The Historic Inevitabilty of Epic Failure

[unmerged(58610)]

Taking Budjak offthe Ottomans wouldseem to be the obvious solution and then start colonizing Horde provinces, except that the ottomans have superior troops and hate making peace. The Horde have a lot troops and will keep on coming (don't need to tell Prawnstar that, though).

Keeping on colonising to open up west africa is the best option. Taking land off the Mamluks down the Nile opens up the Horn and everything down to Mutapa. Unless Ethipia has survived. That would stymie the advance. Orthodox provinces aren't 1 pt a throw.

In Europe, England still faces a fulls trength Aragon and remnants of France and Burgundy. With troops operating sdo far from home, those remaining are insufficient to defend the conquests already made and the further England expands the more likely an Overextension event becomes.

 

[MacDunne]

Thanks for the strategy update. Looks like the taking of Budjak to deal with the Golden Horde situation is a popular gambit.

I lean towards Chief Ragusa assessment of opening up west Africa and taking the lands there along with a push towards India. (I would think the west African campaign would not take a big bite of your forces, allowing you to manage a second front.)

Look forward to reading your next update to see which direction you decided to go. (Knowing you, why do I have the feeling you figured out a way to accomplish all three goals!)

 

[stnikolauswagne]

Letting the GH eat europe seems like a pretty nice idea. As for a cb, you could take Bill of Rights as your next NI, it should give you a cb on all nations with a realistic chance of not getting eaten by the GH.

 

[Northen Wolf]

I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. ... Hi!
First, what took me 251 years to achive, has taken you only few years and with far less BB, amazing skills and awesome story telling! Thank you for sharing!
Second, I avoke one of your gameplay criterias:

By no cheese, I mean no deliberate PUs, cored vassal release, HRE inheritance or ahistorical tag hops. If you see anything you think is cheesy as opposed to cunning call me out on it.

I understand that many posters support the idea of attacking trollhemia to let hordes claim more land, but going into war with Bohemia on purpose of letting Hordes grab as much land as possible, is, IMO what you call 'cheesy'. Maybe I'm just whiny and complaining, but letting hordes conquer much of europe is probably not good idea from englishmen point of view or at very least, going to war on sole purpose of weaking horde enemies is probably bad idea aswell. If you're already playing no-move capital and no vassal release to lower BB, then why not play it harder way and let game continue as it'd would for most noobish players (like me, who do not know how to handle hordes)? But nevertheless of what you decide, I'll follow your AAR

question: I know that the question 'What are you building' has already been answered with answer ' level 6 trade buildings' but what have you built so far and how do you pick spots for trade/whatever-other-buildings-you-have-built (other than embassay)?

Thanks for this!

 

[unmerged(58610)]

I think right now Prawnstar could get away with taking a line of provinces that reaches from Budjak to Grodno, .

This creates a very long line of provinces that England simply doesn't have the manpower to guard. Better to have alliances with Lithuania, Teutonics, Austria, Croatia and Bohemia to intervene to prevent Horde expansion and limit
land taken by those states. I think I'd be looking to create revolts and fund patriots so that a state gets created that England can DoW using Holy War and provide a launching pad for reclamation of Horde lands.

 

[PrawnStar]

Sorry no update, busy, busy - I've actually got a voice conference scheduled for after I get home tomorrow night. Also I've not been very well this weekend but the plan is to try and get an update out by the middle of the week.

That said that's some pretty good discussion I've sparked off with that post on strategy and options. There's some great ideas and analysis.

I got the idea after reading Bornego's RUS AARs in the AGEOD forum - if you fancy reading some very good gameplay stuff then I recommend them. I wish I could write that well.

 

[PrawnStar]

FEEDBACK​

Lots of interesting ideas and comments. My view is that grabbing land off the Golden Horde before Bohemia colonises straight to Siberia is the priority. Building a single line of provinces from the Black Sea to the White Sea does seem pretty cheesy - it'll be a full on push hard and deep once I start - a line Novgorod-Astrakhan looks nice but a bit optomistic! Realistically I doubt I'll be able to deploy more than 32 - 40k of my armies against the GH. I want to leave the Timmes for a little while - the numbers are against me while I fight the GH. Getting to West Africa is expensive and I won't have the money or colonists while I'm pushing into the GH - the other BB areas are available and I'll make gains. There's BB in Europe as well particularly once the Reformation kicks in.

