Terrain attrition not functioning as indicated

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CyberSpyder

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I've had a sneaking suspicion of this issue for a while, but I finally put it to a test, sending ten units of Italian infantry marching around in the mountains for the first six months of 1937 with no maintenance company, the first-level maintenance company, and a cheated-in top-level maintenance company. Combined, they had a total of 6000 infantry equipment, 720 artillery, and (for the latter two) 250 support equipment.

The results were as follows:
Equipment (reliability, claimed loss % chance)Total lost in six monthsLoss as percentage of full complement
No maintenance company
Infantry Equipment (90% reliability, 24% loss chance)
4493​
75%​
Artillery (80% reliability, 5.7% loss chance)
867​
120%​
1936 maintenance company attached
Infantry equipment (94.5% reliability, 12% loss chance)
2086​
35%​
Artillery (84% reliability, 4.6% loss chance)
873​
121%​
Support equipment (84% reliability, 1.6% loss chance)
818​
327%​
1945 maintenance company attached
Infantry equipment (108% reliability, 0% loss chance)
888​
15%​
Artillery (96% reliability, 1.1% loss chance)
856​
118%​
Support equipment (96% reliability, 0.4% loss chance)
852​
342%​

Two things are immediately obvious: First, maintenance companies are providing no benefit to artillery or support equipment; from my anecdotal observations with other equipment types, this extends to a number of other items as well, especially tank variations.

Secondly, although the reported chance of equipment loss appears to be dependent on the AMOUNT of that equipment used by a unit, the actual loss does not have that dependency, at least not in any straightforward way.

...in fact, comparing this now against the wiki page on attrition and equipment loss, which is more detailed than I saw it last, appears to make it fairly clear what is happening; there is in fact a minimum attrition rate regardless of reliability or complement size, leading to vastly greater rates of loss than reported for equipment that is used in relatively small numbers.

This hardly seems desirable.
 
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brainiac1530

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Dec 21, 2013
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The losses being too high for artillery and support equipment is due to a clamping function in the calculation. Small amounts of equipment (per division) are hit by this pretty badly, effectively rendering reliability irrelevant for them.
{\displaystyle {\text{equipment lost per hour}}=0.5\cdot {\text{attrition}}\cdot P({\text{loss}})\cdot \max\{1,{\text{number of equipment}}\cdot P({\text{per type loss}})\cdot (1-{\text{reliability}})\}}


The gist of this is that the maintenance companies might do something meaningful for a bigger division with artillery battalions, but doing it for support artillery alone is a waste, not only failing to achieve the desired effect, but costing you lots of lost support equipment besides.
 
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CyberSpyder

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Yep, that's what I was referring to in the second-to-last line. Crazy design there - seems vastly more sensible to put the 'number of equipment' term outside the max function.
 
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Shaka of Carthage

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Aren't there define values that effect attrition? Where those taken into account?
 

CyberSpyder

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There are, but they wouldn't help here. The problem is that the absolute rate of equipment loss is capped to a minimum value which is proportionately extremely high when only a small amount of equipment is in use.

Turning down P(loss) could lower that, but only by proportionately reducing all attrition everywhere.
 
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CyberSpyder

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Posted a bug report. I have essentially no hope that it will actually be addressed, but whatever, I suppose.

Realize now that this is even worse for a case I didn't test - the humble "infantry division with one support artillery brigade." Support artillery has only 12 units, meaning that marching in the mountains would on average destroy 4% of their artillery equipment each and every day regardless of maintenance, or 730% of full complement over six months.

Absolute worst case would be for the super-heavy self-propelled anti-air - with only 4 of them used in a division, the proportional equipment loss would be 30% * attrition a day (i.e., 12% of loadout a day when marching in the mountains), even if you got them to be 100%+ reliable. Can't imagine anyone actually using SHSPAA, but still, crazy.
 
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bitmode

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Yep, that's what I was referring to in the second-to-last line. Crazy design there - seems vastly more sensible to put the 'number of equipment' term outside the max function.
The wiki represents two separate steps as one formula. Primarily for performance reasons, only the first part of the formula, attrition * P(loss) is evaluated every hour. It does not require dealing with the divisions inventory.
Only when this first probability check succeeds does an attrition event occur, the size (in equipment pieces) of which is the max{} term.

So the number of equipment can't trivially be extracted because it would need to be grouped with the probability which is bad for performance.

There is also a smaller problem of numbers precision. The devs love to tie their hands behind their backs by using just three decimal places, meaning the smallest representable number is 0.001 = 0.1%. For infantry equipment, P(per type loss) * (1-attrition) = 0.1 * (1-0.9) = 0.01 already comes dangerously close to a numeric underflow. So terms can not be shifted as easily as in a math formula.

I made a suggestion to replace the max{1,} term with a Bernoulli distribution which could still use some upvotes :cool:

Absolute worst case would be for the super-heavy self-propelled anti-air - with only 4 of them used in a division
The are even worse cases. For simplicity, the wiki speaks of equipment types but attrition is applied to every equipment variant separately. If you have a mix of captured, lend-leased, or upgraded equipment, you'll get more attrition.
Another case are understrength divisions. You may have way less than 12 artillery or 4 SHSPAA present in a damaged division but the minimum of 1 lost still applies.
 
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billcorr

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the first part of the formula, attrition * P(loss) is evaluated every hour.

Is it true that the game "rolls the dice" every hour for each division on the board to check for hourly equipment loss?