Talking Turkey: Alternate History from 1936

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 264: Turkish Cabinet Meeting – Outcomes and Events, Jul-Dec 1947

Background

Prime Minister Peker provided his report to the Milli Şef, President Inönü, after all the submissions had been received and discussions completed following the July Meeting, as it became colloquially known in official circles. He made his recommendations by category, as they had been presented at the Meeting.

The President and the Prime Minister of Turkey in 1947, Inönü and Peker.

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Palestine

The consensus, which Peker supported, was to tread carefully for now and await developments in Palestine for the remainder of 1947, in the likely increasingly violent and chaotic lead-up to the formal end of the UK’s mandate in March 1948.

Palestine: a slippery slope in 1947, if ever there was one.​

But Peker also recommended that Turkey have a contingency plan for a diplomatic (via the LNSC) and if necessary police and military response ready to launch from 1 January 1948. This would be as a contingency only, with events monitored closely.

But he was of the view that it could get to a point that the potential price to be paid – by Turkey in terms of regional influence and stability and on humanitarian grounds – for inaction could equal or outweigh the risks inherent in any intervention. He at least wanted Turkey to have the capacity to intervene as quickly and decisively as possible, should it be deemed necessary.

Planning began as quietly as possible. Hand in hand with any military and policing deployment would have to be the diplomatic strategy to underpin a possible intervention: Turkey would want to stay on the moral high ground, acting through the LNSC and with broad support from the major powers, at least. And have some tangible end point in mind – that would not be an attempted annexation.

---xxx---​

Madagascar

Peker, though not averse to taking a hard line in matters of insurrection if the circumstances demanded it, agreed with the majority view of the Cabinet that some attempt should be made to stabilise the situation in Madagascar, but not – at first, anyway – by an expensive, potentially bloody and diplomatically damaging military crackdown. A broadly integrationist approach would be tried. If that failed, Peker leaned more towards decolonialisation than a hardline military response.

Antananarivo, Madagascar, viewed from the air in 1947.​

Apart from anything else, this was not a core Turkish interest: it was more a colonial headache inherited from the former French masters. Neither Peker nor Inönü wanted to be put in the same basket as the currently discredited Dutch colonial overlords were in Indonesia.

In the first instance, a largely policing and political response would be made. More moderate local leadership would be engaged where possible to determine and if feasible satisfy the needs and aspirations of the population. Limited autonomy and local elections would be offered, within the wider construct of UGNR mechanisms.

This would lead to a proposal for Madagascar to be considered a candidate for admission to the UGNR as a separate and subordinate GNR. Whether this would be enough to defuse things on the ground remained to be seen. In the interim, a large police reinforcement began in an attempt to restore law and order. This was backed up by the deployment of the most experienced counter-insurgency troops in the world: the militia brigade that had put down countless Japanese uprisings in the Dodecanese Islands during GW2!

In time, Turkey would need to decide what should happen with the mish-mash of other colonies inherited from France, but Madagascar might help to provide a model for what to do (or not to do) for those, in coming months.

This combination of political and policy, backed by limited military support if required as a back up, kept a ‘lid’ on the Malagasy Uprising for the rest of 1947, though guerrilla bands continued to operate out of the eastern rainforest regions. The resistance was not united however and there was the complication of inter-communal violence based on old ethnic divisions. Regular clashes occurred, but as yet a wider bloodbath had not broken out [as it did during the harsh OTL French repression of 1947-48, the details of which are perhaps best left out of this narrative but make for very grim reading].

The unrest in Madagascar was gaining international attention during the second half of 1947. The Turks were keen both to keep things under control and not be seen as being on the “right side of history” as they attempted to control the situation without recourse to widespread suppression and escalating violence.​

By the end of 1947, a loose rebel provisional government had been set up in two zones: a provisional government was set up: The head of the northern zone was Victorien Razafindrabe, an ethnic Merina and low-ranking ex-official, whereas Betsileo ex-teacher Michel Radaoroson served as insurgent leader in the south. These were the more militant elements who simply desired ‘unconditional independence now’, while the Turks sought to engage more moderate leaders in their attempts to set up a semi-autonomous local government.

---xxx---​

The Internal Organisation of the UGNR

Peker recommended a staged implementation of the proposals for regional border reforms considered at the July Meeting. In part, this was to ensure that all necessary support could be concentrated in each region as the changes were made in economic, administrative and security areas. Trying to do it all at once would likely strain and possibly break the UGNR’s capacity to effectively implement and absorb some of these wide-sweeping reorganisations.

