But with who I thought the split in the Entente would happen similar to how it happens in Hoi4 with the Germans offering to give back northern France in exchange for the French Empire to enter mittleuropa
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That track is dumb IMO
Would West Germany have joined the Warsaw Pact if the USSR offered East Germany back?
Imp Fra basically runs on Militarism and Oil money, they basically need to go to wars or expeditions to maintain their basic existance by making sure Oil prices remain high, and also so they could have a strong holding in the mediterranian.
Its like in Vanilla Victoria 2, abusing revanchism due to having cores not owned by you to increase jingoism in a sense.
They may SAY they want to get Paris back, but their survival for the next ten or so years depends on them not having it, which doesnt neccesery mean they wont try at some point when getting high on their own propeganda, thinking they can take on germany for some reason, or even Mittelafrika if they think they can get away with it (they cant).
Heck they might even demand their carribean islands, guyana and St Pierre back and war over that.
In any case they are not long for the world and dont have ant tools to deal with it that dont involve giving up everything.
True I only thought it because it’s something that can happen in the actual mod for the game.That track is dumb IMO
Would West Germany have joined the Warsaw Pact if the USSR offered East Germany back?
I think it will be difficult for North and South France to reunite even if South France lose the rest of their empire. How would you sort out the issue of Napoleon and the German king? How would the institutions work? What would the relationship with Germany be?
The problem is there are two Frances, one of which is organically French but doesn’t have French leadership and one of which has French leadership but isn’t organically French
That's the whole Korean Dilemma isn't it?
Honestly some form unification will eventually happen no doubt. When it happens however, might be out of the scope of this AAR.
IMO One way the Unification could happen, is with some deal with Germany, perhaps once the world reaches some state of Global institutions. Or Nukes become a thing, forcing the countries to work together in a world where every hegemon of their respective region has WMD. With the reasoning for unification being quite simply to avoid either of the two sides getting trigger happy due to issue of 2 Frances in the world and turning Elsaß-Lothringen to a Maginot that glows in the dark.
Personally, like Korea, I feel there are most likely significant differences between Northern and Southern/Imperial France at this point due to being split between German spheres in the North and Entente influences in the South. Heck, considering that Imperial France has formed a Syncretic culture with Arabs in North Africa, I imagine that both Northern and Southern France would have some cultural distinctions from each other, with North France having German influences and Imperial France having Arab ones. Through I do imagine the Magreb-French, like North Korea, would promote a lot of revancist propaganda around conquering Northern France, its just I think, like with Korea, most people would probally not care for a French unification at this point.
While we are talking about France, how is Islam doing in TTL? I imagine that political Islamism pretty much doesn't exist here since the Middle East seems to have been stabilized under a non Wahhabi monarchy in Arabia and there doesn't seem to be as much instability there to lead to Islamic extremism and Baathist nationalism there, through I could be wrong considering the Ottoman collapse. The Sykies-Picot Agreement not occurring in this TTL and the Saudis being crushed certainly helps with. Through I imagine the relgious situation in Imperial France would be werid, being split between Christian French and Muslim Arabs in North Africa.
Would there be generational gaps in Canada and Germany? I imagine that in Canada, generations are probably not that different from each other in terms of values and cultural traits since the Authoritarian system react generational turnings well, so I imagine that they are pretty much similar to OTL's 1950s America. Germany on the other hand, would have the crisis following Mittleafrica's collapse that could lead to a generational gap, like how the Counterculture and Vietnam lead to America's baby boomer generation to drift apart from older generations, or how Germans born after WW2 in OTL are differnet from the Germans under Nazi, Weimar and Imperial Germany.
What is Babelsburg like ITTL? Of course I imagine it would be the most influenital cultural force in Europe at this point, like how Hollywood in the Pacific States are for the Entente, but would there be artistic movments there like Weimar Germany had with German expressionism (think of films like The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari or Metropolis.) or America had with the New Hollywood movement of the 60s and 70s?
Thats coming from an assumption that south france will be able to participate in the negotiations in any way when the time comes.
A unification would happen once either collapses, and its not going to be Germany.
