WOW! The Axis won! To be honest, I didn't realy expect this outcome. The reasons were simple: manpower. My manpower as Germany was (as is often the case) ridiculously low. At the lowest point I had 1 manpower left (yes, one). Fortunately for me, in 1944 I got the Mass Combat minister (Guderian as chief of staff), who together with the Man of the People minister gave me over 70 MP per month, while still having around 1100 IC and being able to spend around 700 on making units. But still, with large Soviet attacks on the east front plus the MP cost of reenforcing my huge airforce usually cost me around 70 MP per month. So basically, the only new stuff I could afford to build was more aircraft (I wanted to make more mech or some inf-AT, but that was a no-no).
The low MP was also partly due to heavier losses then expected during the campaign in France. Remember, a 39 scenario, so my land tech (especially tanks) wasn't realy good. Also, during the Battle for London (which is urban terrain) I took rather hefty MP losses.
The above scenario was actually identified before hand by the German high command, meaning that the focus of research and unit building would be on low-MP items like submarines and air. The only non-sub, non-air units I built (besides a few TP) were mech-A (think i made a total of 60). Never any infantry or mountain divs or similar. I did also go very high-tech in these fields. For example, I have used my advanced interceptors (range 1000 km, can thus rebase 3000 km in one single move) for almost 2 years. With the full air doc and the missle tech (air-to-air missiles give a huge bonus) they had 16 in air attack with 105 org.
Despite this overwhelming air power, I struggled to keep the Russians at bay. Besides the well-planned action near Crimea, I never actually succeded in crossing the Dniepr river, which should be considered a very weak Barbarossa. The Russians, on the other hand, managed to gain ground (although briefly) into both Königsberg and Romania.
As mentioned before I managed to encircle and destroy large Soviet forces during three separate combat phases (Middle-east, Romania and Crimea), totally some 100 Soviet divisions (including 18 or 24 tank divs and the entire Soviet motorized infantry corps). My mechs in China also helped to encirlce and kill 10 Soviet divisions. In all around 120 Soviet divisions were killed.
As Germany I did not make any bigger mistakes on land (besides attacking once at end of April, while still frozen = HUGE MP losses). I did however loose around 10-15 infantry divisions that were completely wiped out during combat against numerically superior Soviet forces.
In the air however, I managed to loose a LOT of aircraft. I lost one stack of basic interceptors that were standing on an unguarded beach (bad idea!), and also 24 or 30 naval bombers total, all of them vs the USA. I did however manage to completely destroy well over 100 enemy air divisions.
In all, this was one of my most enjoyable MP HoI games ever, mainly due to the competent Soviet player and my two excellent allies (Juv and Aldo). It was also my longest campaign so far, mid 1944, and still not decided.
To be honest, if the game had continued I think the Axis would have won, since we now had regained China, destroyed a large number of Soviet divisions, and the fact that in 3 months I would have completed the first part of my advanced strategic bomber program (range: 1500 km). This could easily target the backbone of the Soviet industry, were there is no AA and no fighters, so basically I could have bombed the Soviets helplessly for 4 months at least. Plus we got Sweden into the Axis! It was only a matter of time until the proud Swedish Army would be parading in the Red Square....