---xxx---​

Italy

This would be the first phase for implementation. The recommendation was to implement the Diskoerekto Plan’s call for the further breakdown of Italy into six GNRs of roughly equal population size was endorsed. It would see three northern, one central and two southern republics formed.

The ‘Old Italy’ as it had stood since its conquest by Turkey in 1944.

‘Diskoerekto’s Italy’ as proposed in 1947.​

The hinted warnings of the current Governor General of Southern Italy, Vito Corleone, had been noted – but could not be allowed to stand in the way of the desired border reform, it was felt.

It was recommended that he be ‘demarched’ by two prominent S.I.T.H. dignitaries with whom he was well acquainted and whose views and counsel he would hopefully respect and defer to.

‘Ambassador’ Mike Ceylan and the relatively new Head of S.I.T.H., Cennet Kavgaci, would give Vito an offer ‘he couldn’t refuse’, in as polite and respectful but firm a way as possible.

---xxx---​

An Interlude in Naples

They met in Naples in August 1947 – at the local Turkish military HQ for Southern Italy. Mike Ceylan opened proceedings. After the customary exchange of respectful pleasantries, they got down to business – three ‘players’ who knew the game, inside and out, plus a few ‘associates’ on either side.

“Don Vito, how did things ever get so far?” Mike asked rhetorically, referring to the tense exchange of words over the proposed further sub-division of Italy. “I don't know. This tension is so unfortunate, so unnecessary. Ankara is willing to let things go on the way they were before – with just a minor adjustment to the current borders of Southern Italy.”

Mike Ceylan: “How did things ever get so far?”​

“I’m grateful to the Milli Şef for sending you, Ambassador Ceylan, to this meeting," replied Vito. "We all know you as a man of your word. A modest man who will always listen to reason.”

Vito Corleone: “I’m grateful to the Milli Şef for sending you, Ambassador Ceylan, to this meeting.”​

At this point, a discordant note was raised by one of Vito’s ‘associates’ at the meeting. Seemingly on impulse, but no doubt under prior instructions from Corleone, so he was not seen to be uttering these words himself.

“Yes, Don Corleone, he is too modest. The Turks have all the lands of Southern Italy in their pocket and now refuse to leave them with us.”

“Yes, Don Corleone, he is too modest!”​

“When? When did we ever refuse an accommodation?” Mike was getting a little riled now – or at least pretending to do so for effect. One could never tell. “All of you know me here. When did I ever refuse, except this one time? And why? Because we believe having these Italian GNRs too big is gonna destroy us in the years to come. Those pezzonovantes in the centre and north will get too big for their own good. And I believe that.”

“Times have changed,” Cennet added. “It's not like the old days of the war when we could do anything we want. Don Vito, a refusal to cooperate is not the act of a friend. We must share the territory of Italy more widely. All the new GNRs must be allowed to draw the water from the well. Certainly, in regard to any minor loss of territory for Southern Italy, you can present us with a bill for such sacrifices. After all, we are not Communists!” This brought about general polite laughter around the table.

Cennet: “Don Vito, a refusal to cooperate is not the act of a friend.”​

“I hoped that we would come here and reason together,” Mike offered. “And as a reasonable man, I'm willing to do whatever is necessary to find a peaceful solution to these problems.”

“Then we are agreed,” said Vito. “The reorganisation will go ahead, but Ambassador Ceylan will ask Ankara to give us compensation for any lands lost around Naples. And there will be harmony.”

This meant the capital city and primary focus of the new GNR (provisionally named ‘Magna Grecia’ in the Diskoerekto Plan, but possibly to be named something else, as a symbolic concession to Vito and the current Southern Italian GNR government) would move to Sicily.

Though even now Vito’s associate - the 'bad cop' in this scenario - was still pushing for reassurance and hoping to get as much from the bargain as possible. “But we must have a strict assurance from you. As time goes by and the position of Ankara becomes stronger, will they attempt any individual vendetta against us?”

Vito intervened to try to shut things down, as he could see from Mike’s expression that his henchman had gone too far this time. “Look, we are all reasonable men – and women – here. We don't have to give assurances as if we were lawyers.”

But Mike would not let the petulance of this Italian underling go. “You talk about vengeance. Did vengeance bring my brother back to me in Switzerland or prevent Luca Brasi from sleeping with the fishes? There will be no vengeance. But I'm a superstitious man, and if some unlucky accident should befall the head of the new Napolitania GNR – if he should get shot in the head by a police officer, or if he should hang himself in his office, or if he's struck by a bolt of lightning – then I'm going to blame some of the people in this room. And that, I do not forgive. But that aside, let me say that I swear on the soul of Ataturk himself that Turkey will not be the one to break the peace that we have made here today.”