It seems to me the most pressing thing would be to take budjak from the OE, then use that as a beachhead to cut off bohemia from the GH, as none of the other AI countries are likely to have the strength to make significant gains until the tech disparity becomes totally overwhelming. I am unsure about the Ottoman/Timurid problem, but I think Bohemia is far and away the biggest threat to your delicious bb-free horde lands--perhaps you can kill two birds with one stone, taking budjak (and maybe some other land) while beating up OE, so that Timmies can push even farther into Anatolia?

EDIT: Sry, misread, thought you were talking about cutting the OE off from the timmies, when it seems you were talking about cutting them off from GH. Most of what I said still stands though.

I'd like the Timmies to take Anatolia then I can block the straits to keep them away

Arakhor - Give it a go it's fun!

mathl33t - I'm not sure about QftNW yet - possibly NI 4 or 5. In my test game I got through the Timmies fast enough but under prioritised the Horde so no fixed plan yet. I like Conquistador generals for pushing into Asia - discovering provinces without having to attack into TI.

KillShock - Pushing into the Horde is about taking land not just blocking - indeed only Bohemia is a problem here - possibly further North I should leave the Horde access west so they can eat some more provinces

Duke of Britain - I'm going to attack the Ottomans not keep them alive - I've come unstuck a few times leaving them intact until the endgame.

blsteen - I'd like the Timmes to overrun Anatolia - I think I can use ships to block the strait into Europe so a low risk way of saving several points of BB.

Memento Mori - meh, next I'll be giving in to rebels and running from American natives The Horde isn't particularly short of 'war machine' - they eventually get killed by the tech gap that opens up - so a bit of extra cash won't help them much.

Avindian - Not convinced about that - anyone who can field ~130k troops has a few quid going spare.

Paying tribute to the GH would hurt his research situation even more.

The best type of action IMO would be to cut Bohemia down to size. In a war against England Bohemia should peace out with the Horde which prevents further colonization. Forcing them to release Hungary and freeing their vassals (looks like Brandenburg is one but they likely picked up others as well) should also make any repeat attempts harder. The other eastern nations look nicely beat up at least.

Getting a core somewhere in the area so that the mass colonization can start at an opportune moment would be a good idea though.

I agree with all these points. My only practical problem was getting into a winnable war with Bohemia - can't see how to engineer a war with Bohemia that doesn't include Burgundy and Milan

loki100 - Thank you but to be honest I think my skills with the game are a comment on just how much time I've spent playing :blush:

Taylor - Good point, I'll play it by ear but I suspect I'll try and roll up the Timurids from the West and push them into India - the odd DOW to wipe out Indian armies might happen.

sprites - I'm going to beat a lot of Timurids The Ottos seem to cope OK with the Timmes so Bohemia taking on the Horde is probably what's keeping them alive.

On the problem of the hordes, here's my suggestion:
You take Budjak off the Ottomans, then occupy a line of Horde territoy up to the north (and maybe along the russian border) to prevent Bohemia et al to colonize all of their lands.
And then you hope they still deal with their armies so you basically just sit on that line of land, blocking any colonization. I don't know if that's too cheesy though.

Cheesy! And I'd still have to keep fighting them - I come to conquer not contain!

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the ability to colonize hordes restricted if you don't have a land connection between their provinces and your capital? I vaguely remember only being able to send colonists to inland horde provinces if they were within my colonization range - which could be a problem with a capital in London and lagging naval tech.

THIS! Yes I need a land border and a target province in Colonial range - this proves to be a complication...

Dewirix - I don't expect to make it to be honest but I'll try

gbuchold - Welcome along and thanks for reading. I can't quite remember what triggered the BB war phase but I think it was being confident of naval superiority in the Atlantic. More generally a big military advantage is the thing unless you're really up for a challenge

arosenberger14 - I've got the Holy War CB NI already (Number 2) it's handy. I see what you're saying about the nomads but they are a real nuisance if you just try and border them without pushing in. I would border them as I'd be killing their neighbours for the BB. I want to take them out while I Holy War

I think right now Prawnstar could get away with taking a line of provinces that reaches from Budjak to Grodno, because only Bohemia will have the strength to challenge the horde for a while yet (Sweden may become a problem later, but it looks like they'll be busy with their neighbors for quite some time). Once GH is free of Bohemian interference, they will be free to nibble away at Lithuania and the Russians. That will keep the size of this new front to a minimum, since defending a long snakey line of provinces from attack on both sides is less than ideal.

