The "Big 3" close in -- what's my next move?

[Rituro]

My latest EU4 playthrough as Bharat (started as Vijayanagar, reformed before getting the Bahmanis achievement, stupid me) survived its first big challenge -- I was dragged into a war against Ming and won(!) against vastly superior manpower thanks to better tech and canny terrain use.

That was about a decade ago. Now, Ming are full power, equal tech, angrier and -- even worse -- they're not alone. The Russians are about to conquer the last of the steppe nomads. The Ottoman Empire has gobbled up nearly all the buffer states between them and me.

So, what should I do now? Is there a way for me to survive against three massive powers from different religions? I'm not looking for a world conquest solution on this playthrough; I just want to survive to 1821 and take as much of modern-day India as possible.

I'll post screenshots to better illustrate my situation later tonight. For now, here are some details:

• Territory stretches from Maldives/Sri Lanka in the south up to the Himalayas in the north, from Navanagar in the west to Katmandu in the east.
• Jharkand is my march, serving as my eastern buffer state and feeding ground for ex-Bengal territory. They can now field a 20k army and ably support my armies.
• Of the original Indian subcontinent powers, only Delhi remains to my north, though I've taken their capital (twice) and am slowly chipping off territory. Russia is now breathing down their neck, which might be why the Ottomans offered Delhi an alliance.
• Sind, my on-again, off-again ally and final western buffer state, is leisurely picking off Khorasan when not being smacked around by me, all while the Ottomans look on.
• Beyond Jharkand lies a shrinking Pegu, the former ally that dragged me into a punitive defensive war against Ming (nice work angering that coalition, Pegu). Around them are the scattered provinces of unconquered Manchu tributaries and, of course, Ming, who lords over a reinforced Ayutthaya and has been, ah, "helping" other Indochinese countries reconquer territory held by Pegu.
• Great Britain and its colonies keep fabricating claims on me, so I assume they're either in the Indian Ocean or Indonesia somewhere. (I'm not interested in colonizing or exploring, so a decent amount of terra incognita remains.)
  
• I moved my capital to Goa earlier in the game to get a better defensive terrain bonus for my early wars, automatically making it my main trade node as well. I have merchants steering trade there via Ceylon, Bengal and Malacca.

Any thoughts? Should I make the first move? Do I risk angering the Ottomans by attacking Delhi? Do I turtle and build barracks/regimental camps galore in order to stockpile manpower?

 

[gia257]

easiest solution is to tribute ming and get the ottomans or russians (whoever will lose) to declare on you

 

[GurenGaaze]

Him being as strong as he are to compete with Ming, even making them really angry - Ming will not accept it as it's not of strategic interest? Thus not being able to become a tributary? Don't really know too much about the tributary as I've played mostly in Europe, other than that I actually played Ming.

 

[Horn and Ivory]

Hah, I've played this game! (Though I started as Nepal, so I was pretty Prussia-y by that point.)

Don't bend the knee to the Ming, have you no pride!

- What year is it?
- Do you have the Mandate of Heaven DLC turned on? This will make quite a difference to your strategy. Is there any way you can see that you might be able to force a Mingsplosion?
- Can you see any great powers who might want to support you against your enemies, like the PLC?

My first instinct is to say that the properly scary situation will be when two of the big three ally, and if you keep growing and antagonising them that will happen. You'll still hopefully be able to beat them (India is rich), but it'll be a lot harder. You need to wreck one of them before that happens. The Ottomans are insanely hardy, so it'll probably have to be Ming or Russia. Both of these can often be taken down a serious notch by standing on them until they're covered in rebels, especially if there are other nations who will also be tempted to invade them if they're weak enough.

 

[CoolSpin]

I read the word screenshot and smiled gloriously, then there were none - FeelsBadSadMan

 

[Rituro]

I read the word screenshot and smiled gloriously, then there were none - FeelsBadSadMan

It turns out somebody decided sleep after a long day at work was more important. What a loser, am I right? *cough*

Anyway! Screenshots! Hopefully this helps answer your questions, @Horn and Ivory --



The world and immediate environs around Bharat. Afghanistan was released in a peace deal with Sind following the annexation of Khorasan and are currently on the rampage -- they are currently occupying territory, not the Ottomans. I also appear to have neglected Tirhut, a vassal of mine (for the time being; they'll be annexed soon enough).

So upon loading this Ironman save file, I realize now why I immediately stopped playing: this happened...

Well, at least I have Russia in my corner. Yeesh.