Sand France isn't East Germany. It's self-sustained itself for 50 years at this point. Even if they have to pull back to the French mainland they're going to have a lot of guns and militant piednoirs and no intention of just collapsing
If anything, its the NORTH France that's the one which is most unstable currently.
Not to mention that it holds more land in France proper, as the North-South split is not 50-50.
Been talked few times, and nuked atleast once by mods for being against forum rules.
However, general consensus seems to be that Middle east is better off this time line due to whole Middle Eastern Crisis shifts the religious and cultural minorities around to create more ethnically and religiously unified states. Similarly, Islamic extremism as by our world's standards, wouldn't really exist as there is no funding for it.
And Imperial French religious situation is quite odd. However it does seem that French-Maghreb unification is more cultural, rather than religious.
Is it truly self sustaining though?
It MASSIVLY relies on trade, not to mention the inherant corruption of being a Junta.
They hinge on the prices of Oil remaining high and essentially the ability to blackmail (blackgoldmail?) Anyone else when questioned about their methods/acts.
If they ever go to war, they would bring Spain, Italy, Greece, the Croatian puppet... and i already forgot who else is with them.
They are not in for a good time
In our world oil exporting countries are usually strong not weak even if they are brittle. You can keep a completely unsustainable system going for a long time with just oil (cough Saudi Arabia cough) and as @Casko says South France actually controls 3/4 of mainland France as well so their economy must be more diverse than the petrostates that nonetheless survive in our world
I agree that Sand France would lose in a direct confrontation with Germany. I’m not sure how that would actually happen though if it hasn’t happened already.
But in another scenario I don’t think north France could survive if Germany went all Gorbachev and started pulling the the plug on some of its puppets. Sand France despite other weaknesses is at least self sustaining.
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There is no way North France survives if Germany cuts it loose. The government is very obviously a corrupt puppet. The economy is geared towards extraction of resources to Germany and its allies, with little left over for native French. The Hohenzollern monarchy is a German power play and vanity project designed to anger and humiliate the French, so it is no surprise the French hate it (a slightly better option might have been to install the Bourbons, as they are French, but they'd still be hated because they're still German puppets). I think the East Germany parallel better applies to North France, even though it's not a perfect match. At least East Germany had a widespread and extremely effective secret police and intelligence service which efficiently suppressed dissent. Add all of this up and we see North France is an unstable regime surviving only because of German military and economic support.
As soon as Nationalist France makes its intentions clear, North France would begin splintering. There is an event chain in DH for Nationalist France to support Maquis fighters in overthrowing the German puppet government. Something similar might happen here, but it would be even more effective. I doubt Nationalist France would wait until the war begins to start supporting the Maquis. It would've started building up the networks and grassroots organizations as soon as the Syndicalist War ended and the new borders were drawn. So the Maquis now have had at least thirty years to prepare. And native French sentiment in the north remains firmly opposed to Germany even without the Maquis riling things up. Once they hear the Nationalists are coming to liberate them, they'll ditch the puppet government in droves. Those who remain are the Germans, their puppets, and the few true believers they still have. North France's economy is not designed for a war, only for "economic reparations" to Germany. It will collapse soon, and I doubt Germany would spend the money needed to keep it afloat when it would be better spent on defenses and more weapons. North France will fall extremely quickly due to the unpopularity of the puppet regime, the fragile economy, and its relatively small size compared to the Nationalists. A Nationalist victory is basically ensured within a year at most. At that point, Germany will want to cut its losses. Seeing North France as a glorified buffer for the heartland at best and a liability at worst, it would probably accept its loss in exchange for the Nationalists making some key concessions. These could range from renouncing claims on Alsace-Lorraine (Germany might cede Nancy and the other border territories taken after WWI in exchange), as one DH event chain option allows, to leaving the Entente and declaring neutrality (or even joining the Reichspakt/Mitteleuropa, although that would be extremely unlikely), as another event option proposes, to swapping some minor colonies with Germany, or to simply sign some economic agreements and trade deals which might end up benefiting the French.
