The Die is Cast: The Soviet Union & The Cold War

[El Pip]

I warned you about hanging around with that bounder Jape, he's infected you with his abandoning ways. Last month your asking about Vicki or Vicki2 for a British AAR and then you abandon it before even starting it, even he was never that bad.

Still it's an interesting period you've picked, though for this to be a properly Soviet AAR any dies that are cast by Soviet industry will have to have the wrong number of sides. And probably have bits of twig in as well.

 

[c0d5579]

... And rattle when held loosely without any agitation, and roll at 3/4 the speed of their western equivalents, with a four-die-width turn radius.

 

[4th Dimension]

Yes, but are guaranteed to survive a nuclear apocalypse.

 

[unmerged(62170)]

General_Hoth: Why thank you.

Milites: Good to know - next updates will be dealing with international reaction to Stalin's death and the post-war geopolitical situation.

c0d5579: Ah I get you - well I never said I abandoned TBTM. Tomorrow Never Dies.

Sandino: Mismanaging Ukrainian agriculture. His rise to power is connected to Stalin putting him in charge of the Moscow Party in late 45/early 46 because he saw him as trustworthy. He'll no doubt be influential, but due to his 'persona', I doubt he'll move much beyond Premier of the Ukrainian SSR without major patronage akin to OTL.

H.Appleby: Cheers.

El Pip: That idea has not gone but I'd like to do a little more modding and reading before giving it ago. Surely thats better than starting and giving up?

El Pip, c0d5579, 4th Dimension: I'll have you know the Ministry of Heavy Chance Instrument & Spinning Top Production has, after much glorious struggle produced Die-1. At 19 metric tons, made of solid steel it is far larger and more expensive than any die in capitalist production and is also the only board game accessory with a plutonium core. Sadly after its failure to roll due to weight, fragility and radioactive exclusion zone, the General-Secretary has ordered that such "weapons of plutocratic gambling and vice" be de-activated and 're-zoned' into what remains of the Aral Sea.

 

[c0d5579]

If you'd managed to include "reactionary," "imperialist," and "counter-revolutionary," I'd now yell "BINGO!"

 

[General_Hoth]

What I'm curious about will be the relation with the other communist party of the Internationale

 

[unmerged(62170)]

What I'm curious about will be the relation with the other communist party of the Internationale

Well Molotov is a staunch Stalinist and Beria was often in charge of 'vetting' local leaders so not much will change their at first. However I can say changes in foriegn policy will have some knock effects for comrades across the seas.

the next update will deal with the international reaction to Stalin's death and should be around later this evening.

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

The internal bickering of the Politburo promises to be as interesting as Stalin's purges...

 

[unmerged(87160)]

I think this will be the first Soviet AAR I'll be following. Again great work, Dr. Gonzo. Just keep up the good work, it would be a shame if this AAR gets abandoned like Stiff upper lip and Tomorrow belongs to me.

 

[unmerged(62170)]

Chapter .2
The Devil You Know​

The People Mourn​

News of Joseph Stalin’s sudden death shocked people the world over. On October 11th 1945, images of the late dictator covered the front page of every newspaper and magazine on the planet. Regardless of opinion, the world stopped to consider the life of a political giant. In the USSR there was a tidal wave of grief and mourning. Despite the millions of lives lost and countless more ruined in the purges, collectivisations and industrial drives of the Stalinist era, to many he was the saviour of the nation. The heir to Lenin, he had seemingly changed Soviet Russia single-handedly from an economic and political backwater into a superpower, recognised amongst the leaders of the world as a force to be reckoned with. More importantly to many he had led his country against the forces of fascism and won, driving Nazi Germany from the gates of Moscow to the streets of Berlin. Although the reaction in as repressed and indoctrinated a society as the post-war Soviet Union should not be taken at face value, there is no doubt of the sincerity of many citizens. Across the USSR local party officials were flooded with requests to rename everything, from cities to factories to flowers, in Stalin’s honour.


