Truman: It's been an eventful month, gentlemen. Let's hear the rundown, starting with diplomacy.
Byrnes: Thank you, Mr. President. Gentlemen, the State Department has been busy this month, arranging trades with several countries, allied and neutral. We are attempting to secure consistent inflows of cash to cover the costs of diplomacy and intelligence, as internal revenues are entirely tied up with funding research. We secured alliances with Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela this month, bringing our alliance to a total of six nations. In accordance with the President's request last month, I held brief negotiations with the foreign minister of Cyprus, and his nation is quite willing to join the Allied Nations should we request it.
Of course, I will leave our options open until you request I finalize an alliance, Mr. President. I have more to discuss regarding our allies, but Admiral Leahy has requested I delay my comments until later in the meeting, so that's all I have until then.
Truman: Very well, intelligence next. This is our first report from Admiral Hillenkoetter.
Hillenkoettter: Thank you, Mr. President. Good morning, gentlemen, it's a pleasure to meet you all at once. As I have spoken to each of you individually this month, I will get right down to business.
We lost an agent in Australia this month, but this doesn't seem to have impacted our intelligence.
The Australians made substantial progress on their two research projects, and will complete these projects in February without a doubt. The only change to their military or industry was the addition of one small vessel of unknown type.
We lost an agent in Italy as well.
Losing that agent impacted our intelligence on Italian research, although we can obtain an accurate picture through analysis. At the start of last month, Italo Balbo was nearly finished with Assault Breakthrough doctrine and clearly completed that project in January, although he has been assigned another project. Graziani is almost finished with the Assault Concentration doctrine he was working on last month, although we do not know how the precise status of the project. FIAT completed its design of semi-modern anti-aircraft artillery, and Cantieri Navali Riuniti has accepted funding to design a new ship or submarine, we presume, given their strengths. Giulio Natta has made substantial progress on an improved hospital system.
No change to Italian industry, and any changes to the Italian military are due to our over-worked agents losing track of units.
We managed to insert an additional agent into Germany in January.
As a consequence we have identified six more German infantry divisions and one more panzer division. Our count of German battleships was reduced by one, thanks to the efforts of the Air Force, but the CIA is certain that
Bismarck still serves in the Kriegsmarine, although we do not know where. We sank two destroyers this month, and that is reflected in the reduced count of smaller ships. No German research projects were completed this month, although they might complete a few this month. Only one more factory commenced proeduction in Germany this month. We think this is the ceiling for German industrial capacity, barring new advances in technology or further territorial acquisitions.
Our analysts have also changed their estimate of German industrial focus, as they now think the Germans are attempting to build a navy to contest control of the seas. Previously they had emphasized the training of infantry divisions.
Truman: What's the thinking behind this shift?
Hillenkoetter: There are three theories, Mr. President. Some analysts think the Germans intend to fight the Japanese next and are building a navy to fight the IJN. I find that unlikely, as any reasonable strategist would want to remove the common and weaker enemy--that's us--before making a new one. The second theory is that the Germans intend to invade the United States; this falls in line with what I think would make sound German strategy. Finally, some analysts have concluded that this shift is due to German manpower exhaustion, since ships require far less manpower per factory than army units. In my estimation, the truth is probably some combination of the second and third theories, although the first theory should not be categorically ruled out.
Truman: Thank you, Director; you may proceed.
Hillenkoetter: Yes, sir. Moving on, we have Japan, where we recruited another agent in January.
Our shortage of agents has produced some wildly varying military estimates since we started reporting on Japan. The Japanese have a larger army than indicated here, we just have a difficult time keeping track of which units are where. We've located and identified all the Japanese carriers and battlecruisers, but can't locate three Japanese battleships.
Nakajima completed its design of a basic escort fighter, so we might see Japanese fighters escorting their tactical bombers in the future. Nino Automobile has begun developing basic field artillery but this project, like all the others the Japanese are currently working on, will take substantial time to complete.
We've recruited no new Chinese agents recently.
Reports still indicate a large Chinese army with a substantial air arm. These reports are highly imprecise however, as we have far too few agents in Nationalist China. National Machine Works completed whatever project it was working on, probably early mountain division equipment, judging by previous reports. Huangpu Military academy should be close to finishing its Great War hospital system, given that it had made substantial progress by this time last month.