As soon as Nationalist France makes its intentions clear, North France would begin splintering. There is an event chain in DH for Nationalist France to support Maquis fighters in overthrowing the German puppet government. Something similar might happen here, but it would be even more effective. I doubt Nationalist France would wait until the war begins to start supporting the Maquis. It would've started building up the networks and grassroots organizations as soon as the Syndicalist War ended and the new borders were drawn. So the Maquis now have had at least thirty years to prepare. And native French sentiment in the north remains firmly opposed to Germany even without the Maquis riling things up. Once they hear the Nationalists are coming to liberate them, they'll ditch the puppet government in droves. Those who remain are the Germans, their puppets, and the few true believers they still have. North France's economy is not designed for a war, only for "economic reparations" to Germany. It will collapse soon, and I doubt Germany would spend the money needed to keep it afloat when it would be better spent on defenses and more weapons. North France will fall extremely quickly due to the unpopularity of the puppet regime, the fragile economy, and its relatively small size compared to the Nationalists. A Nationalist victory is basically ensured within a year at most. At that point, Germany will want to cut its losses. Seeing North France as a glorified buffer for the heartland at best and a liability at worst, it would probably accept its loss in exchange for the Nationalists making some key concessions. These could range from renouncing claims on Alsace-Lorraine (Germany might cede Nancy and the other border territories taken after WWI in exchange), as one DH event chain option allows, to leaving the Entente and declaring neutrality (or even joining the Reichspakt/Mitteleuropa, although that would be extremely unlikely), as another event option proposes, to swapping some minor colonies with Germany, or to simply sign some economic agreements and trade deals which might end up benefiting the French.
I think a war between between the Frances would end quickly with a Southern victory. Germany knows it could kick their teeth in but why, when they could just deal with Sand France afterwards instead of mantaining what is obviously a unpopular government
A big long term problem for Germany (as it is today in our world) is Europe’s reliance on oil and particularly gas which comes from Russia and North Africa. Therefore it has two potential rivals who can turn off the lights in Europe whenever they want and so chaos between Germany and it’s puppets
in a way, Germans have a case of "Cursed if you do, Cursed if you don't" as with Imp-French there's the natural tension between them, and dealing with them is no doubt a massive pain diplomatically as the French have vested interest to try to undermine Germans, and to push for total reclamation of Northern parts of the France. On other, Russia is no doubt still quite sore about being economically abused by German corporations, so Russians no doubt are quite distrustful and protective of its recovering industry and economy from the hungry Germans that its population and politicians alike see, atleast partly, to be in such a bad state exactly because Germans in the first place. If this is just scapegoating or not is other matter entirely, however the AAR itself implies that the reason Russian economy was in the tank and in such a sorry state for so long was specifically due to German Corporations going all out with profit making at the expense of the Russians. And it made such a quick recovery was thanks to Entente powers consolidating their return to Europe and opening more trade and competition in Russia as well.
Bah, Russia is a lethargic nation of softies in this TL. A nation of mediocre shopkeepers and pleasure seekers.
Sand France on the other hand is a vicious little dog with sharp teeth even if they don't actually carry a lot of weight any more. I get the feeling that if they were to reunite France, they would have big trouble actually integrating the "lost" population of metropolitan France beyond a shallow relation of implied and expected subservience. Sand France is not a participatory democracy at all, it's a military junta with a monarchy tacked on for appearances. The generals and the the cliques of power brokers in Algiers are likely paranoid autocrats like the Ba'athists of OTL, grand standers in public but utterly exclusive and non negotiating with the general population. They try to rule Arabs like Arab kings and sheiks and in doing so are turning the ethnic French pied noirs into Arabs as well, foregoing most of what we think of as "European" attitudes - critical thinking, rationality, gender equality, enlightenment values, and so on. If these orientalized despots were to make themselves lords over Northern France they would meet the locals with deep distrust and probably drift very quickly into totalitarian methods of control, surveillance and collective punishment. A nightmare. Let's hope Mitteleuropa holds fast on their defense of all that is good and holy! Hail Kaiser Friedrich and hail King Francois! Hail! Hail!