Mike Ceylan: “But I'm a superstitious man …”​

The meeting broke up, with Cennet and Vito exchanging significant glances. The meaning was clear enough: the old relationship between S.I.T.H. and its Mafia allies could continue, but if something went wrong, Cennet would of course side with her country first. Vito and his cronies would have to be careful. Whether they could maintain that kind of self-interested discipline in the longer term was of course a matter for conjecture.

---xxx---​

The Balkans

This was seen as potentially the most problematic and administratively difficult of the proposed regional reforms. Any changes to the current arrangements in the Balkans would be deferred until after the other changes had been made. The proposed changes would be kept confidential for now while other matters were progressed, hopefully to stable and enduring solutions.

---xxx---​

The Middle East

The proposal for uniting the Levant in a single GNR was endorsed and considered a relatively easily picked ‘low hanging fruit’. But with all the current instability in neighbouring Palestine and wider nascent Arab nationalism pervading the region, it was decided to hold off for a while on this non-urgent reform. Certainly until after there was more clarity on the situation in Palestine.

---xxx---​

Iran

The proposed ‘Triple Partition’ of Iran and other UGNR territory in central Asia was widely supported. But, in a similar vein to Syria, there was some disquiet about possible insurrectionism and Iranian religious, political and/or nationalist tensions being provoked by any change – not necessarily because of its nature, but just as an opportunity to cause trouble. It would be enacted when sufficient administrative attention and internal security forces were available to safely implement the changes.

---xxx---​

Aftermath

The rest of 1947 for Turkey internally was occupied with a range of important decisions:

• The implementation of the new sub-division of Italy and the buying off of Vito Corleone’s regime to peacefully accept the loss of Naples and surrounding lands.
• There was also the matter of managing the other various political interests that would now arise within the newly created Italian GNRs. In the north, this meant both leftist and rightist tendencies in the unstable post-Mussolini era.
• How to respond to the American Vandenberg Plan – for Turkey proper, and for GNRs that might think to benefit from post-war financial support, plus ‘advice and guidance’ to be provided to the independent Bucharest Pact countries, such as the Czech Republic, who had already expressed interest in the program.
• Dealing with the Malagasy Uprising.
• Preparing for contingencies in Palestine.

 

[SSmith]

The consensus, which Peker supported, was to tread carefully for now and await developments in Palestine for the remainder of 1947, in the likely increasingly violent and chaotic lead-up to the formal end of the UK’s mandate in March 1948.

But Peker also recommended that Turkey have a contingency plan for a diplomatic (via the LNSC) and if necessary police and military response ready to launch from 1 January 1948. This would be as a contingency only, with events monitored closely.

Fair enough. I realise this is a tricky balancing act for Turkey, not wanting to step in and risk failure, but needing to take a position on an ugly situation that's unfolding right on the UGNR's own doorstep.

A broadly integrationist approach would be tried. If that failed, Peker leaned more towards decolonialisation than a hardline military response.

In time, Turkey would need to decide what should happen with the mish-mash of other colonies inherited from France, but Madagascar might help to provide a model for what to do (or not to do) for those, in coming months.

I think the best thing with Madagascar is to keep the approach under review and be ready to adapt. The good thing about this one is that it's a long way away and the outcome is not terribly important. It is also the only significant insurgency Turkey is currently facing, so it's an excellent test case with which to experiment.

This was backed up by the deployment of the most experienced counter-insurgency troops in the world: the militia brigade that had put down countless Japanese uprisings in the Dodecanese Islands during GW2!

The meeting broke up, with Cennet and Vito exchanging significant glances. The meaning was clear enough: the old relationship between S.I.T.H. and its Mafia allies could continue, but if something went wrong, Cennet would of course side with her country first. Vito and his cronies would have to be careful. Whether they could maintain that kind of self-interested discipline in the longer term was of course a matter for conjecture.

I hope this works. I understand the desire to keep the peace through this diplomatic initiative, but let's hope this doesn't blow up in the Milli Şef's face (maybe literally and without warning...) at some point in the future.

 

[diskoerekto]

Loved the Turkish update! I'm away from a computer until Tuesday when I'll write a proper reply but note that it's an awesome update!