As for our own research, General Bradley completed his new doctrine and I assigned his funding to Kelly Johnson's Skunk Works, in accordance with the President's order from the annual review. Admiral Nimitz tells me he expects to complete his carrier aviation doctrine within the month.
Truman: You sure have spent a great deal of time on that doctrine, Admiral.
Nimitz: I'm a submarine man by trade, Mr. President. Carrier warfare is not my specialty at all, so doctrinal research in that area takes time.
Truman: If you say so. Admiral, do you have anything else?
Hillenkoetter: Yes, sir, actually, I thought I should report on some interesting, if minor, developments in Chinese Russia. Partisans have taken some provinces from the Chinese.
Of these, only Tetukhe is really of any value. Nevertheless, this is promising news, as mobilized and armed partisans will serve as a good distraction for the Chinese army. That does it for my reports.
Truman: Industry next, then security.
Kaiser: Thank you, Mr. President. American industry has performed well under stress this month, gentlemen.
We have reduced the total number of factories required for production by thirteen factories, thanks to some production innovations by General Bradley. This has aided us in negating some of the drain on our supply stockpile throughout the month. Convoys require substantial supplies and Operation Reprisal also required additional supplies this month, so our stockpile has fallen by over three thousand tons. I'm not certain this is sustainable for a long period; I will make arrangements with the State Department to bring in additional supplies via trade should our stockpile need replenishing.
Over two hundred thousand men have been called up for service this past month, with literally millions more to follow in the future. Our resource inflows have slowed somewhat, since we are pouring resources into our allies' ports and shipping large quantities of materials off to neutral nations in exchange for their gold. You can see the daily effect this is having on our cash reserves. We require three factories for reinforcements at present, although only 570 more men are needed to bring our units back to full strength. Transports are the units requiring the most repair at present, due to action off Iceland late in the month. That's all I have to discuss.
Hoover: Good morning, gentlemen, Mr. President. I have few comments this morning, as internal security is not a serious problem at present. I understand I can expect three garrison divisions every month for as long as necessary, so I am confident that we will have enough men to fully suppress partisans in the Caribbean and contain partisan activity on foreign soil in the future. I have nothing else to add.
Truman: Then let's hear from the military.
Leahy: Thank you, Mr. President. As operations this month required extensive cooperation between the services, I will discuss them myself, rather than have the independent service commanders report on their respective contributions.
The first major action this month was the Japanese attempt at taking Newfoundland. The Japanese deployed six divisions against our three in Newfoundland but found the combination of General Middleton's defences and our naval bombers too much to overcome. We sank six transports off Newfoundland and eliminated six Japanese divisions in the process. Speaking of naval bombers, here are our current patrol zones.
Staying in the North Atlantic, Operation Parasol commenced and completed in January, with nearly zero casualties.
The only losses we suffered were to transports attempting to return to the United States to ferry more troops to Iceland. Building up to Operation Stuart this year, we have deployed twenty interceptor squadrons to Iceland to organize so they will be effective when the time comes to fight the Luftwaffe over England.
There was some naval action this month, as Admiral Nimitz and Admiral King attempted to destroy two German U-boat fleets. Admiral King did manage a feat no American vessel has managed in quite some time: USS
Independence sank 13. Zestoerergeschwader; it's been months since an American combat vessel sank an enemy ship. Nevertheless, the Air Force accomplished most of the sinkings this month.
The Navy lost a light cruiser off Hawai'i in January, in support of Operation Reprisal. Reprisal has been temporarily aborted, although the Chiefs and I think it imperative that we take Hawai'i soon so as to extend our naval bombers' range of operation.
Truman: Our transports have already been intercepted off Hawai'i once, Admiral, what are the odds of that happening again?
Hillenkoetter: Actually, Mr. President, if I may interrupt, the CIA thinks that the Japanese navy is not currently deployed in such a fashion to further interfere with Operation Reprisal. One of their carrier fleets, the one that sank our cruiser, botched Reprisal, and ran afoul of our naval bombers is repairing. The rest of the Japanese carrier fleet is in port far away from Hawai'i at present, along with three of their battleships. Their battlecruiser fleet is also deployed too far from Hawai'i to have any effect, and their cruiser squadron is, we know, in the South Atlantic. This leaves three stray battleships, which we do not think are even in the Pacific, to foul up our plans.
Truman: So you would recommend Reprisal go forward?
Hillenkoetter: It's not my place to make a policy recommendation, Mr. President, but I can confidently assert than Reprisal would succeed in at least putting troops in the Hawai'ian Islands, even if it proved impossible to withdraw them. The IJN is simply based too far away to interrupt a landing in time to stop it.