Anyway, here are my diplomatic and economic overviews...



..and, of course, the all-important ledger.

 

[PhoenixG]

The thing I can say is, you got WAY too many forts. Build the forts only at the border. it save you lots of ducats and able get more units in place for that. Also what are your ideas?

I think Russia could be a good ally if you can ally him.

 

[Rituro]

The thing I can say is, you got WAY too many forts. Build the forts only at the border. it save you lots of ducats and able get more units in place for that. Also what are your ideas?

I think Russia could be a good ally if you can ally him.

Good point about the forts. And yes, considering Russia is also on my side in this independence war, they might be my best bet, especially if we're both rivaling Ming once all is said and done.

My ideas, IIRC, are Economic (ADM), Trade (DIP) and Quality (MIL).

 

[gia257]

Good point about the forts. And yes, considering Russia is also on my side in this independence war, they might be my best bet, especially if we're both rivaling Ming once all is said and done.

My ideas, IIRC, are Economic (ADM), Trade (DIP) and Quality (MIL).

only quality is good there outside of RPing, at least you can take loans

 

[PhoenixG]

only quality is good there outside of RPing, at least you can take loans

He got the best admin policy with eco-quality.

 

[Rituro]

only quality is good there outside of RPing, at least you can take loans

He got the best admin policy with eco-quality.

Correction on ideas: Economic, Trade and Offensive all maxed out. Quality and Influence each with one idea taken.

 

[Horn and Ivory]

You've got some potential problems there. Ottoblob in Persia is dangerous. But you've also done a pretty good job of uniting the Indian heartland, and it's only 1682! You can take down all these guys.

For immediate action:
- You're in a war with Russia and Ming, so they can't war you/war you again. Are their any small Russian or Ming allies or such it would benefit you to snipe?
- Whenever you engage the Ming you'll want a full back row of artillery - not just a full set of units but a full set of full-strength units. Do you have as many as you're going to need?
- Russia and the Ming fighting makes this a good chance to attack the Ming in force. Be willing to take loans and so on. Don't be shy about it. You've taken two income-generator idea groups so milk them.

Strategic things:
- I'm assuming here that you're aiming to beat all three of the 'big three' in ways that are at least symbolically important. I encourage this. I would consider it a worthy goal.
- Consider diplovassalising and making a march of Afghanistan, and reconquering its cores. Their ideas and the harshness of their homeland make them a fantastic frontier state and having a speedbump with teeth in between you and the Ottomans will help make you safer from unexpected attack.
- When you border the Ming you'll be able to damage their Mandate by being a big non-tributary. Prioritise getting a border that connects the Ming to your capital: I think you have an easy route though Tibet? Then, when you can, invade. Remember, devastation decreases Mandate. Unrest increases devastation. Loss of prosperity decreases Mandate gain. And all talk about Mandate aside, standing on the Ming until they're covered from head to toe in rebels can cripple them for decades. If this war goes well it could give you an opening for a more full-scale invasion. Consider it. You can support a lot of debt, and you have more manpower stored up than the Ming. I bet you can beat them if you pick your timing and you go all-out. You've got the guns, you've got the men, you've got the money too.
- For allies abroad:Any of Austria, France, Scandinavia or Brandenburg could give you an edge against the Russians. Can you ally any of them before you get into a fight with Russia? Could you if you rivalled Russia? If you're considering getting into a fight with the Ottomans, can you ally Ethiopia? They look like they're doing pretty well for themselves. Allies in your immediate vicinity are a waste of time at this point. Subjugate near, ally far.
- Get privateering as soon as you can, if you have the naval forcelimit for it. The Beijing node is the most obvious target. A big fleet of privateers with both make you money and drain it out of your enemy.
- Once you've got through Delhi (and consider snaking your way up to do that rather than having neat borders), you can probably cut Russia in two with one war. That will weaken them massively.
- Consider expanding into the Spice Islands once you have Imperialism. Aren't there some Hindus down there that should be under the banner of Greater Bharat?

 

[frolix42]

View attachment 297489

That Bharat flag with the green stripe is disgustingly anachronistic.

 

[Dell19]

I think Russia could be a good ally if you can ally him.

My initial reaction to the thread title was why not ally one of them so yeah Russia look like the best bet as they appear to be doing well and it doesn't look like you'll border each other any time soon. With them on your side it seems likely that you would be able to crush Delhi + Ottomans although it might be a lengthy fight. If allying one of the three is not an option then I would be looking to pick up one of the strongest European nations (France or Austria) to discourage the AI from declaring war.

