The Historic Inevitabilty of Epic Failure

[unmerged(58610)]

Milan will not bother with Crete and Cyprus. It may be possible to form alliances with them, expending diplomats and gold. Then hope both honour a DOW on Milan and that Milan annexes both. Same with Rhodes. Seems like too much hope required.

I was assuming Bohemia was going to immediately diploannex TO. I was not expecting the Bohemia -Milan war to go on. Burgundy getting Quest ought not be a problem. Just take Gelre and Osel off them. Ask Hansa for military access and liberate their coastal province before Hansa cede it. Milan looks like it will take a lot of Scandinavia in the ensuing peace. Getting as much as you can in Northern Italy off Milan looks like a plan.

 

[Aminti]

Let's see... Burgundy needs neutering on a rather short term scale... Destroying their fleet and taking the two provinces ought to be enough - even if they take Bremen off the Hansa, it's not cored and they wouldn't be able to make ships. You could also do with a war to completely wreck Milan's fleet - money the AI spends rebuilding the fleet is money not going into buildings, which could help with the Warscore cost issue. Plus there's always an offchance of them grabbing something odd like Press Gangs on their next NI - it's not Quest. As far as I am aware, none of those republics have Quest as one of their historical ideas, but Genoa and Hansa have joined that game for me before... Genoa is easily fixed if they only have one province, but I think the Hansa could do with some taking down - it might entice Milan to do the same and eliminate them altogether. If you take Osnabruck, Hannover and Brunswick, you also have nice borders for a set of Boundary Disputes - Brunswick is the main province in that plan, so the other two are givens.

How's the building spam working out for your economy, by the way?

 

[unmerged(471650)]

I think the biggest problem will be sealing the coast of europe.
I wouldn't be surprised if milan does take Quest.

 

[Barsoom]

Less English action? Unlikely
Not sure about beer instead of tea, whatever next! Definitely time to see what happens in Germany.

Well, it helped clear my head, didn't it? Got me through two academic degrees, too. Next would be jenever, that's the Dutch drink Brits could neither spell nor make (turning it into gin, which is only good when mixed with tonic) - sorry, turning into a rant; tea does seem to work fine for you.

I wasn't supposing you'd sit still, just that you'd show us the chaos in some detail. I'm happy to see Germany all diagonal stripes and some of them not even in your colors.

Your goals for the next 100 years look fine to me. Seems to me you can let the Germans take care of themselves for a bit. As long as they don't go Questing, of course. Cutting Burgundy off from the sea is necessary (and legal and right, to quote another upstanding British leader). IMO you'd do well to also cut the Hansa off from the sea, to prevent Burgundy winning another outlet, to prevent another possible colonizer, and to take out a republic.

Sealing the entire European coast doesn't look feasible. You can and should take on Questers with short coastlines, but if Milan takes it, that's no remedy. Your best bet against colonization would be rapid colonization of the American coast, starting with the US/Canada area. Next victim: Shawnee, Creek or Cherokee, whoever owns the US coast. I'm sure you're on it anyway.

I agree with GaiusC that you should bite the bullet on Crete. It doesn't seem likely that others will take over the islands and if they're republican, they need to go before R/RC. If monarchical, it's better to take them with R/RC as they'll be BB-cheaper and warscore doesn't play a role. Same for the non-Europeans, just take your cores and otherwise ignore them, they're no threat, they won't become expensive in terms of warscore, and they're very unlikely to turn republican on you. I think you can wait and see if you get a border dispute on Avignon too, no hurry there at all. Your second goal, while important, is probably least time-sensitive.

I think you have enough time: 100 years at 3 BB burn/year = 300 BB. The pagans require only 32.2 BB (5 Aztec, 3 Congo, 6 Mutapa, 9 Iroquis/Huron, 18 Creek/Shawnee/Cherokee = 41 provinces x 0.8), that leaves 270. Everything outside Europe is a monarchy, so you can take it with R/RC. At 2 BB/province, you can take ca. 130 European provinces before the Revolution CB.

 

[Malurous]

I think you can wait and see if you get a border dispute on Avignon too, no hurry there at all.