 

[Midnite Duke]

In Palestine, you can only hope that only the foreseen problems arise. But the completely unexpected will probably arise at the most inopportune moments. Balkans will always be a lit match, a quarter-inch wick and a caravan of explosives. Thanks

 

[diskoerekto]

Palestine
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Madagascar

Speaking of these two consecutively, I'm baffled nobody made the obvious connection If either Jews or Arabs of Palestine want to make their new homeland in Madagascar, I'm sure there'll be some unsettled parts of the tropical island! UGNR exports could use some expensive vanilla to shore up the current balance

This would lead to a proposal for Madagascar to be considered a candidate for admission to the UGNR as a separate and subordinate GNR. Whether this would be enough to defuse things on the ground remained to be seen. In the interim, a large police reinforcement began in an attempt to restore law and order. This was backed up by the deployment of the most experienced counter-insurgency troops in the world: the militia brigade that had put down countless Japanese uprisings in the Dodecanese Islands during GW2!

In time, Turkey would need to decide what should happen with the mish-mash of other colonies inherited from France, but Madagascar might help to provide a model for what to do (or not to do) for those, in coming months.

In my original proposal, Madagascar was a GNR together with any other Indian ocean or East African holdings. Since there aren't much of them, the peoples of Madagascar will have serious say on those regions as well. So a little boutique imperialism of their own, if you will, can maybe also sway them into this idea of staying within the UGNR.

By the end of 1947, a loose rebel provisional government had been set up in two zones: a provisional government was set up: The head of the northern zone was Victorien Razafindrabe, an ethnic Merina and low-ranking ex-official, whereas Betsileo ex-teacher Michel Radaoroson served as insurgent leader in the south. These were the more militant elements who simply desired ‘unconditional independence now’, while the Turks sought to engage more moderate leaders in their attempts to set up a semi-autonomous local government.

And if after all is said and done, some of the peoples of Madagascar want to stay with UGNR while others want to be completely independent, they can just split ways peacefully.

This would be the first phase for implementation. The recommendation was to implement the Diskoerekto Plan’s call for the further breakdown of Italy into six GNRs of roughly equal population size was endorsed. It would see three northern, one central and two southern republics formed.

I'm honored my plan has been the recommendation. The pieces will be of equal population, none too powerful by itself, and they'll each be more coherent internally in terms of culture, way of life, economy, etc.

“When? When did we ever refuse an accommodation?” Mike was getting a little riled now – or at least pretending to do so for effect. One could never tell. “All of you know me here. When did I ever refuse, except this one time? And why? Because we believe having these Italian GNRs too big is gonna destroy us in the years to come. Those pezzonovantes in the centre and north will get too big for their own good. And I believe that.”

voice of reason speaking

The meeting broke up, with Cennet and Vito exchanging significant glances. The meaning was clear enough: the old relationship between S.I.T.H. and its Mafia allies could continue, but if something went wrong, Cennet would of course side with her country first. Vito and his cronies would have to be careful. Whether they could maintain that kind of self-interested discipline in the longer term was of course a matter for conjecture.

it's been a nice meeting and everybody is on the same page with no hard feelings!

This was seen as potentially the most problematic and administratively difficult of the proposed regional reforms. Any changes to the current arrangements in the Balkans would be deferred until after the other changes had been made. The proposed changes would be kept confidential for now while other matters were progressed, hopefully to stable and enduring solutions.

Good call not to rock the boat too much at once. After things settle a bit, nobody will oppose a lot if regions which had Turkish, Muslim or Jewish pluralities in the last 50 years or so return to Turkish GNR. That's not too much to ask for I think

The proposed ‘Triple Partition’ of Iran and other UGNR territory in central Asia was widely supported. But, in a similar vein to Syria, there was some disquiet about possible insurrectionism and Iranian religious, political and/or nationalist tensions being provoked by any change – not necessarily because of its nature, but just as an opportunity to cause trouble. It would be enacted when sufficient administrative attention and internal security forces were available to safely implement the changes.

Again, good call to not rush things. If in the near or far future the Balochistani in our Balochistan or Pakistani side of the border want to merge either independently, or under one of Pakistan or UGNR; we'll be open to all 3 options. Our aim always is to defuse future tensions. After all Ataturk said Peace at Home, Peace in the World!

• How to respond to the American Vandenberg Plan – for Turkey proper, and for GNRs that might think to benefit from post-war financial support, plus ‘advice and guidance’ to be provided to the independent Bucharest Pact countries, such as the Czech Republic, who had already expressed interest in the program.

I think we (as in all Bucharest Pact countries) should get all we could while protecting local industries. So, yes to help but no to becoming dependent.

