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Macroeconomics

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Introduction To A Spanish AAR

Spain.jpg


Setup

Victoria Revolutions: All Hot Fixes
Difficulty: Very Hard / Furious

Rules

All moves and actions must be realistic and possible in reality. The list of restrictions include but are not limited to :

A. Across The Great Divide

No absurd naval invasions. D-day was the largest naval invasion ever and took an extreme amount of coordination, planning and effort, and not to mention the complete naval and air supremacy. All of that was simply to cross the English channel. So invading Washing D.C via wooden ships is completely out of the question. Colonial landings if reasonable of course will be acceptable.

B. Asian Playground Rule:

Limited manipulation of China and Asia.

C. The AI Is A Person Too !

No manipulation of AI. (e.g. tech trading for British India )

D. Load Rule :

NO RELOADING to get better outcomes. If my nation gets screwed, I’m sure it will only serve to make things more interesting to the reader.

E. WWI Rule :

I am allowed to start a global conflict if necessary anywhere from 1905 – 1936.

F. Bad Boy Rule:

It must stay under 40. You are building an empire not an evil war machine. You must be viewed with awe and admiration around the world, not fear and resentment.​

G. We have nukes but our ships are made out of wood

Research cannot be extremely uneven. It is massively ahistorical to ignore fields of research, and therefore I will attempt to keep all research fields within 4 advancements.​

Economic Reporting

The key economic statistics of the great powers of the world will be reported on a yearly basis. GDP, population, and GDP per capita will be reported every January 4th. The report will include limited analysis of the GDP trends and explanations for major outliers.

There are several economic indicators in Victoria, but the two primary ones are a nation’s industrial score and its exports. Industrial score steadily rises as more factories are produced, your literacy rate rises and general progress through the industrial revolution. Unlike true GDP however, it is not cyclical, it does not (generally) rise and fall throughout the years, it nearly always is making a slow and steady march upwards. Also unlike GDP it has only a very indirect impact on your nation's finances and budget.

A nation’s exports is cyclical due in part to the fact that fluctuations in prices for national production impacts output. It also has a very direct impact on the budgetary concerns of your nation. Of the two measures, it is certainly a better indicator for the gross domestic product.​

Problems and Solutions to GDP Reporting

The primary problem with exports is that in can be woefully inaccurate. For example if a nation had just promoted pops before the reporting date the indicator will vastly under report the average total export of a nation. Another factor that could impair the accuracy of reporting would involve scenarios like a nation completing an occupation of new territory in which the export figure could jump dramatically.

In order to get the best possible estimate for exports there will be lowered activity just before the reporting date. In addition the published export figure will be an average of the 3 days prior to the reporting date. Any exceptions or outlays will be noted and explained.​

Reporting GDP Per Capita

GDP per capita will also be reported. It will be a relatively arbitrary number, but it will give a general sense of the export growth that cannot be attributed to population growth. Since no one will want to see figures such as .000075 for a national economic indicator, the figure will be multiplied by 1000000 to give numbers such as 75.34.

Summary

This won't be a story driven history with characters and a plot. As you have probably already guessed it will be a cold history of facts, numbers and news. Heavy use will be made of pictures in order to better paint the landscape of a world that may turn out very differently than our own.​
 
Last edited:

GrimPagan

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Spain was one of my favorite nations in Ricky, so good luck.
 

Estonianzulu

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Smart rules, perhaps I should try to follow them a little more religiously as well. Will be interesting to see where you take Spain. I've never made it past the 1880's before collapse.
 

LeonTrotsky

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Spain is always hard to play, and will be especially with rules like that to stick to.
 

Eärendil

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Now that's just the AAR style I like to follow. I'm sure this will be an interesting one.
 

Macroeconomics

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1936

1936 The Belligerence of Nations

Once a great empire that stretched across the seas, Spain had been reduced to a minor power and a non factor on the European continent. Despite heroic resistance during the Napoleonic wars to France's attempts at occupation, it remained extremely backward.

Hampered by terrible literacy and political unrest Spain was a nation on the brink of permanent mediocrity. The glory that was once theirs seems far removed from the trouble ridden country that controls the Iberian peninsula.

The%20Carlist%20War.jpg

Spain Backs Isabella

Spain recognized the right of Isabella to lead Spain in a direction away from the tradition monarchy. The country had seen only decline under the rule of the strict Monarchy and the people understood the need for change.