Meanwhile as the Politburo announced the internment his body alongside that of Lenin in Red Square, the ruthless NKVD hierarchy was riddled with confusion as how to respond to spontaneous public outpourings of bereavement, as they quickly outpaced and overtook staged events. Elsewhere similar scenes where witnessed. In Paris and Rome, local communists organised vast marches in recognition of the late dictator. In China too, areas under the control of the People’s Liberation Army briefly stood down from their decades long struggle against Chang Kai-Shek’s Kuomintang regime to honour Stalin with a ten minute silence. Beyond the Marxist faithful a sombre atmosphere still prevailed. At a time when the grand alliance against fascism had yet to fully give way to the divisions of the Cold War, the image of benevolent ‘Uncle Joe’ still held some currency in the West[1]. The embryonic United Nations issued a resolution mourning his passing. In Britain, former prime minister Winston Churchill recognised his role in defeating Hitler, while President Truman delivered a curt message of condolence via the US Embassy in Moscow.


Beyond sentimentality, Stalin’s death caused a geopolitical shockwave, as the United States and her allies struggled to ascertain the future course of Soviet policy. In the weeks that followed, as the supremacy of Molotov and Beria became apparent, the predictions of analysts only became more unsure. Molotov, while serving as the Foreign Commissar had had many interactions with Western diplomats and leaders. He was broadly seen as a disciple of Stalin, in both his domestic views and nationalist foreign policy - “Soviet comes before Socialist” he had once remarked. However while both men were known for their reserved negotiation style, Molotov, the cold, calculating bureaucrat was a world away from the paranoid and emotional Stalin. President Truman in particular debated if this was a good thing. Indeed, given Stalin’s ‘hands-on’ approach to wartime diplomacy, many in the State Department wondered if Molotov would not now follow a completely different path. Beria meanwhile was, beyond a sinister reputation, a virtually unknown entity to the outside world. During a rare diplomatic outing, Stalin had jokingly introduced him to Churchill at the 1943 Tehran Conference as “our Himmler”[2]. Naturally alarms bells rang at the prospect of such a malevolent figure by Molotov’s side.

President Truman (l) with his Secretary of State, James F. Byrnes. October 1945​

Well into November, Allied forces in Germany were on high-alert as everything from Marshal Zhukov crossing the Elbe to a total Soviet pull-out of Eastern Europe was predicted. Ultimately however very little changed in the immediate aftermath of Stalin’s death, as the USSR focused on economic recovery and repatriation efforts. The first noticeable shift, came in Turkey on December 1st. Rising to power in the same period and with similar aims of modernisation, the USSR and Kemalist regime in Ankara had enjoyed a cordial relationship during the interwar period. Soviet loans had helped fund the Turkish War of Independence, while the 1925 Non-Aggression Pact and 1927 Istanbul Trade Agreement had cemented close bonds between the two nations. In 1936 however, the Montreux Convention granted Turkey sole sovereignty over the Bosphorus Straits, causing a rift with Moscow. During the Second World War, relations declined further as Turkey, seeking to placate Hitler, had granted German transports passage through the Straits[3]. Despite Ankara’s declaration of war against Berlin in February 1945, ties only worsened.


In March, as Red Army forces massed in Soviet Armenia and occupied Bulgaria, Stalin demanded not only right of passage into the Mediterranean but basing rights in the Straits and the ‘return’ of the Imperial Russian provinces of Kars, Artvin and Ardahan. For several months war seemed imminent, while numerous Turkish diplomatic efforts to subdue tensions were snubbed by Stalin. Finally, President Ismet Inonu approached the Western powers to intervene. At Potsdam in July, President Truman and newly elected Prime Minister Clement Attlee forced Stalin to relent. Despite removing the immediate threat, Soviet grievances remained. Although Molotov had led the aggressive Soviet diplomatic mission in March, he lacked Stalin’s hatred towards the ‘treacherous’ Turks. Similarly, the new Foreign Commissar, Anastas Mikoyan saw access through the Straits as a geopolitical prize worth pushing for and was well aware of British efforts to bring neutral Ankara into the Western sphere. In late November, Mikoyan flew to Istanbul to meet with Inonu.