This was backed up by the deployment of the most experienced counter-insurgency troops in the world: the militia brigade that had put down countless Japanese uprisings in the Dodecanese Islands during GW2!

This cracked me up!

 

[Bullfilter]

Fair enough. I realise this is a tricky balancing act for Turkey, not wanting to step in and risk failure, but needing to take a position on an ugly situation that's unfolding right on the UGNR's own doorstep.

We're going to roll straight into the Palestine Crisis as a one-off episode for the next chapter. There, we shall see what events unfold and how Turkey (and others) react to them.

I think the best thing with Madagascar is to keep the approach under review and be ready to adapt. The good thing about this one is that it's a long way away and the outcome is not terribly important. It is also the only significant insurgency Turkey is currently facing, so it's an excellent test case with which to experiment.

All true. This is a quagmire the Turks have no desire to sink into. My feeling is they are a major power, now, sure, but not up to the UK, US or USSR in terms of their power projection capabilities or resources they can throw into this kind of conflict.

I hope this works. I understand the desire to keep the peace through this diplomatic initiative, but let's hope this doesn't blow up in the Milli Şef's face (maybe literally and without warning...) at some point in the future.

It remains a delicate situation. All it takes is just one hot-headed wise-guy to upset things ...

Loved the Turkish update! I'm away from a computer until Tuesday when I'll write a proper reply but note that it's an awesome update!

Thanks! And for the later comments (below).

In Palestine, you can only hope that only the foreseen problems arise. But the completely unexpected will probably arise at the most inopportune moments. Balkans will always be a lit match, a quarter-inch wick and a caravan of explosives. Thanks

Yes to all. The Balkan can has been kicked down the road a little way, but the situation in Palestine is just beyond Turkey's immediate control, providing a mixture of threats and risks, with very little in the way of opportunities and benefits!

Speaking of these two consecutively, I'm baffled nobody made the obvious connection If either Jews or Arabs of Palestine want to make their new homeland in Madagascar, I'm sure there'll be some unsettled parts of the tropical island! UGNR exports could use some expensive vanilla to shore up the current balance

Haha, there you go. But I doubt that's going to settle down things in Madagascar!

In my original proposal, Madagascar was a GNR together with any other Indian ocean or East African holdings. Since there aren't much of them, the peoples of Madagascar will have serious say on those regions as well. So a little boutique imperialism of their own, if you will, can maybe also sway them into this idea of staying within the UGNR.

A theoretical possibility I suppose, but I think the grievances and their expression are a bit more basic and primal than that at the moment. I think the broad mood in the ATL Turkish government is for non-colonisation so they don't end up having to de-colonise later after blood and treasure is spent trying to hang on to a post-French colonial remnant they never really wanted in the first place. Maybe a base or two for future wider aspirations, but otherwise my feeling is they want to cut bait rather than fish and concentrate on matters closer to home.

And if after all is said and done, some of the peoples of Madagascar want to stay with UGNR while others want to be completely independent, they can just split ways peacefully.

Oh no, another partition? They always seem to end in tears.

I'm honored my plan has been the recommendation. The pieces will be of equal population, none too powerful by itself, and they'll each be more coherent internally in terms of culture, way of life, economy, etc.

You're welcome and my appreciation for the work you put in on it.

voice of reason speaking

He's a reasonable man. A business man.

it's been a nice meeting and everybody is on the same page with no hard feelings!

'Nice' in that no blood was spilt immediately. They all understand each other, sure. But will they remain happy on either side as things move along? A more difficult proposition.

Good call not to rock the boat too much at once. After things settle a bit, nobody will oppose a lot if regions which had Turkish, Muslim or Jewish pluralities in the last 50 years or so return to Turkish GNR. That's not too much to ask for I think

I though it realistic. My head canon has Turkey currently struggling administratively, diplomatically and economically to keep Turkey itself, its recently inherited overseas colonies, the UGNR and the far-flung Bucharest Pact all under control at the same time. They are still pretty new to such wide responsibilities and I'm not sure if they really have the administrative and policy horsepower to do it all at once. They have to know their limitations.

Again, good call to not rush things. If in the near or far future the Balochistani in our Balochistan or Pakistani side of the border want to merge either independently, or under one of Pakistan or UGNR; we'll be open to all 3 options. Our aim always is to defuse future tensions. After all Ataturk said Peace at Home, Peace in the World!

Indeed.

I think we (as in all Bucharest Pact countries) should get all we could while protecting local industries. So, yes to help but no to becoming dependent.

This is my feeling too. I think Turkey will want all the help it can get, from whoever can provide it (the US, the USSR, even trade and investment from Japan). There will always be strings attached, they just have to ensure they don't become chains! Which may not be easy.