I mean, thats just how Juntas ARE, no matter if lead by arabs or south americans or whatever so the whole pseudo racisty angle is a bit much but this post is pmuch what a conservative at the time would think soooo
If "having a murderous army loyal to you" is stability, then yeah, south south france is indeed stable, compared to the north that has just a small army of its own (if it isnt part of the german army as a whole anyway).
Are you guys sure you're not confusing Antonine's French Empire with the CA version?
Since the conversation is on North France, I remember a while back that there was actually a similar conversation about the country and its place in Mittleuropa. I figure it might be appropriate to repost my older post on that topic below, since it collected the most recent and basically only snapshot into the actual inner workings of North France that we have gotten in the AAR.
From reading back, it really doesn’t seem that Germany’s relationship with North France is as harsh as people might assume. It actually feels like initially it was, but then narrativly it was meant to be an intentional decision by Germany in the 1940s to shift from treating France harshly, into just treating it as another Western client state. So the state is being treated like Flanders-Wallonia, the Netherlands, or Denmark.
Politically, we don’t really know the situation in North France, but it doesn’t feel like they are any different from the rest of the German Western European system. It seems like it’s just the same as those other aforementioned Western European Mittleuropan German puppet states. So it probably is legitimately “democratic”. It’s just that those legitimately democraticly elected leaders basically have to follow German direction on everything actually meaningful economically and internationally. Meaning they are legitimate democracies, but those results only have an effect on some limited internal affairs. That still would be more democratic than the military junta in the South. But because of their integration in Mittleuropa (even with a more friendly relationship with Germany and a more legitimatly democratic government), it still would probably be seen as just fundamentally less legitimate.
I’d imagine that concern over the weakened legitimacy of the Western European governments would even be an issue in those other nations as well. I remember it was mentioned as an issue with Denmark, that helped drive further integration between the Nordic nations.
And that was with a circumstance where there wasn’t any sort of “alternative representative” other than the Mittleuropan governments. So North France is probably just treated like any other German client in the West. Which, just like those other states, would help their legitimacy in terms of relations to Germany (not overly harsh or focused on humiliation or vengeance), and their democracy (they are legitimately democratic over the limited things they are allowed to influence themselves). But also like those other states, those gains are almost certainly hampered by the inherent loss of legitimacy being “bound” to Mittleuropa brings to any government (even those without any other claimants for comparison).
From reading back, it really doesn’t seem that Germany’s relationship with North France is as harsh as people might assume. It actually feels like initially it was, but then narrativly it was meant to be an intentional decision by Germany in the 1940s to shift from treating France harshly, into just treating it as another Western client state. So the state is being treated like Flanders-Wallonia, the Netherlands, or Denmark.
Politically, we don’t really know the situation in North France, but it doesn’t feel like they are any different from the rest of the German Western European system. It seems like it’s just the same as those other aforementioned Western European Mittleuropan German puppet states. So it probably is legitimately “democratic”. It’s just that those legitimately democraticly elected leaders basically have to follow German direction on everything actually meaningful economically and internationally. Meaning they are legitimate democracies, but those results only have an effect on some limited internal affairs. That still would be more democratic than the military junta in the South. But because of their integration in Mittleuropa (even with a more friendly relationship with Germany and a more legitimatly democratic government), it still would probably be seen as just fundamentally less legitimate.
I’d imagine that concern over the weakened legitimacy of the Western European governments would even be an issue in those other nations as well. I remember it was mentioned as an issue with Denmark, that helped drive further integration between the Nordic nations.
For many Nordic observers, this was just the latest proof that the world was an increasingly dangerous and cutthroat place for their isolated democracies. Neutral Denmark’s invasion by the Union of Britain in 1940, and subsequent incorporation into Mitteleuropa upon German liberation, had been a salutary lesson to the other Nordic powers in their own vulnerability. In 1944, Norway had been drawn into great power politics over the Icelandic Succession Affair, and found it an uncomfortable position. The Norwegians had flirted with Canada, and the Swedes with Germany, but both campaigns ended after the realization that any such action was
fundamentally intolerable to the other bloc.
German troops in Copenhagen, c.1941. Germany liberated Denmark from occupation by the UoB, but had bound the country to the Mitteleuropan system.
