recovering is about half-year, so daily supply consumption should be >30(nearly).

Let's check our army. Our troops need only 18.7 supplies daily. (Note, this number will be even lower with Logistic Wizards)

So, Azana Diaz is not profitable.

Unexpected, isn't it? )


Chief of Navy and Chief of Air Force



Is it worth to change? No!
Obviously, not interesting for us, until we build units or fight.


Cabinet Reshuffle. Conclusion.

Since dissent, raised after any changing, have significant cost, most of changing are not profitable or even useless within the borders of our strategy for the next half-year.
As a rule of thumb, you can assume, that changing is worth to do it only for long-periods and for significant effects.

Examples, when you should NOT change your ministers:

Biased Intellectual if you are not going make a lot of dip actions
Administrative Genius until you build a lot
Gun-and-Butter proponent until you forces are huge
Any attacker/defender until you are fighting​

As for me, this results is very unexpected, 'cause usually I like to change ministers in the most beginning for candidates that I like. As shown above, this tactics could be unprofitable.
 
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Iwo Jima

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Zhuge Liang

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Interesting AAR, I'll be following this. I like the attention to detail and the thought you put into every decision.
 

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Very interesting and sound analysis, as always!
 

Iwo Jima

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TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH STARTING


Spain has a lot of good research team and many fields of study to explore. My choice has the following reasons:

Global Research depends on Global Strategy.
Global Strategy depends on Global and Domestic Political Situation.
Global and Domestic Political Situation is unstable and unclear yet.
So, we need universal decisions. Smth that could be in use anyway.
Also, not bad to use bonus of our minister (+10% inf research)


So, assuming this reasons we exclude at once all doctrines, also all fleet, air and spec inf tech. And the choice is infantry, industry, artillery.

We have a lot of inf'18, so inf'36 is good upgrade.
We have only one cavalry, so we will not research this brunch until we gain BPs.
Artillery is good choice, but we could wait.
Research machines is a must! +5% is a lot with 3 slots.
Machine Tools (+5% IC) could wait until we decrease dissent.
So, RASD is very good choice for 3rd slot. It gives new eng brigade, some modifiers and strategic redeployment.

All techs are researched without penalties and will be completed in a half-year.
 

Iwo Jima

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FORCE CONCENTRATING




Dislocation of Spanish Forces on January, 17.

I like to concentrate units in one province in the beginning.
It is useful, 'cause you can regroup them ad you like, change brigades, etc.
Valencia is a "centre of mass" for army units and good province with a port and airfield.

Also, we do not care about supplying our colonies now.

As you can see, army units are under command of two Logistical Wizards.
 

Iwo Jima

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THE FIRST TRADE


The problem is lack of supplies.
Also, we need money for intelligence upgrade.

As I suppose, and maybe wrote later, main trade partner and future ally is UK. So, trade with UK not only profitable, but also will rise our relations.


Change resources for supplies

Also we sell old scrap metal to USA. Let them supply it )


Sell 5 old ships for money.
We had spend them to intelligence upgrade.

And we decided to make stronger our east borders, selling quite good ships to France. In exchange of supplies store for half-year.


Sell 3 good ships for supplies and money.

So, we have very small fleet now. BB-I "Espana", CL-II "Libertad", 2*DD-II and 5*TP. (Names for ships are no coincidence;))
 
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Nice deals, it seems that the Americans and the French are short of old ships. :D