No boundary disputes on capitals in DW. The only RNG solution for Avignon would be a mission - he'd have to be very lucky to get that.

 

[Barsoom]

Ah OK. Still no hurry, though.

 

[unmerged(58610)]

England's already taken 1 Kongo province. Since the colonial CB doesn't expire, doesn't it make sense to keep hitting in Europe? The DIP 8 means cores will come up. Japan will start having Catholic zealots revolt. Then DoW Japan and destroy every non-Catholic stack. The provinces will then defect to England. You may get really lucky and get Conquest missions for Castille and Avignon -I'm not holding my breath. More likley is a subjugate mission.
If Sopron defects to Austria , Austria will DOW Hungary, followed by Styria and you've then got an Austrian problem, because when Bohemia and Milan finally stop fighting, neither is going to have an army capable of stopping the Austrians. Taking down Austria sooner rather than later is a good idea, in my view. Taking the last of the Novgorod provinces off Milan would a good safety plan. I think Bohemia and Milan are locked in a death'shead embrace. WE is going to skyrockert and revolts are going to erupt all over their empires. Far from consolidating Europe, dismantling the HRE could have the opposite effect

 

[unmerged(463662)]

Prawnstar, congrats on how it's been going so far!

A quick question about boundary disputes: how do you get so many? I've had lots of dip 8 and 9 rulers, but boundary disputes are still a very rare occurance in my games.

 

[sprites]

You'll have to watch very closely what will do Burgundy ... maybe dismantle them , too
I was wrong on revolution and counter , it's monarchies only that can't do it on theocracies ..

 

[Barsoom]

Since the colonial CB doesn't expire, doesn't it make sense to keep hitting in Europe?

Opportunity cost. Imperialism is 2 bb/province, R/CR is only 1. It's cheaper to take European provinces later rather than sooner. Best to take out the colonials when other CBs are relatively expensive. But don't worry, since there are few targets for the Colonial CB, PrawnStar will have plenty of time to hit Europe as well.

 

[unmerged(58610)]

Opportunity cost. Imperialism is 2 bb/province, R/CR is only 1. It's cheaper to take European provinces later rather than sooner. Best to take out the colonials when other CBs are relatively expensive. But don't worry, since there are few targets for the Colonial CB, PrawnStar will have plenty of time to hit Europe as well.

Aside from the four Creek coastal provinces, I don't agree with you. There are just too many European provinces. Later means fewer provinces from any given warscore, which means more wars required. Austria-Styria-Switzerland taken links up the two halves of the Empire. I'd have left Novgorod alone. It was inland and thus no danger and its existence prevented the release of said state by Milan. In case Milan does fragment, I'd recommend taking the novgorod provinces, Iceland, Sardinai and Malta in your next war with them. After Burgundy, the next most likely candidates are Aragon and Hansa. Isolating Lombardy and helping youself to all those North Italian universities helpd your economy and tech progress more than taking the natives. Your next idea , for me, boils down to a choice between LOO and Viceroys. On balance, I'd go for Viceroys for its income boost.

Prawnstar's ecomnomy isn't strong enough to go mad colonizing, which is fine, since he's plenty of time. A slower pace of colonization is good. Every colony built is one magistrate used for fort construction to defend it and not preparing for trade spam. Colonize down from the Aztecs to the Incas, across to the Pacific and up to the Creek/Cherokee/Shawnee. A slow map spread is important - make that vital.

 

[Barsoom]

Aside from the four Creek coastal provinces, I don't agree with you.

That's fine, I hope to learn from the discussion.

I certainly agree that PrawnStar shouldn't neglect Europe, but there's no need for that. Pagans account for only 10% of BB over the next 100 years and colonies don't cost BB at all. Strikes against potential colonizers are a good idea, I agree with you on the Hansa (as I said before) and I think taking out Aragon is also a good idea. But Milan is just too big to reliably eliminate if/when they take Quest.

Colonization really is the only sure way of keeping the Europeans out. To seal the coasts quickly, PrawnStar needs to send every colonist he can and each one to a new province. I don't know if that's what you mean by going mad colonizing, but in fact, it looks to me that he's already doing that. Look at the number of settlements created around the Caribbean from the second-to-last to the last post. I think it's likely that he's reaching that point where old colonies grow into cities at the same rate as he can start new ones, so the costs won't rise that much anymore.