With global tensions rising, it was clear in the Nordic capitals that it was no longer sufficient to merely aspire to isolation and good relations with all sides to guarantee their security.
And that was with a circumstance where there wasn’t any sort of “alternative representative” other than the Mittleuropan governments. So North France is probably just treated like any other German client in the West. Which, just like those other states, would help their legitimacy in terms of relations to Germany (not overly harsh or focused on humiliation or vengeance), and their democracy (they are legitimately democratic over the limited things they are allowed to influence themselves). But also like those other states, those gains are almost certainly hampered by the inherent loss of legitimacy being “bound” to Mittleuropa brings to any government (even those without any other claimants for comparison).
Given this conversation about how integrated North France is, I think it’s appropriate to post this most recent quote from The New Regime update about France within Germany’s sphere:
The Reichsmarkt had its profoundest effect on North France. Whereas Chancellors von Neurath and von Papen had deliberately sought to impoverish the French state, both in revenge for Commune aggression and as a strategic guarantee against French revival, von Hassell regarded this as unsustainable. Not only was an unproductive North France a drag on Mitteleuropa as a whole, but North French unhappiness would only feed insurgency, be it Syndicalist holdouts or longing for reunification with the South and Napoleon. Changing track, von Hassel reversed Germany’s official policy against rehabilitating the North French economy. The seeds for revival were already there; France, after all, had a skilled workforce and high technological level, it merely require capital for reconstruction and reinvestment. Selling his policy on the basis that Germany was re-developing North France as a captive trade partner, von Hassell succeeded in securing billions of marks in loans to the North French from the Reichstag, albeit on the understanding that every pfenning would have to be repaid. The Commune’s worthless franc populaire (FP) was abolished, replaced by a new Reichsfranc (RF) on the basis of 1 RF equalling 1 franc populaire (FP) for essential transactions such as rent and wages, but 1 RF equaling 10 FC for other debts and balances. This had the effect of wiping out almost all debt and savings, returning the North French economy to a state of ‘zero’. Prices were decontrolled, and workers’ Commune-era wages were slashed while working hours increased. Most French, however, were merely glad to be back at work after lean years, and slowly the real economy began to grow as German loans brought factories and businesses back into productivity. As a symbolic gesture, von Hassell ensured money was made available for the reconstruction of Paris, which until this point had been a piece-meal effort. King François appointed the Franco-Swiss architect Le Corbusier to oversee the effort, and with work beginning on Le Corbusier’s vision of a grand, brutalist capital for a modern, post-war state, François returned the capital from Dieppe. Meanwhile, the southern border was increasingly fortified. Travel across the frontier was forbidden. Ostensibly, this was to prevent the flow of black market goods from the South, but it was also a thinly veiled message to the Imperial French and their aspirations for reunification. La Brèche Française, as it became called, was an enduring symbol of national disunity.
A view of Paris from the Champ de Kaiser Guillaume II following Le Corbusier's reconstruction. With 1/3 of the pre-war city destroyed, and almost the entirety of its center, Paris became a showcase for modern urban planning.
So the situation in France didn’t really seem that dire at the time. It didn’t feel like the KoF was about to fall apart like @Casko says, mostly since they’d sort of become accustom to post-war poverty. This was in 1946/1947, so that was 15 years ago now in the narrative. The KoF presumably must be in better condition and more integrated by now. It also mentions the EoF ambitions of reunification, which were present at least at that early stage. Although given that we haven’t really seen that factor appear, it possible that it hasn’t really been that prominent in their mindset (at least so far). The language used also implies that the division of the nation, representing the division of the world into power blocks, is also present in general culture like in our world, but obviously not as prominent as it was in OTL. I think the main difference is our world had a full on Cold War, while this world recognized a Cold War as possiblilty, and actively went out of its way to avoid the situation. We’ve kind of gotten the impression from other updates that people in the Entente recognize that a Cold War with Germany was avoided, and are thankful for it. So it’s possible the concern of starting one is what is keeping the EoF in line in the mainland (kind of like how the building of nuclear weapons was stopped for the same reason).
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