I agree with others that beating up Bohemia a little might be prudent--it's unfortunate to expend resources in a war that won't net any new provinces (considering the ultimate goal of this game, i mean), but if left to blob up more, the Czechs might become difficult to manage, especially if they decide to get uppity while the bulk of your forces are tied down elsewhere.

Apart from the line of provinces 'The Wall of Cheese' I am tempted to leave the Horde bordering Lith/Nov area to see if they'll take some more provinces.

aldriq - I'm England, I'll sink the Bohemian navy or die of shame LOL

isansom - I agree trying to control the Horde seems like a lot of resources, resources which could be used to conquer them instead, just saying.... Something that is interesting is that you can use Nomad vassals as a border to hide behind.

morningSIDEr - I played a test game and drink a lot of tea thinking about what to do. I'm not good at planning I am good at understanding a problem domain and root cause analysis (apologies for breaking into business speak but it does have it uses :blush

Nordhus - Yes, in range and bordering to colonise, exactly the problem I will soon have.

stnikolauswagne - Strange, if I get anything odd like that I'll mention it.

vasziljevics - I'd like to move the capital to Northumberland (much better beaches) but History is sadly disappointing on this score and the country was unified from Wessex's Winchester not Northumbria's Corbridge. Alas Nechtansmere.

sprites - I need to be in colonial range and have a border with the target province - still playing 5.1.

DeadeyeDave - 200 years early is more like it - I've missed the 300 year mark.

Franconian - I'll wait for a cheaper CB.

Taylor - Somewhat cheesy and screams dogpile England. Right now I can only get to Bohemia when they are alied with Bugundy and Milan - that war would be lost.

In Europe, England still faces a fulls trength Aragon and remnants of France and Burgundy. With troops operating sdo far from home, those remaining are insufficient to defend the conquests already made and the further England expands the more likely an Overextension event becomes.

THIS! - I simply can't put more than 30-40k into the field outside western europe or I won't be able to defend the heartland. War exhaustion is the killer as my cored provinces are easy pickings for numerous and advanced enemies

MacDunne - East Africa and the Middle East as prep for the push through the Timmies while I work on the Horde.

stnikolauswagne - I don't mind the Horde eating stuff - but once I turn up I'll be doing the kicking

Northen Wolf - Thanks for dropping by always good to see new posters. I agree with your sentiments about manipulating Bohemia it is a bit cheesy. I have no objection to the Horde doing it's thing (well I wouldn't would I after my last AAR LOL) but it can chew up the AI on it's own. As for building I'm mainly spamming Trade & Porduction 1 and 2 across my Western European provinces - the ones that don't have distant overseas penalties - I probably won't build much else as that'll use all my available magistrates.

Chief Ragusa - Why contain the Horde when I can put them to the sword!




Update soonish...

 

[Thandros]

Only Soonish Don't like the sound of that

 

[PrawnStar]

A bath, a cup of tea and playing with the cats

 

[PrawnStar]

CHAPTER TWELVE​

March 1472 and I simultaneous DOW the Mamluks and the Ottomans.

Oops, did someone forget this is a dangerous neighbourhood?

That’s more like it! It’ll be no great surprise to discover I’m able to take seven provinces from the Mamluks in a peace deal in June 1473.

With the Mamluks out the way I can switch my forces north against the Ottomans. OPM Algiers does revolt free a month later and is annexed in August. By late in 1474 I’ve established a decent position against the Ottomans (+35 war score) but don’t have the provinces I want… yet.

The plan is to take the Ottoman provinces bordering the Horde and then Sunni minors Bulgaria and Ragusa. The isolated Horde provinces in Bosnia are Sunni so when they revolt away (and a TSC is due) they‘ll form another ‘Holy War’ target.

Peace with the Ottomans - September 1475

BB is 8.27 / 21.96

The moment I make peace with the Ottomans I’m at war with the Golden Horde. France smells an opportunity.

January 1476 sees peace with the Horde so they can concentrate against Bohemia. Cherson on the coast north of Budjak is more than range 135 from my nearest core Tlemcen - and offshore the Gulf of Odessa is range 166. Colonisation in the Black Sea isn’t on the cards right now. I also DOW Sunni OPM Bulgaria and annex in February.

Castile vassalised - April 1476

Why do I feel as if I’ve guaranteed the location of every boundary dispute for the next century? France is peaced out for their treasury early summer. It’s September 1478 before I’m ready for war again. I DOW the Mamluks to claim my core on Sinai along with Holy Wars against three other neighbours; Jellybabies, Najd and Swahili. Diplomatic mode shows it best.

