I personally hardly give the Centrals a chance BEFORE the Marne, but from a gameplay point of view we obviously have to let them have more of a chance, although I'm still generally against a CP Italy as it makes it far to difficult to balance with the current set up of the game, we've buffed the Central Powers a lot since the days where Italy going CP was practically needed instead of optional.
I don't think I'll be able to hold the German push this game, although I wouldn't exactly say that's call for a nerfing of Germany right now as honestly I think much like last game my advice to a beaten CP was "play better" my advice to an Entente on the brink of defeat is also "play better" as player mistakes (Whatever that was in Montenegro, Russia being Russia, and me forgetting to switch to defensive stance and letting my militia get in the way once to often) are probably a good reason why the situation is as it is. But that said, while I do think the British and French can in fact drag the Germans to a stalemate eventually in a France first game (assuming Russia puts pressure on in the east), I don't think it's possible with Italy in the CP as the game stands, simply too many troops for us to contain and once they link up with the Germans the numerical superiority means trouble for the Entente. Although we should probably wait until Japan gets involved before delving to far into that.