In my experience, it's usually the people with the highest martial skill that are at the top, which makes sense. But there's also a random factor, which also makes sense, and makes it more enjoyable. I think your craven stressed dwarf is just an outlier, unless other people have this happen to them often, too...?
Edit: From tournament_events.txt, the character event for winning the tournament has a mean time to happen of 10 months. This is multiplied by a factor of 0.75 (increasing a character's odds of winning) for having a Martial ability of >=8, >=10, >=12, and >=14 and multiplied by 1.25 (decreasing the odds)for having a Martial ability of <7, <5, <3, or <1. There is only one winner. All capable 16-year-old males who are attending the tournament and not in prison are eligible.
The calculation is identical for second and third place, but someone who has won first place is not eligible for second place, and someone who has won first or second place is not eligible for third place. Because first place is decided first, and then second place, and then third place, the person with the highest martial skill is more likely to get first place even though the odds are the same for the second and third places. Note that if if two people have a Martial skill of 14 or more, they have equal probability of winning, even if one has a Martial of 30 and the other has only 20, for example.
Getting all bonuses means a MTTH of 10 months * 0.75^4 = 3.1640625 months. Getting all maluses means a MTTH of 10 months * 1.25^4 = 24.4140625 months. 24.414062 / 3.1640625 = 7.716049382716049382716049382716
Code:
mean_time_to_happen = {
months = 10
modifier = {
factor = 0.75
martial = 8
}
modifier = {
factor = 0.75
martial = 10
}
modifier = {
factor = 0.75
martial = 12
}
modifier = {
factor = 0.75
martial = 14
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.25
NOT = { martial = 7 }
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.25
NOT = { martial = 5 }
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.25
NOT = { martial = 3 }
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.25
NOT = { martial = 1 }
}
}
Tl;dr: Your odds of winning are determined solely by your Martial ability, provided you are older than 16, male, not in prison, and capable. People with a Martial skill of 14 or higher are about 7.72 times as likely to win a particular place as people with a Martial skill of 0.