There aren’t many troops in shot; only 28,000 committed here. The start of 1479 sees peace with the Mamluks for Sinai and with the Jellybabies for Al Jawf - still no border with the Timurids. Swahili hands over it’s two Ethiopian provinces in May. Najd loses a province a few months later and in November the series of wars end with Oman releasing a two province Hedjaz.

Post War Red Sea - November 1479

I want to go down the Republican route but Feudal Monarchs can’t switch directly to Noble Republic.

To get there I have to jump backwards to Despotic at 1 stab hit then take 4 more stab hits to switch again. The plan was to wait until Gov’t 11 and Church Attendance Duty as my 3rd NI. After spending most of the last decade investing in stab I want to try and do some actual teching for a little while (mainly Land so I can smack the Nomads around). However in March 1480 I get a +1 stab event so make the switch to Despotic.

Legitimacy is shot so I cash in my 87% cultural tradition for a 4* Legitimacy guy.

By the autumn of 1480 Bohemia is still pushing forward and I have very limited options for war. Other than ‘Holy Warring’ my only CB is ‘Reconquest’ on Burgundy - something I can’t use as they are allied to Milan and protected by Imperial Bohemia. All three European majors field hefty armies and can call several minor allies - I’m massively outnumbered and I now border Bohemia…

Faced with that

Days later the Swiss attack Savoy dragging me into another war - at least fighting Milan clears the warning they’ve sent me.

The strike against the Ottomans works well as a quick land grab. I make enough war score to grab Bulgaria and redeploy as the truce with the Horde ends in February 1481.

France hands over Lyonnais (at 3BB) days later - they keep DOWing which isn’t acceptable when I need the French garrison elsewhere.

April 1481

Oh.

10.30 / 31.03 falling at 1.90 a year.

 

[homy_dog34]

Who is the emperor? If it's Burgundy, then... But if not, you should be fine and dandy in this... Hopefully...
Also, great job, as usual.

 

[blsteen]

Oh
So did Burgandy bring some Bohemian rhapsody?
Nevertheless, good progress on the Balkan front. I'm surprised that the Timmies haven't made more headway since the last update.

 

[Dewirix]

North-west Europe certainly looks like a headache, and will presumably remain so until the HRE can be dismantled, or at least reined in.

Are there other pros and cons of going to a republic besides allowing you to select for high diplo leaders to maximise infamy burn?

 

[Trinitrotoluen]

Are there other pros and cons of going to a republic besides allowing you to select for high diplo leaders to maximise infamy burn?

No regency councils. Also the fact that you have no legitimacy can be positive if you have buy out junior partners out of offensive wars.

This Burgundy DOW is a pretty good opportunity to strip them of their non-HRE possessions (to avoid formal requests). Also PrawnStar can DOW Bohemia while this war is still active and at least avoid interference from Burgundy.

 

[pyroclastic]

What was the point of vassalizing Castille? True, it lets you diploannex them for 1BB/province, but you'll be able to do that without vassalization when you get Revolution and Counter-Revolution. That's not for a very long time yet, but it's not like you're lacking in targets until then, and with them landlocked you don't need to worry about them colonizing.

 

[sprites]

Hmm .. Bohemia is pushing the horde quite a lot!

 

[Taylor]

So... what is your plan Prawnstar? I thought Cherson is out of reach? Are you trying to get into a war with Bohemia perhaps?

A pity Burgundy is using the intervention CB. Oh and: war with France AGAIN :wacko:

 

[Legolas]

What was the point of vassalizing Castille? True, it lets you diploannex them for 1BB/province, but you'll be able to do that without vassalization when you get Revolution and Counter-Revolution. That's not for a very long time yet, but it's not like you're lacking in targets until then, and with them landlocked you don't need to worry about them colonizing.

It may be a way to stop them attacking England or making alliances against it. Also, whatever small army they have would help with rebel whacking and wars in the region.

 

[unmerged(239095)]

Sinai is a core?
if you have the cash, you should start building a fleet there so you can make land grabs around the indian ocean,
without needing to sail a fleet around the cape.

 

[aldriq]

There is not much Burgundy left to speak of (though they are still probably quite wealthy with those low countries provinces). Nice land grab in the Balkans, you'll have the area consolidated in no time, as long as you don't end up in a 3 front war unprepared...