Besides, world conquest means owning every province, so it seems to me he's in just as much of a hurry to colonize as he is to take out already settled lands. Taking those inland pagan lands is IMO the quickest way to get colonial range on the unsettled wilds of North America.

 

[Aminti]

Barsoom has a point - there's only so much Pagansnacking that Prawnstar can do as the total BB for that isn't a lot. It's enough to overcome perhaps 15 years of BB, but not the 100-or-so to the almighty cheap R/CR Casus Belli. Additionally: Pagans have loads of money and usually are easy targets to overrun, so I expect that the Pagans will be staying alive for quite some time. Taking out Europe becomes a necessity if viewed like that - you just need to find the right provinces to do so. Republic provinces are top priority because this is the cheapest you're going to get and cutting the blobs down a little bit helps too. I maintain that taking provinces up north is a good idea now that he has the high WE reduction, but there is merit in chipping away at the Italian powerbase of Milan. There's also a mission in the game to get Rome back in Papal hands - it grants -3 infamy. Taking Rome off the Hansa has to wait until that one comes around, but the rest of Italy is fair game for him to take.

I do agree with Chief Ragusa that Viceroys is probably a very good NI to take next - along with building more light ships to raise his Tariff %. LOO is a static-ish cost decrease - it only scales with # of colonies, Viceroys scales with colonies, ships, higher income and whatnot. Smithian Economics or Scientific Revolution look like nice ones to have after that on Govt 41, but I don't know how SR plays out when you take ahead of time penalties into account.

 

[unmerged(58610)]

You're probably right about Milan being too big. Prawnstar's got a problem, if Milan takes Quest, whenever Milan gets around to it. He's too much to colonize on the Atlantic seaboard. MIlan naval tech and Quest gives a greater range than Prawnstar has. Right now Milan can colonize whatever it knows about and is range of its nval tech. It could certianly colonize Panama. Using every colonist Prawnstar gets isn't going mad and he'll bonuses from missions to find various pladces and the odd colonist rush - only 3 colonists - but every little helps and if he gets colonization missions, he'll get a colonist. Prawnstar can see plenty of targets already. At the colonization process' height, Prawnstar will need to be able to support 70 colonies at various stages of construction. That's a lot for the economy to support.

The Papacy will also colonize, so giving them Rome back will be a double edged sword. I'd still take the risk though.Hope to combine the mission with war on the Hansa.

 

[disgradius]

Haven't quite kept up with the latest developments but have you considered attacking an orthodox/protestant/reformed nation, offering to be force converted then force converting every other catholic nation? Once you convert back you'll have the entire college of cardinals under your control as well as access to a 2bb per province cb against other Europeans much earlier (although in this current game I guess that doesn't matter).

I would have also chosen to try to help Bohemia form the HRE. Attack random states in the HRE and surrender if Bohemia comes to their defense. Or even take unlawful territories and release them when asked for a possible 10 authority if Bohemia chooses to release them instead of keeping the province. Latter method is more expensive infamy wise but still cheaper than swallowing a bunch of opms. Considering how many imperial reforms were enacted, I don't think becoming the emperor and forming the HRE yourself would have been much work either, considering you can release former conquests for authority.

 

[Dauth]

First option is both cheesy and a nightmare in an empire this big. Imagine all the revolts, I don't think Prawn wants to spend the next 6 months playing whack-a-rebel.

 

[Malurous]

Lots of interesting discussion here - I'll add just a couple more points.

Re: nations taking Quest. It's been only the usual suspects so far, and pretty much when expected. If this keeps up and PrawnStar removes Burgundy's coastline, it's just OPM Corsica (that's a free Corsica and not one of the other Mediterranean greens, right?) left. As conquering Corsica won't be an issue when that happens, it comes down to 1) keeping any other "usual suspects" from regaining independence on the coast or expanding to have a coastline, or conquering them if they do, and 2) making sure no-one has a huge coastline, just to be sure. Of course the main point with 1) is making sure that it isn't an OPM revolter since that would add an extra BB cost (with the annexation possibly too urgent to wait for consolidation) - after all annexing any minor that emerges this way should be simple. Also, it's PrawnStar that owns the coast in most of the more dangerous areas. 2) should be less urgent as Quest is more likely to be taken late or never, but also poses the threat of disaster. This means that weakening Milan and taking their coastal provinces has to be an immediate goal, preferably in a way that pushes the nation towards the heart of the former HRE.