This cracked me up!

The conn4ection came to me as I contemplated what forces they might send. Who better!

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 265: The Crisis in Palestine, Jan-Jul 1948

Spoiler: Disclaimer

I understand that for many people this topic can be controversial and subject to differing interpretations. All I am attempting to do here is adapt a neutral overview of OTL events into the ATL narrative. I make no value judgements here and if any terms, errors, descriptions or events give unintended offence, then that is regretted.

Increasing Violence

In 5-7 January alone, the pro-Israeli groups Irgun and Haganah detonated bombs in a government complex in Jaffa, a hotel in West Jerusalem and the Jaffa Gate in Jerusalem, killing dozens of civilians, mainly Arabs. On 14 January the Battle of 3 Shevat was fought when Arab forces attacked Gush Etzion but were repulsed with heavy casualties.

The next day, in response a spokesman for the Arab League in Cairo said that regular armies of the Arab countries would occupy all of Palestine as soon as the British withdrew, and that any intervention by an international police force or large contingent of foreign troops "will be considered an unfriendly act by the Arab states, and the Council of the League, which is always in session, will take steps to meet the emergency."

On 16 January a convoy of Haganah fighters sent on foot to resupply the blockaded Gush Etzion but was destroyed by Arab villagers and militiamen. The conflict was now being described as a civil war. The communal warfare continued on 2 February with an Arab bombing of the offices of the Palestine Post newspaper in Jerusalem, killing 20 Jews.

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Civil War

In this climate, on 16 February the League of Nations Palestine Commission informed the Security Council that the plan to partition Palestine could not be carried out unless the Commission received "military forces in adequate strength." In other words, the formation of an LN peacekeeping force, as the British were unable to offer enough support as they drew down. No such force was forthcoming.

More bombing, mortar shelling and ground attacks on both Jewish and Arab locations followed throughout March, then 60 more were killed at Hartuv when British troops shelled Arab positions in the hills with 25-pounder guns on 22 March. Then on 23 March, a key point was reached when the two most representative bodies of Palestinian Jews, the Jewish Agency for Palestine and the Jewish National Council, agreed to establish a Jewish provisional government on May 16, the day after the expiration of the British mandate over Palestine.

April saw an increase in more organised ground fighting. On 15 April the ten-day Battle of Mishmar HaEmek ended in a successful Jewish counteroffensive that captured several Arab villages. The Battle of Haifa on 21-22 April ended in victory for Haganah forces that had launched an attack on the Arab neighbourhoods of Haifa.

Jewish fighters in Haifa, April 1948.​

Haganah’s elite Palmach force then launched Operation Yevusi on 22 April to assert Jewish control over Jerusalem. It ended incomplete on 3 May due to a ceasefire imposed by the British Army. Following this, Haganah announced that it had entered a pact with the Irgun to co-ordinate future operations.

Palmach fighters on their way to Jerusalem, April 1948.​

Amid this escalating violence, on 23 Apr The LN Security Council voted 8-0 to set up a three-power commission consisting of Turkey, France (a non-veto member of the LNSC at the time) and the United States to supervise the implementation of a truce in Palestine. On 28 April Arab and Jewish representatives agreed in the LN Trusteeship Council to observe a truce in the Old City of Jerusalem.

The Palmach began Operation Yiftach with the goal of capturing Safed and secure the eastern Galilee before the British Mandate ended on May 14. More fighting and alleged massacres by both sides followed. From 8-10 May Haganah forces launched Operation Maccabi against Arab forces and Palestinian irregulars occupying the road to Jerusalem, Operation Barak with the goal of capturing villages north of Gaza in anticipation of the arrival of the Egyptian Army and Operation Gideon with the objective of capturing Beisan, clearing the surrounding area and blocking one of the possible entry routes for Transjordanian forces.

---xxx---​

A Mandate Ends and a War Begins

The Israeli Declaration of Independence was proclaimed on 14 May, announcing that the State of Israel would come into effect upon termination of the British Mandate for Palestine the following day. Eleven minutes after Israel declared independence, President Dewey issued a concise memo that read:

"This Government has been informed that a Jewish state has been proclaimed in Palestine, and recognition has been requested by the provisional government thereof. The United States recognizes the provisional government as the de facto authority of the new State of Israel."​

Many followed, but this recognition would be far from universal.

David Ben-Gurion signs the Israeli Declaration of Independence, 14 May 1948.​

On 15 May The British mandate in Palestine expired at midnight, sparking the beginning of the Arab–Israeli War.

