Interesting beginning to this series. The close quarters and move away from the advantaged European powers really shakes things up and gives it momentum.
It will be interesting to see who knows how to best leverage institution progress to force a temporary tech advantage.
I do feel that Starnan and Wiz are in superior positions due to their locations, with either less competition (Wiz) or easy access to plenty of AI's to devour (Starnan). The Timurids shattering early also helps him immensely, with an easy path to Arabia and the ability to cap the flow of trade.
The colonial powers are somewhat protected on their islands, but colonization will be brutally slow (and quite expensive) for quite a while. Go off and build secret empires that others can't see. Sell off provinces and move capitals to 'colonial' regions for a major advantage.
Predictions for this week:
The fall of Athutthaya (mostly to Dai Viet)
The betrayal of Bahmanis (possibly Viyayanagar, but being in middle AND adjacent to Jake and Starnan is a bad place to be)
... if this doesn't happen, the happy trio has to fall on Jake and gut Juanpur while he's still low on manpower and high on loans. Bengal should turn coat, since they got very little except ruin for sticking in his shadow.
Starnan runs along the coast and makes it to Hormuz.
Wiz talks everyone into ripping Ming apart. and takes the lion's share for himself. (And also finishes off the Oirat)