After a discussion on whether culture affects the AI's tendency to target nations, I decided to test a few hypotheses in a controlled experiment. I invite you all to replicate my experiment by downloading my scenario. I am also interested in criticism of my technique; I believe I have controlled the scenario, but I may have slipped up somewhere.
(1) Having a core on a province owned by another nation increases the chance of an AI targeting that nation.
(2) Having the national culture of a province owned by another nation increases the chance of an AI targeting that nation.
(3) Having the same religion as a province held by another nation increases the chance of an AI targeting that nation.
To test my hypotheses, I created a new scenario (called 'AI Tendency Test 1') in which only ten countries existed. One of these was the test subject (France), which was given many advantages to encourage it to declare war quickly. It was also set to 'default.ai' to avoid targeting any specific nation. Another was the observer nation (Zimbabwe), which was given to the player by default. The remaining eight nations were 'targets' for the test subject, representing all possible combinations of same/different religion, culture and cores (2x2x2 = 8). Each target nation had only one province, neighboured only France, and had the exact same taxvalue and population as the others. Each also had the state religion and state culture of its province. Reformed religions were allowed but all of France was Catholic (to avoid it spending time and money converting instead of waging war).
I used more-or-less historical nations for simplicity, but it should be understood that these countries do not represent their historical nations! All relations with France were set to -100 and France was given a casus belli with every target nation on day 1 by event.
In so doing, I hoped to eliminate the effects of alliances, dynastic marriages, sizeable armies and good relations on declarations of war.
24 games were played, each until France declared war for the first time, at which point the game was ended and that target given a point. 24 was chosen as a reasonably large number that gave each target an average of 3 times if declarations of war were completely random.
France (test subject): France owned many provinces, all of which were national provinces (had cores), were Catholic, and had French culture. All of them had tax collectors as well (in earlier tests France spent some time building them, which slowed down my experiment). France also had cores on the Huguenots, Brittany and Burgundy. The French AI was set to 'default.ai' and given a starting army of 50,000 as well as a starting navy of 20 ships (although they did not use them, France began building ships as soon as the scenario began, so I gave them some).
Burgundy (target): Burgundy owned Bourgoune province and was French Catholic, claimed by France. Culture & Religion + Core
Brittany (target): Brittany owned Moribhan province and was Gaelic Catholic, claimed by France. Religion + Core
Provence (target): Provence owned Provence province and was French Catholic. Culture & Religion
Navarra (target): Navarra owned Béarn province and was Basque Catholic. Religion only
Huguenots (target): The Huguenots owned Poitou province (to avoid them neighboring Brittany) and were French Reformed. Culture + Core
Lorraine (target): Lorraine owned Lorraine province and was French Reformed. Culture only
Flanders (target): Flanders owned Flanders province and was Dutch Reformed. Core only
Switzerland (target): Switzerland owned Bern province and was Swiss Reformed. Control - no similaries to France
France inevitably declared war in the first 9 months of the scenario. The number of times each target was chosen by France as its initial victim in 24 tests was:
Burgundy: 12 (50%)
Brittany: 10 (41.7%)
Provence: 0
Navarra: 0
Huguenots: 2 (8.3%)
Lorraine: 0
Flanders: 0
Switzerland: 0
(1) In 100% of 24 tests, the AI chose to attack a country owning a core province. This suggests that using cores to help influence an AI's expansion is a useful strategy - assuming, of course, that the target country is in a weaker alliance (if any at all) than the AI and that no significantly weaker alliance exists!
(2) A country owning a non-state religion province was chosen less only about 8% of the time, suggesting that the AI gives these provinces a low priority.
(3) Provinces with the same culture were chosen slightly more often than provinces of a different culture (12 to 10); this suggests a slight tendency for the AI to choose same-culture provinces, all else being equal. However, the difference between these choices is small. More testing is needed to determine if this effect can be attributed to AI behavior or simply random chance.
The effect of cores was so strong that the rest of this experiment may be flawed; it would be interesting to perform this experiment again without the core targets (Brittany, Burgundy and Huguenots) to determine AI behavior.
This experiment assumed all taxvalues to be the same; it would be interesting to increase the taxvalues of non-core provinces to see if this changes AI behavior.