The British LN Mandate for Palestine of 1922.​

With Syria under Turkish direct administration in 1948, no contingents would be sent from that direction [unlike in OTL]. But an irregular force, the Arab Liberation Army, was formed in Jordan in early 1948, made up primarily of Syrian, Lebanese and Palestinian volunteers but also drawing recruits from several other Arab countries. Up to 6,000 fighters would take part in the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. As an irregular (and plausibly deniable) force, they were already operating in Palestine when the war formally broke out in mid-May.

Arab Liberation Army troops on parade in Palestine, early May 1948.​

A coalition of Arab states attacked the newly declared State of Israel (which of course they failed to recognise) under the overall command of King Abdullah of Transjordan. The Battle of Nirim was fought, with Egyptian forces failing to take the kibbutz of Nirim, and the Battles of the Kinarot Valley began.

Movements and battles in the Kinarot Valley up to 16 May 1948.​

The Battles of the Kinarot Valley would end in tactical stalemate on 22 May but were perceived as a decisive Israeli victory.

Final battles in the Kinarot Valley, 20-22 May 1948.​

On 16 May the 37-member Israeli State Council met for the first time and elected Chaim Weizmann provisional president, while Israel applied for membership in the League of Nations.

Chaim Weizmann, the new Provisional President of Israel.​

The Battle of Yad Mordechai (19-24 May) ended in a successful Israeli delaying action, though the Egyptians took the kibbutz itself. Fighting started on 25 May between the Israel Defence Forces and the Jordanian Arab Legion on the outskirts of Latrun and would last for weeks.

The Arab League rejected the LN's appeal for a ceasefire 26 May and gave the Council 48 hours to submit a proposal for a settlement of the entire Palestine problem.

King Abdullah outside the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, 29 May 1948, the day after Jordanian forces took control of the Old City in the Battle for Jerusalem.​

On 29 May The LNSC called for a four-week ceasefire in Palestine and threatened to apply sanctions if the parties did not comply within 72 hours. The LNSC judged on 2 June that both Israel and the Arab states had unconditionally accepted its demand for a four-week truce, despite reservations by both sides. An LN mediator would set a time for the ceasefire order to go into effect.

However, the fighting continued on the ground, with the Egyptian army attacking the kibbutz of Negba but being repulsed on 2 June. Then the Israeli Operation Pleshet (launched near Isdud on 29 May) ended in Egyptian tactical victory when the Israeli attack was repulsed on 3 June.

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Ceasefire

Israel and the Arab League agreed on 9 June to observe a four-week ceasefire beginning Friday at 6 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time. The Battle of Nitzanim ended in Egyptian victory on 10 June and on 11 June the Arab-Israeli truce went into effect.

General operations during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.
[Note: As Lebanon and Syria are under Turkish control in the ATL, OTL attacks by Syria have been cut from this map].​

As the Arabs and Israelis pondered their next moves, the Turkish Cabinet met in secret session to decide whether they should continue the current LN policy, which they were partly responsible for as one of the three Commission Members, or to propose a new course to the LNSC.

LN map showing the military situation in Palestine on 11 June, following the start ceasefire.​

The last British soldiers left Palestine through the port of Haifa on 30 June. The ceasefire was still holding but how long would it last and could a lasting peace be attained? Would Turkey decide to intervene and if they did so, would it be through the LN or unilaterally?

 

[Midnite Duke]

An excellent example of a quagmire in quicksand. Turkey has the narrowest path to walk of any major country to walk. In this universe, would less be known of the Holocaust as almost all of the concentration camps would have been liberated by the Soviets and the Soviets folded Germany into their orbit. The Brits have washed their hands of this affair. (I doubt that the soap was strong enough to wipe away all of the dirt.) Thank you

 

[diskoerekto]

As the Arabs and Israelis pondered their next moves, the Turkish Cabinet met in secret session to decide whether they should continue the current LN policy, which they were partly responsible for as one of the three Commission Members, or to propose a new course to the LNSC.

yeah, we (3 commission members) just sat on our hands while there was a war raging

The LN proposal was unviable, and even then both sides hated it. If a peace can be agreed with the current held areas as borders, we'll be fine with it and will help protect the peace and the border.

 

[SSmith]

The next day, in response a spokesman for the Arab League in Cairo said that regular armies of the Arab countries would occupy all of Palestine as soon as the British withdrew, and that any intervention by an international police force or large contingent of foreign troops "will be considered an unfriendly act by the Arab states, and the Council of the League, which is always in session, will take steps to meet the emergency."