Out of interest who are the Ottomans allied to and is it likely that they will be attacked from the west? It looks like they fought someone recently judging by their manpower. If the Ottomans are likely to build their armies back up to 280k then I would be wary of allying Ethiopia and then getting a defensive call to arms.

 

[gia257]

He got the best admin policy with eco-quality.

dont think eco and 5 discipline beat a million mercs and a much higher chance of discipline advisor

 

[Rituro]

Excellent ideas and thoughts, everyone. Thank you so much! I'll play out this independence war and see where things go.

Out of interest who are the Ottomans allied to and is it likely that they will be attacked from the west? It looks like they fought someone recently judging by their manpower. If the Ottomans are likely to build their armies back up to 280k then I would be wary of allying Ethiopia and then getting a defensive call to arms.

The Ottomans' only ally is Cyprus, who they also have a royal marriage with. Ottomans are guaranteeing Ragusa, Teutonic Order and Delhi, warning Lithuania, Poland, Delhi, Sing and Hormuz, and rivaled with Russia, Austria and France. They have 9.5 years remaining on a truce with Russia, so there's your likely war enemy.

 

[PhoenixG]

well there you go. The rival of your rival is your ally.

 

[Rituro]

well there you go. The rival of your rival is your ally.

Indeed. I'll have to check in with Russia.

UPDATE: As per @Horn and Ivory, Afghanistan is now a march after they took a considerable bite out of Sind. I took a risk and converted them to Hinduism; Liberty desire is hovering around 82%, slowly ticking down.

The independence war went surprisingly well. Yarkand not only won their freedom but took Chagtai to the cleaners, ripping out large chunks of land for themselves. Delhi managed to sneak a province, though, which I'm mildly miffed about. Interestingly, the war ended about four months after Ming white-peaced(!) out. (I guess shuttling their only decent 2* general back and forth got tiresome.) Net result: both Russia AND Ming were drained to no manpower.

With that in my back pocket, I looked west. Ottoman manpower is... not recovering? Hey, is that a flame...? Oh, look at that, Poland and Austria wanted words and have occupied the Balkans! And what's that, my brand new march has a core under Ottoman occupation?

And so the reconquest begins.

Hormuz, for some reason, jumped into defend the Ottomans and were summarily smacked around. I took some money, reparations and naval basing rights, since I don't really want to hold that territory longer than I had to. At any rate, my troops are now causing grief on the Arabian peninsula as a front to try and allow the Afghans to sneak north and take back their territory. Well, once they deal with what feels like an endless stream of rebels, that is. (Maybe force-conversion wasn't the best move...)

Interestingly, the Ottomans are posting large numbers of troops near me and are practically ignoring the Polish-Austrian hordes. Have I miscalculated this? Hopefully not; I've already stack-wiped two small, caught-out defensive armies (Mil Tech 22 vs 21!) as I attempt to, uh, let's call it "the restoration of Oman", yeah, that's the ticket. Totally not a distraction. Nope.

 

[PhoenixG]

You'll do fine, just advance slowly.

 

[viale]

Good work at jumping them when their back is turned, only suckers fight fair.

Now you need to keep the war going, let their war exhaustion help you win, kill any stacks you can and advance slowly. This is really hard actually, not getting greedy and going for too many sieges at once, because you will need all your guys to smack the Otto's stacks around. If his armies are hovering around his front with you then Poland Austria should have free reign at, eventually reaching Constantinople.

Here's a few things I would consider doing during this war if was in your situation:
1. Keep tabs on the the Polish Austrian Front
2. keep tabs on the Russo-Ottoman truce timer
3. try to remember the year you and Ming will end your truce
4. watch the army ledger like a hawk. Both the Otto's army strength but also Poland and Austrias
5. Conserve your manpower
6. Improve relations with Russia(you've already shared a war against Ming) this is to prevent them from attacking you.
7. think of ways you can raise prestige, and don't be shy about firing your military advisor if he doesn't give you manpower, morale or discipline
8. be wary of getting too much war exhaustion - this is gonna be a long war
9. be flexible in your wargoals and be prepared to amend them as the war goes on(for good or for worse)
10. remember the Ming truce - I think this is really important in your setup since you've already been at war, and you are the weaker of his two biggest competitors. If possible think of that truce ending as the point where you plan your peace negotiations with the Otto's. Mind you, this is just as a precaution if the Ming should stab you in the back as your armies are all over Persia/Iraq.

Again this is just some things I would monitor closely if in your situation.