With possible military action still acting as a powerful leverage, the Soviet delegate offered to rescind demands for military bases along the Bosphorus in exchange for a treaty allowing all Black Sea states military access through the Straits. Such a proposition had been suggested by Truman in Potsdam but Stalin had fobbed it off as a weak compromise. The sudden change of tone surprised the Turks, while the amiable Mikoyan contrasted sharply with the stoic Molotov. Regardless of charm, Mikoyan was no benevolent peacemaker, he sort to remove Turkey wholesale from the Western orbit. The issue of the eastern provinces still on the table, Mikoyan suggested a new non-aggression pact and trade agreement as a sign of faith in Turkey’s willingness to “govern the region and its people with just intentions”. Desperate for a resolution, and keen to mend ties with the Soviet Union, Inonu, after several days of tense negotiation, agreed to Mikoyan’s offer. On 1st December, Prime Minister Sukru Saracoglu arrived in Moscow, and was received with a level of pomp and ceremony not seen for a Turkish dignitary since the 1920s. At a meeting in the Kremlin with Chairman Molotov, Saracoglu signed a 10 year Non-Aggression Pact, while in Ankara, the Soviet trade mission re-opened after four years of self-imposed exile[4].

Mikoyan (c) arrives at Yesilkoy Airport, Istanbul. November 1945​

The Turkish-Soviet Pact led to rumbles in Washington and Westminster. Although technically much of the deal had actually been proposed by Truman, the Allies had secretly hoped the USSR’s aggressive posturing would lead to Turkey turning to the West for protection. Ultimately it was not Turkish neutrality that upset them, much as during the Second World War, it was assumed a neutral Turkey would be more valuable as a barrier to Middle Eastern oil than as a militarily weak ally. Instead it was the prospect of Soviet access to the Mediterranean. A long held goal of successive Russian regimes, the historic passage of the light cruiser Krasnyi Krym through the Dardanelles on 9th December came not from the dramatic seizure of historic Constantinople, but amicable backroom compromise. The image of Red Fleet warships and submarines prowling the strategic waters of the Eastern Mediterranean left the British Admiralty in particular, charged with defence of the Suez Canal, more than a little concerned. As 1946 began, the next logical step in East-West tensions was with regards to Turkey’s neighbour; Greece.


Despite the Turkish agreement, Admiral Nikolai Kuznetsov, commander-in-chief of the Red Fleet, was quick to point out the strategic implications of the Aegean islands in any foreseeable wartime naval deployment. Much as the Royal Navy had learned to its cost during the abortive Dodecanese Campaign in 1943, the rugged archipelagos offered redoubtable bastions for both aerial and naval domination of the region. Kuznetsov extrapolated his point for Molotov and others members of the Politburo during his first cabinet meeting as Naval Commissar on 14th January. He noted that while the region posed a massive obstacle to any would-be attacker, it could equally provide the Red Fleet with a powerful base of operations from which to project its own power out towards North Africa and the Near East, were it within the Soviet sphere of influence. The Admiral’s words were not mere musings. The topic of Greece had been one of growing importance in recent weeks and months, as political unrest within the country seemed ready to explode into full-scale civil war.

War-torn Athens​

[1] I have a feeling, without the events of 1946-53, Stalin’s legacy will be even more controversial ITTL. Instead of the Berlin Blockade, Prague coup, Korean War, Doctor’s Plot and numerous other questionable events to his name, he will be primarily remembered as the nemesis of Hitler. With the slide into Cold War happening under Molotov and Beria ITTL, the agreements at Tehran etc. and his ‘socialism in one country’ doctrine, he might be mourned as the man who could have avoided the Cold War! I’m tempted to do a ‘Man in the High Castle’ double-blind what-if story on this.

[2] True. Stalin had a dark sense of humour to say the least.

[3] Strictly speaking this isn’t against the Montreux Convention but that might be missing Stalin’s point.

[4] The Straits Crisis was probably the most easily avoidable of all the post-war diplomatic incidents under Stalin’s rule. Turkey in 1945 was keen to remain neutral, and due to past ties, keen to show good faith to the Soviets over the Bosphorus. However a combination of resentment over German access to the Black Sea and an interest in prodding Anglo-American resolve in the region made him lose sight of his original goal: access to the Mediterranean. By 1952, Stalin had pushed a friendly neutral neighbour into becoming a fully-fledged member of NATO and eventually, US missile base. I don’t want to overstate Stalin’s absence in this AAR, but frankly I just can’t see Molotov or any other Soviet leader completely screwing this up to the level he managed.
​

 

[unmerged(76261)]

So Mikoyan is pushing for a more softly-softly approach? Then again Molotov's name does translate as 'hammer' so its not too hard to come off more genial.