WAR !!!
The people still imbued with the idea of their Nation as an imperial entity came to despise the existence of Portugal on their peninsula. Soon the tension boiled over into war and an unprepared nation high on the fumes of glory rushed to prepare for a conflict it was totally unprepared to handle.

Battle%20of%20Ria%20de%20Averio.jpg


The battle of Ria de Averio was the result of this rushed war. A naval battle off the shores of Portugal turned into a disastrous defeat and Spain would fight the rest of the war without naval support as the remnants of the fleet remained docked in Vigo.

Spain%20Portugal%20Conflict.jpg


Despite Spain's rushed attempt at an invasion, Portugal was even less prepared for the conflict. Despite their success at sea, they slowly lost ground and eventually their capital of Lisboa.

It could be argued that if the war had dragged out, Portuguese forces could have expelled the Spanish invaders. Brutal terrain and guerrilla forces dramatically slowed Spanish progress as its forces wheeled north. Portugal was weary and could not sustain the heavy demands of a war that had no end in sight.

End%20of%20Portugal%20Conflict.jpg


No Rest For The Wicked

Spain's belligerence would not end there. Soon after the end of the Portuguese conflict, a toehold on Africa was desired in order to expand its colonial holdings. On October 21st 1836, Spain entered its second war of the year by invading Morocco. A victory in Morocco would give Spain a chance at opening a gate to the dark continent.

morocco%20conflict.jpg

The Spanish army and navy, now freed from their efforts in Portugal land men on the coast

The 1836 Economic Report

1836%20Economic%20Report.jpg


Spain, despite its backward nature was able to execute 2 wars (one uncompleted) without destroying the fiscal budget. Falling into debt only 1,200 while maxing spending on defense spending and army maintenance was a significant accomplishment.

As seen in the data above however, it remained the poorest nation in Europe, trailing even Russia in GDP per capita. The UK's numbers are of course skewed by the fact their population is held up by their Indian holdings, so their GDP per capita includes the prosperity of the Indian populace and their other colonial holdings and not simply the citizen of the UK. It can be assumed that England would rank roughly 3rd in GDP per capita without colonial holdings.

No growth has been recorded for the year as the previous years numbers proved extremely unreliable. Rough estimates by the Spanish Economic Unit suggests that of the other major powers, the UK is the most likely to see an increase in nominal GDP (exports) as well as GDP per person due to rapid industrialization of the English mainland.
 
Last edited:

unmerged(51332)

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Are you planning on taking all of Morrocco, or just a couple provinces?
 

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Nice, but for the period, the numbers could be about 20-25 times lower if you want your tables to be a bit more realistic.

Is there any intent towards an american reconquest? Empress of Peru has a nice ring to it, and with that Saxon upstart up north ;) ...
 

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I'm more interested in the growth figures than the nominal figures, so the realistic interpretation of "exports" doesn't worry me too much. ;)
 

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1937

1937 : Concern Rising

The war in Morocco raged, but considering the gross discrepancy in force strength and quality the result was a foregone conclusion. Already the Spanish government was establishing a sort of puppet state where the Spanish forces would come to own all but Morocco's capital province.

Spanish industry began to struggle as the price of steel exploded and made the arms industry extremely unprofitable. It was decided that the best course of action would be to close down production. The stress of war was beginning to show in the Spanish industry as the focus of the government was elsewhere.

Throughout the year, those who disagreed with the imperialist aims of the government showed their displeasure with current events. On Feb 25th, revolts broke out in Puerto Rico, followed by revolts in Cuba on May 26th. There were also several noted incidents in Spanish occupied Portugal. With the army busy subduing Morocco, these rebellions ran rampant.

When a smuggling incident broke out with France, Spain opted to take the blow to national image to improve relations with its powerful neighbor. This course of action eventually lead to France's guarantee of Spain's independence. Now Spain could keep its attention diverted expanding into Africa.

Spain further rejected the past in the decision of desamoritisation of the church. With the money from the desecration of the Church's holdings, the national debt was paid off and the country had a surplus for the first time in years.

End%20of%201937.jpg


1937 Economic Report

1937%20Economic%20Report.jpg


Russia's explosion in GDP worried many public officials, but economists knew that the rate of growth for 1837 was far above their potential and with current levels of innovation could not be sustained.