Re: the timing of the pagan conquests. Personally I'd go for a leisurely pace, except for the coast perhaps. Pick them up when a quick, painless BB boost is needed, other than that concentrate on Europe. Then push to eliminate any that are left a decade or so before R/CR becomes available for obvious BB saving reasons.

Re: Ideas. Nothing much to add here other than that taking something that reduces Papal Influence (such as Scientific Revolution) doesn't seem like the way to go when cardinal chance is of such importance as here.

 

[PrawnStar]

FEEDBACK​

Well that update certainly sparked a lot of debate - excellent that's what a gamoplay AAR should do


Magnive, uat2d, Malurous sprites - Thanks guys, I'll continue then on the basis that as a Republic I can use R/CR on anyone else who isn't a Republic.

GaiusC - Yes Crete is annoying - sits there every game and does f**k all. Both Crete and Avignon are going to be bite the bullet and take the 4BB moments. Ansbach and Genoa are in dangerous neighbourhoods

Chief Ragusa - The islands in the Med will need taking out one by one - not very happy about that but don't imagine anything else will happen - unless I remove all of Milan's other expansion options... Northern Italy can get very expensive so I intend to keep chipping away.

Barsoom - Gin is undrinkable even if it's becoming very fashionable again. Coffee and Bitter got me through my first two degrees, Tea and white wine the third (I have spent a lot of time dodging the job market and chatting to girls - sorry studying )

Aminti - I'm not sure who else might take Quest this late, as long as it isn't Milan I should cope - some of the coastal minors will be 'snack food' to help control the problem. Burgundy's colonial ambitions aren't too dangerous but all the same if they haven't got ports they aren't going anywhere! The building spam continues, Trade buildings in Western Europe and Production buildings in my COTs - Trade is around half my income ~ 1800/3500 monthly in 1679.

dragonizer - Everyone else recommends sealing the coasts that could be colonised you choose seal Europe - like your thinking Not completely practical in the short term but I will definitely remove some of the coastal minors.

yabba - As well as the high diplo rulers two thing come to mind, I have a lot of borders and I have low BB most ofthe time - both help immensely. I seem to recall a discussion around the factors behind Boundary Disputes earlier in the AAR but not sure exactly where you'd find it.


Barsoom, Chief Ragusa & Aminti - Good debate, I'll just write this one post response about it.

Crete, Avignon and various other isolated minors will probably just need taking out using the lowest cost CB, I won't bother hoping for a mission since it's very unlikely.

Ideally Japan can wait until R/CR but my cores would expire so I may have to spend more BB now so I can use the Reconquest CB for my cores. DOWing Japan until R/CR just to keep cores alive is cheesy.

Europe's coastline can't be sealed (yet) but I do intend to reduce the number of coastal powers wherever possible - countries like the TO and Aragon are on the hit list in a way that say Bavaria isn't. Burgundy will be closed off from the sea so that it focuses on consolidating Western Germany - a process well under way. The Hansa have problems of their own but they will disappear fairly soon regardless as they are a Republic.

Colonisation - some maps coming up - but I do need to push everything along. Shawnee for the coastal provinces is very high on the 'to do' list then I'll start heading up the Easten Seaboard. Colonial ranges are very long now - we're anything up to 150 years later for a colony rush than a usual game - so I need to settle all sorts of places to keep things under control. I'm going to mint to support more colonies up from 10 at a time to around 40 - I generate 4.95 colonists a year and colonies grow at around 100 a year. The economy doesn't really appreciate this

The pagans aren't very expensive so I'll annex them over the next few decades - no great hurry once the coasts are sealed but I do agree with Barsoom's view on opportunity cost meaning they need to be annexed before R/CR.