It would be also be useful to perform this scenario again without Brittany and Burgundy in it to see how often the AI chose the Huguenots (core but non-state religion) over non-core provinces of the same religion.
Hypotheses
(1) Having a core on a province owned by another nation increases the chance of an AI targeting that nation.
(2) Having the national culture of a province owned by another nation increases the chance of an AI targeting that nation.
(3) Having the same religion as a province held by another nation increases the chance of an AI targeting that nation.
Setup
To test my hypotheses, I created a new scenario (called 'AI Tendency Test 1') in which only ten countries existed. One of these was the test subject (France), which was given many advantages to encourage it to declare war quickly. It was also set to 'default.ai' to avoid targeting any specific nation. Another was the observer nation (Zimbabwe), which was given to the player by default. The remaining eight nations were 'targets' for the test subject, representing all possible combinations of same/different religion, culture and cores (2x2x2 = 8). Each target nation had only one province, neighboured only France, and had the exact same taxvalue and population as the others. Each also had the state religion and state culture of its province. Reformed religions were allowed but all of France was Catholic (to avoid it spending time and money converting instead of waging war).
I used more-or-less historical nations for simplicity, but it should be understood that these countries do not represent their historical nations! All relations with France were set to -100 and France was given a casus belli with every target nation on day 1 by event.
In so doing, I hoped to eliminate the effects of alliances, dynastic marriages, sizeable armies and good relations on declarations of war.
24 games were played, each until France declared war for the first time, at which point the game was ended and that target given a point. 24 was chosen as a reasonably large number that gave each target an average of 3 times if declarations of war were completely random.
France (test subject): France owned many provinces, all of which were national provinces (had cores), were Catholic, and had French culture. All of them had tax collectors as well (in earlier tests France spent some time building them, which slowed down my experiment). France also had cores on the Huguenots, Brittany and Burgundy. The French AI was set to 'default.ai' and given a starting army of 50,000 as well as a starting navy of 20 ships (although they did not use them, France began building ships as soon as the scenario began, so I gave them some).
Burgundy (target): Burgundy owned Bourgoune province and was French Catholic, claimed by France. Culture & Religion + Core
Brittany (target): Brittany owned Moribhan province and was Gaelic Catholic, claimed by France. Religion + Core
Provence (target): Provence owned Provence province and was French Catholic. Culture & Religion
Navarra (target): Navarra owned Béarn province and was Basque Catholic. Religion only
Huguenots (target): The Huguenots owned Poitou province (to avoid them neighboring Brittany) and were French Reformed. Culture + Core
Lorraine (target): Lorraine owned Lorraine province and was French Reformed. Culture only
Flanders (target): Flanders owned Flanders province and was Dutch Reformed. Core only
Switzerland (target): Switzerland owned Bern province and was Swiss Reformed. Control - no similaries to France
Results
France inevitably declared war in the first 9 months of the scenario. The number of times each target was chosen by France as its initial victim in 24 tests was:
Burgundy: 12 (50%)
Brittany: 10 (41.7%)
Provence: 0
Navarra: 0
Huguenots: 2 (8.3%)
Lorraine: 0
Flanders: 0
Switzerland: 0
Conclusions
(1) In 100% of 24 tests, the AI chose to attack a country owning a core province. This suggests that using cores to help influence an AI's expansion is a useful strategy - assuming, of course, that the target country is in a weaker alliance (if any at all) than the AI and that no significantly weaker alliance exists!
(2) A country owning a non-state religion province was chosen less only about 8% of the time, suggesting that the AI gives these provinces a low priority.
(3) Provinces with the same culture were chosen slightly more often than provinces of a different culture (12 to 10); this suggests a slight tendency for the AI to choose same-culture provinces, all else being equal. However, the difference between these choices is small. More testing is needed to determine if this effect can be attributed to AI behavior or simply random chance.
Follow-Ups
The effect of cores was so strong that the rest of this experiment may be flawed; it would be interesting to perform this experiment again without the core targets (Brittany, Burgundy and Huguenots) to determine AI behavior.
This experiment assumed all taxvalues to be the same; it would be interesting to increase the taxvalues of non-core provinces to see if this changes AI behavior.
It would be also be useful to perform this scenario again without Brittany and Burgundy in it to see how often the AI chose the Huguenots (core but non-state religion) over non-core provinces of the same religion.