about my balkans qualifications,i m from croatia,so i suppose i know a little situation...anyway,last few posts werent too bad...
as it is now (in my opinion):
FYROM would be a good point to start a war.Kosovo less likely with peacekeepers on it. Note that albanians today are 90% of kosovo population.in a year or so they will have a referendum for independance.nobody can deny them to join albania later if they want.
(although,i even heard theories that they would never join albania,because albania is much much porrer than kosovars (people from kosovo) and therefore they will establish another albanian state,capital prishtina;they will probably ally and cooperate with albania but not unite)
lets say for game purposes we suppose they will unite. Then,albanians in FYROM want to join new great albania.Macedonians,helped by Bulgarians (military aid;they aided them in last conflict) fight to preserve theirs country. Serbs and Montenegrins join in hope of recapturing Kosovo and ending Albanian threat once for all. (note : albanians are a serious problem even for montenegro. They are now about 6-8% of countrys population.if they continue to have natality like this...and remember,60 years ago serbs were about 60% of kosovo inhabitans)
at that point we would need to destabilize bosnia,(not to hard task,ahahah,country is de facto protectorate of international community,three nations all the time unite 2 vs 1 and then shift sides on all issues,from war pensions - 3 armies fought against each other for 4 years and now they all get pensions from the SAME state- to enviromental issues,not to menton languages,tv,etc)
if the war is to expand further. (beyond albanian vs. neighbours war)
NOTE : serbia wouldnt go in war against croatia directly,or vice cersa,in ANY way! nations are too shaterred,still recovering! at the present time relatons are slowly but constantly improwing their relations! although many people in both countries are indoctrinated still,many young people dont gove a damn about the war...only a total chaos could throw countries again in the war,that would be a 4th time in last 90 years!!
but,what is very imaginable,is cro and ser fighting indirectly - by supporting their offsest in bosnia. distribution should be like - serbs controlling banja luka,muslims (at the BEGGINING allied with bosnian croats) sarajevo,and croats mostar. Serbs would tend to connect over sarajevo,thus achieving their war plan of capturing 66% of bosnia, Muslims to expell another 2 sides from all of bosnia. At first croats would be satisfied to unite mostar county with croatia,but later (look at the geography) nationalism would rise remembering oldest croatian lands - in bosnia /these are or are not my opinions,i m only giving an idea based under possible (due to already seen circumstances) events/ so they would want to conquer western bosnia - banja luka in the game. As both croats and muslims see serbs as coquerors and genocidal in latest war,they would be cordial.BUT,as both serbs and croats see muslims as turkish intruders to theirs ancient lands,side shifting could be possible. only muslims and serbs should never be allied.
so croatia and serbia fighting indirectly could be possible,but not officialy and in their home countries.there is simply no reasons - minorities are assimilated/expelled in amount that they do not pose a threat to county they live in.some serbs are returning here(croatia).and a year ago in norther serbian province,vojvodina (with tradtionally strong hungarian and croatian minorities) hungarian and croatian were made second and third official languages.probably for 20 or 30 years war woudlnt be forgotten,but a new one is very not likely.The only reason could be international hate - but in the future we shall be both parts of a europe.
so i think we should concentrate on albania/kosovo/fyrom conflicts,eventual escalation in bosnia (possible).
and as someone rightfully pointed out,alliances idea was stupid.in balkans it always was everybody for themselves,against all each nations....