Leahy: Do we have your permission then, Mr. President?
Truman: Yes, Admiral. Reprisal gets the go-ahead, for the second time.
Leahy: Thank you very much, Mr. President. I will issue the orders as soon as this meeting concludes. Perhaps the most significant news of this month came from Liberia. Japanese troops have landed and occupied Freetown and are marching on Monrovia as we speak. They would have already taken Monrovia were it not for the valiant, if foolhardy, efforts of our Brazilian allies, who have shipped enough troops through the Japanese cruiser patrols to delay Japanese progress. Unfortunately, the Japanese blockade has managed to stem the flow of troops into Liberia and the current situation is grim.
I am certain that without substantial reinforcement, Liberia will fall to the Japanese. Of course, at the War Department, we have reached the consensus that Liberia is not important at present and are relatively unconcerned with the loss of this ally.
Byrnes: The State Department does not concur with this consensus, Mr. President.
Truman: I didn't expect so. Admiral, let's hear the Secretary out.
Byrnes: Thank you, Mr. President. First of all, we have just brought Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela into the fold. It would seem careless and even insulting if we were to callously write off our Liberian allies as lost when we have exerted precisely zero effort to defend them. Our thoughtless disposal of Liberia would dishearten our Latin American allies and convince them we are concerned only for our own narrow interests, rather than the interests of our alliance or the greater good of the world. Second, and I should think this entered into your discussions, Admiral, Liberia will serve as a vital base for operations in Africa in the future. Why cast aside a valuable base and surrender it to the Japanese, when we could easily protect it and avoid the costs of liberating it in the future?
Leahy: The costs of defending the Liberians now and maintaining that base, Mr. Secretary, far outweigh the benefits of not having to retake it in the future. To prove that point, let me present the sunk ships report for this month.
The Air Force sank numerous enemy ships this month, but the tide turned against our alliance with the sinking of USS
Honolulu. Since then, the Brazilians have lost seven transports, two destroyers, four light cruisers and both of their battleships. The Venezuelans suffered two losses themselves, one light cruiser and their only transport were sunk by the Japanese. With the transport losses in mind, here are the military force comparisons as of today, starting with the navies.
You can see that the Brazilians lost nine infantry divisions and a militia division, while the Venezuelans lost an infantry division at sea. These losses are, from the military's viewpoint, unacceptable and unaffordable.
Grumman: If I may interrupt, Admiral, those losses are disastrous, to be sure, but they shouldn't really affect our thinking, as we can't do anything about them. Our discussion should pertain to our future action and the benefits and losses from those actions, rather than the damage we sustained in the past.
Truman: A fair point, Leroy. Secretary Byrnes, your recommendation for this next month would be to redirect our resources toward rescuing Liberia, rather than building up for Operation Stuart?
Byrnes: I feel we must, Mr. President.
Nimitz: The problem is that it's practically impossible, sir. Neither our Navy nor our allies' navies can compete with the Japanese for dominance in the South Atlantic, even against a Japanese cruiser squadron. The only workable solution I can come up with, and this doesn't guarantee we can save Liberia, is for the Brazilian, Mexican and Venezuelan air forces to commence a naval bombing campaign in the waters between Brazil and Liberia. In time this can make the South Atlantic safe for passage. Unfortunately, I don't think this will work quickly enough to rescue Liberia.
Bradley: It's the thought that counts, Admiral. At any rate, we need to take military control of our allies if we're going to effect such a change in their strategy.
Leahy: My point exactly, General Bradley, thank you. The United States must take the lead militarily in this alliance, now that we've taken the lead diplomatically.
Byrnes: I can get behind this position, since we have resolved to at least attempt to defend Liberia. I fully support this course of action.
Truman: That settles that, then. This meeting has gone on long enough, so we'll bang out the details of our new combined strategy in the very near future. Secretary Byrnes, how soon can we arrange for the United States to take military command of the Allies?
Byrnes: I think we could manage it this morning, actually, Mr. President. Of course, a formal treaty will take some time, and should be signed in a suitable locale; I have a spot in mind. At any rate, practical military control can be ceded to us almost immediately. I'm certain our allies will accept.
Truman: Excellent. This has been a productive meeting, gentlemen, and a productive month, despite some setbacks. I hope February will prove to be equally, if not more, successful.