The severe recession of the Prussia came as an unexpected event especially in a period in which the price of steel had boomed. Given the level of sophistication of the Prussian industrial sector, this is likely a temporary setback as it still lags an inferior US economy.

Spain's growth of 4.34% in GDP per capita may be misleading. The major cause is likely the restructuring of Spanish industry and the closing of major unprofitable arms factories. Given Russia's growth, it remained the poorest of the great nations by a widening margin.

Expect Russian GDP growth to slow dramatically and the Prussian slide to cease. As long as Spain continues to devote significant resources to war, the only increase in GDP will come from occupation of Morocco.

**EDIT** Originally the data suggested it was the U.S who had the recession, this has been corrected.
 
Last edited:

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I strongly encourage other interpretations (if any) of the data presented. There were no major wars abroad during the time periods mentioned and I will certainly keep everyone aware of any major developments in those countries.
 

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Interesting and very well written. What research fields are you focusing on? The logical way for improving GDP would obviously be Industry-> Mechanical production which will no doubt put you up there with Austria.

Will be following this.
 

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Dysken said:
Interesting and very well written. What research fields are you focusing on? The logical way for improving GDP would obviously be Industry-> Mechanical production which will no doubt put you up there with Austria.

Will be following this.

In 1937 Spain perfected the practical steam engine and current research is indeed focused on mechanical production. As a side note, I have decided I cannot completely ignore naval research as I do in many games. I'll add it to the list.

Not to mention on Very Hard, the computer gets a massive bonus to their production, it will be an uphill battle to catch them.
 
Last edited:

unmerged(59737)

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*Subscribes*
 

Estonianzulu

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bsressler said:
In 1937 Spain perfected the practical steam engine and current research is indeed focused on mechanical production. As a side note, I have decided I cannot completely ignore naval research as I do in many games. I'll add it to the list.

Not to mention on Very Hard, the computer gets a massive bonus to their production, it will be an uphill battle to catch them.

Thats always a problem I run into with my Vicky games. I turn around one day and discover my ironclads are gettign sunk left and right by battleships. Good luck keeping up, its always the hardest part.
 
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Hmm this aar seems interesting. :)
 

unmerged(59077)

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Interesting, and economy is certainly a different perspective.
 

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No Step But Forward

1938 No Step But Forward

As the conflict in Morocco came to a close the battered nation looked to restore order before turning weary eyes elsewhere. The question on the table was concerning the rebelling colonies. Where they worth the constant attention of a busy nation? It was decided that if Empire status was ever to be restored no step could be backwards.

1838%20End%20Morocco%20Conflict.jpg

A Simple War Draws To A Close

An overstretched Spanish navy landed expeditionary forces in Portugal, Puerto Rico, and Cuba, to crush local resistance. The lose of colonies would be an affirmation that all that was once glorious about Spain would crumble.

1838%20Puerto%20Rico.jpg

The 1st Corps Lands In Puerto Rico

The international community remained distinctly unimpressed by Spain's bullying of neighbors and prestige remained near all time lows (-13). At the moment this certainly did not seem the proper path to garner the envy of powerful nations.


1938 Economic Report


1838%20Economic%20Report.jpg


As noted from the data above, Prussia bounced back strongly after a poor showing in 1837 with 14% growth. The U.S however continued to boast stronger year over year growth. With a vastly superior literacy rate and nearly the same number of factories (15 vs 16) the divergence has been attributed to superior natural resource production in the U.S which in theory should not continue to provide an elevated rate of growth.

As predicted Russia's rate of growth went slightly negative, failing to sustain previous substantial gains.

The rates of growth have been at astronomical levels for nearly all of the great powers and have had an extreme variance. Thus far the U.S has been the clear leader in growth while Spain lags.

You can expect Spain's economy to outperform over the next several years due to technological innovation but the U.S economy is likely overheating and will combust at some point without the influx of immigrants.
 

unmerged(59077)

Tzar of all the Soviets
Jul 17, 2006
5.575
7
Hehe. Economies overheating in Vicky.

But that's certainly a novel way of looking at it. I think part of your situation is the new population in underdeveloped areas - Morocco and Portugal, namely - pulling down the already-small average.

What's your ruling party's economic platform?