 

[Karelian]

Wellwritten Soviet alt-history is always enjoyable to read, keep up the good work

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

May I suggest that Mikoyan changes his looks? For a second I thought that Adolf was back

 

[Zzzzz...]

Nice alt history. Subbies

 

[H.Appleby]

Oh dear, I suppose we'll have to base our bombers in Greece or Israel now? Also, how will the rise this Soviet Empire affect Israel? Beria actually had his Czech cohorts sell them weapons which Stalin was planning to use as justification to purge him. Also, Beria was quite keen on an alliance with the US of A as I recall. He even went as far as to suggest giving us East Germany in exchange for aid.

 

[unmerged(62170)]

Sandino: To an extent, Mikoyan is much more a diplomat while Molotov really is just a bureaucrat. Mikoyan was and will be here something of a Soviet Kissinger, shuttling in and out of delicate situations to quickly resolve the conflict. Hell IOTL he had to drive an APC through wartorn Budapest to get to his meeting with Imre Nagy. So he'll be fun.

Karelian: Thank you, coming from the author of Prisoners of Silence that mean alot

Kurt_Steiner: Yes, it does seem several post-war Soviet leaders were determined to win back the Chaplin moustache for socialism.

Zzzzz...: Cheers

H.Appleby: Heh, well the next update will show which way the wind blows in Greece. On Israel, I'm not too sure. TBH, Beria did supply them but at Stalin's request before changing his mind and becoming a paranoid anti-semite in the 1950s. Without Stalin around you have Beria whoes closest lieutenants are Jewish, and Molotov whoes wife is Jewish. So Israel, a bunch of dedicated anti-fascists living in communes will probably have Soviet backing for a while longer but unless things change dramaticaly from OTL, I think geopolitics will eventually see Moscow side with the Arabs.

On Beria's moderate foriegn policy, a lot of it came through watching Stalin's last batsh*t insane days and losing all love for Stalinism, and becoming 100% pragmatic. Here not so much but, well you'll see.

Update tonight or tomorrow morning.

 

[H.Appleby]

.

On Beria's moderate foriegn policy, a lot of it came through watching Stalin's last batsh*t insane days and losing all love for Stalinism, and becoming 100% pragmatic. Here not so much but, well you'll see.

Update tonight or tomorrow morning.

That makes sense, Stalin alienated a good deal of people after the end of dubya dubya two. I mean Beria probably frickin' poisoned him so that's at least one guy down. Murdering people rarely ends up paying off in terms of good pension plans, generally you are executed by the law or by other murdering murderers close to you.

Author's Note: All the stuff relating to Stalin is true, 1945 did see him suffer several strokes and heart attacks. He even loved Westerns, though relied on an interpretor due to a lack of subtitles on the stolen films.

Wait a minute, I was rereading this and I saw that footnote. Several heart attacks and strokes in one year? What the hell did Uncle Joe have an Invincibility cloak or something?

 

[c0d5579]

I suspect that the Western intervention in this Greek civil war will probably be more rigorous than OTL, given that Turkey is drifting into the Soviet sphere.

 

[El Pip]

I think the most interesting part will be Soviet supported Israel. With Turkey gone and the prospect of Greece going more rigorous I wonder which way Washington will jump on Israel; engagement, coup or making them a pariah?

 

[Karelian]

I wonder whether this Soviet leadership will have anything against the Bled Agreement? A Yugoslav-Bulgarian Balkan Federation would really rise the stakes in Greece. Speaking of which, I can't wait to see how things will turn out in Czechoslovakia and Finland - the Allied Control Commission is still stationed to Hotel Torni in Helsinki, and the SKP has recently scored a sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections of 1945.

With Zhdanov executed, TTL Control Comission will most likely follow a different course. And while the SKP leadership is still debating whether to try an outright coup or not (basically waiting for orders from Moscow), the former Civil Guards and Army officers are busily hiding weapons to illegal supply caches in order to prepare for potential Soviet occupation...It looks bad, to say at least.

And then there´s Czechoslovakia. And the upcoming Peace Conferences...