I'm pretty sure Europe will consolidate rather than fragment - it may not be the first country to try that becomes a power but medium size powers will appear.

Against Milan I'm going to go for some high value provinces in and around Northern Italy first, same with Bohemia - al those low value provinces in Scandanavia look like R/CR fodder to me. Both look too big to leave for R/CR.

Ideas wise I want LoO since I need colonies to grow fast right now - I can always swap once I've secured the coasts of the world - or at least most of them! Viceroys at Gov't 41 is possible - R/CR at 53!

Tariffs, yeah I know, really I do!
​

disgradius - Interesting idea, sounds tricky to implement and a little cheesy but could work. Have you tried it?

Dauth - Me, spend six months fighting rebels? I think not

Malurous - Proper debate, with good points and reasoned arguments, it's appalling get it off the Internet now! This is the 21st century, purile whining and personal abuse FTW - not. I'd forgotten about Corsica taking Quest, I'll keep an eye on that but lots of good points there - unless Milan takes Quest I should be OK and I do intend to spend some BB cleaning up Europe's coasts in the next few decades. Good call on the importance of Papal Influence affecting NI choices - I need Cardinals more than I need technology.

 

[PrawnStar]

CHAPTER FORTY SEVEN​

By December 1671 I’m ready for war with Burgundy.

Burgundy with a scattering of minors.

First blood

It’s late in the month, Flanders has already been forced to make peace after their fortress was stormed. It takes a year or so but I get enough war score to pick up a couple of provinces. Osel was already under siege by the Danes and Burgundy doesn’t have a navy, I’ll be back.

I’m still hoping that Burgundy will take out OPM Flanders but there is an alternative approach - Brabant is culturally Flemish so if it could be isolated…

BB is 9.87 / 23.00 falling at 3.40 a year. Time to march on the Swiss.

War with the Swiss - August 1673

By the end of the year no real progress has been made despite some bruising battles with Swiss and Bavarian troops in the Alps. BB is going to need a top up so I DOW Kongo to annex.

Kongo is annexed in April.

BB is burning very fast now and all my generals are caught up in the war with the Swiss and Bavarians. Mid summer isolated Brunei province Khorat defects to the Oirats! Brunei is down to three provinces and looks very much like a ‘top up’ war if BB gets short. Speaking of the Oirats, I’ve forced them to release Qin from vassalage four times. Every time they invade they vassalise, not good. August 1674, Bohemia and Milan make a white peace, it‘s taken at least 25 years to get to that point.

By the start of 1675 Switzerland has fallen to English arms. I was planning to take three provinces for 6BB to set up an annexation a few years down the line but…

To my surprise they can be annexed in one war!

Done.

Bavaria makes peace days later. BB is 15.30 / 23.00 falling at 3.40 a year.

Gov’t 33 is reached in June 1675, Land of Opportunity is an easy option for me here as it speeds up a colonisation drive that still isn’t going fast enough.

South America

North America

For what it’s worth I have colonised 72 Western Hemisphere provinces to date.

I remain at peace for another year or so to August 1676 (BB is 10.20 / 23.00) and then…

War with Milan

Objectives are mainly just grabbing some high value provinces although taking out the OPM vassals, Genoa and Savoy would be excellent. Genoa as a Republic is a definite priority. By June 1677 war score is +46 and I can stab hit although the unopposed Norwegian invasion of England is a problem. I’m still using the starting navy as the Home Fleet and got clobbered by well led modern Norwegian light ships.

Peace with Milan - October 1677

A lot of hard fighting and nearly four points of war exhaustion. That said two Milanese vassals gone including Republican Genoa and a couple of other provinces getting me closer to Northern Italy from the east. I could have taken another very cheap province but I’d rather save the BB for the next high value target. I thinking either Aragon as they’ll colonise if map spread goes wrong, Bohemia or Burgundy.

BB is now 14.58 / 23.00 falling at 3.20 a year.

By April 1679 war exhaustion is down to 0.32, BB is 9.93 / 23.00 and Burgundy is 12 days from building a War Galleon in Osel.

 

[Taylor]

Well you can just DoW them again, right? (truce should be expired by now)