Trading is ineffective once "the war" starts. You only get like 15 or 10% of what you are asking for. I usually just cancel all of my trades by then.
Fourtantly I have good news for you Mugen. Germany has one thing in excess. Coal! Everything in HoI runs from coal. If you have a lot of coal you can be very nearly self-suffecient economically (with a smattering of steel).
Thats good, becaue thats what Germany has to do.
If you played the 1936 Scenario, by now you have the first two synthetic production techs, one that helps convert coal to oil, and another to convert oil to rubber, right?
No you dont, I see. Shame on you. Next time do! From day one start production research. You should never go a single day without a gold Industrial tech being researched as Germany. Britain and France get their own rubber. Russia and the US get their own oil. But Germany more then anyone else runs on an entirely coal based economy which makes good conversion techs vital.
As for your immediate problem. Well there is like 7 oil in a province in Greece (Thesselaconia I believe). Other then that, SoL. I dont recommend declaring war on Turkey. You can take them over, but itll require a decent commitment of troops and Russia is likely to declare war on you while you are away. Northing worse then watching 300 Russian divisions roll relentlessly towards Berlin past your screening force in 1941 while the bulk of your army is away on sideshow diversions (not that I know from personal experience or anything!)
Best case is to try and get some more coal. Yugoslavia should be gone, so should Greece. You shouldnt be hurting to bad if you have those two and a relatively small navy. If you really are still crunching it, when you go to war go for the Ukraine (coal) and then south to the Caucaus (oil). Just like History. Watch the salient at Stalingard though.
Btw - Sidenote on economies. Ive been seeing a lot of economic posts lately which is troubling to me because people shouldnt have to struggle to much.
The countries fall into the following catagories
Self-suffecient
Britain and France are entirely self-suffecient in all 4 areas. Just protect the conveys and you are ok.
Oil Based
The USA has no rubber, but such a sick amount of oil it doesnt matter. You dont even have to research Synthetic Rubber techs to boost the conversaion rate.
Russia to a lesser extent is like the US. Its oil isnt nearly as rich and as your economy expands you may begin burning coal. But with appropiate conversion techs you can run off your oil reserves fine. So unlike the US Russia has to invest in production techs heavily.
Coal Based
Germany. As mentioned Germany is and remains almost entirely a coal-based economy. This means Germany will run through 2 conversions, coal to oil, and then oil to rubber. At game start this is incredibly ineffecient. Germany should, and in fact has to, lead in Industrial Techs throughout the game. You never get access to oil or rubber until you reach the Caucuas, and by then youve won the game anyways. But you do get coal rich areas like Poland, France, and Yugoslavia. The name of the game is industrial research for Germany.
Screwed
Italy and Japan are the only two majors who should struggle with economies. They have suffecient resources to run their initial economies. Unfourtantly both initial economies are only 180 IC or so and have to be expanded greatly to continue to compete. Consquently, with such small economies, they also tend to lag in Industrial Techs and therefore constantly suffer from ineffecient conversions.
For Italy the name of the game is ultimately going to be Iraq. Getting Yugoslavia, Albania, and Greece help some because you get a spot of oil and good coal. But eventually if you want to run a 300 to 400 IC economy youll need to get to Iraq and its big oil producers. Fourtantly that matches up with your strategic aims well, mainly getting Egypt to link Ethopia by land to Libya and knock out any potential invasion threat from britain in the med.
Japan is tough. Your economy is mainly steel, which cant be converted to jackshit. You have to acquire the coal provinces in China quickly to do anything at all. Fourtantly about the time your economy is headed for a collapse you should get French Indochina. The rubber there provides some MUCH needed relief. Once you annex China though worries are over. The amount of resources you get from annexed areas as opposed to merely controlled areas is fairly substantial. Those coal regions which barely helped the economy subsist before, once annexed, can help you run a rather robust 500 IC economy. Taking Indonesia and Malaysia for its oil and Rubber is almost a luxury after the conquest of China. Of course, if you dont conquer and annex China, then they become an imperative. And hello Pearl Harbor then.