I take this as a warning aimed at the League of Nations - but might this also be a shot across Turkey's bows?

Amid this escalating violence, on 23 Apr The LN Security Council voted 8-0 to set up a three-power commission consisting of Turkey, France (a non-veto member of the LNSC at the time) and the United States to supervise the implementation of a truce in Palestine.

OK, so Turkey is going to get dragged into mess this now...

The ceasefire was still holding but how long would it last and could a lasting peace be attained? Would Turkey decide to intervene and if they did so, would it be through the LN or unilaterally?

A ceasefire is progress. Probably best if the UGNR continues to work with LN commission for now. Something might come of it. If not, I fear Turkey faces a hard choice - take responsibility, or step back.

 

[Bullfilter]

An excellent example of a quagmire in quicksand. Turkey has the narrowest path to walk of any major country to walk. In this universe, would less be known of the Holocaust as almost all of the concentration camps would have been liberated by the Soviets and the Soviets folded Germany into their orbit. The Brits have washed their hands of this affair. (I doubt that the soap was strong enough to wipe away all of the dirt.) Thank you

A moot point I guess, but given these subjects are persona non grata on Paradox forums, I'll not speculate further in-story. We can however assume a broadly similar climate of opinion and activities as occurred in OTL The Brits are in retreat from everything smacking of Empire for now and can't escape quickly enough for their liking.

yeah, we (3 commission members) just sat on our hands while there was a war raging

The LN proposal was unviable, and even then both sides hated it. If a peace can be agreed with the current held areas as borders, we'll be fine with it and will help protect the peace and the border.

A short war, to which the LN did (to be fair) exert pressure for a cease-fire after that hopeless partition plan. But what next though? Renewed hostilities? LN inaction? Turkish intervention? Some other mess? I may be tossing the dice on this one!

I take this as a warning aimed at the League of Nations - but might this also be a shot across Turkey's bows?

It could well be a bit of both. They won't be impressed that their Arab brethren in Syria and Lebanon are back under 'neo-Ottoman' control, surely! But also need to tread carefully, in quite a different regional geo-strategic situation than applied in OTL.

OK, so Turkey is going to get dragged into mess this now...

Dragged, but how deeply? Hmmm ...

A ceasefire is progress. Probably best if the UGNR continues to work with LN commission for now. Something might come of it. If not, I fear Turkey faces a hard choice - take responsibility, or step back.

This seems the course for now. Though if things explode and chaos (fauda?) rules, strange things could happen.

 

[diskoerekto]

A short war, to which the LN did (to be fair) exert pressure for a cease-fire after that hopeless partition plan. But what next though? Renewed hostilities? LN inaction? Turkish intervention? Some other mess? I may be tossing the dice on this one!

Freezing the borders at the current status (although Israelis seem to have nearly all the arable land currently) and getting both sides to recognize each other would be a great win! If an intervention is necessary for that, we should make it. Something like a lightning amphibious drop at Ashdod and going inland holding the culturally/historically/religously important places as a neutral party while wedging ourselves between the Arabs and Israelis.

 

[Midnite Duke]

The Arabs and Israelis could begin to hate the peacekeepers more than each other. People who feel that they have been wronged tend to have long memories.

 

[Bullfilter]

Freezing the borders at the current status (although Israelis seem to have nearly all the arable land currently) and getting both sides to recognize each other would be a great win! If an intervention is necessary for that, we should make it. Something like a lightning amphibious drop at Ashdod and going inland holding the culturally/historically/religously important places as a neutral party while wedging ourselves between the Arabs and Israelis.

Getting a two-state solution to stick may be a little more possible in the ATL now, without the further decades of war and bitterness that have passed in the 75 years since, but is still a pretty long tightrope to walk, I reckon. Maybe Turkey will give it a try ... though I was thinking it could end up like Northern Ireland and many other places since where, once the peacekeepers get on the ground and things get messy, either the side they went in to protect, or both sides, end up going against them. I'm undecided on this, so may leave elements of it to the RNG after I do some more odds-based event trees.

The Arabs and Israelis could begin to hate the peacekeepers more than each other. People who feel that they have been wronged tend to have long memories.

Yes, my thoughts too. Could end up in three-way hostilities, though it could work too. After a fashion.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 266: Eastern Hemisphere, Jan-Jul 1948
​

India – Unnatural Disasters

Mahatma Gandhi began fasting for a "reunion of hearts" between the Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs of India on 13 January.

On 28 January 1948, India decided to launch Operation Polo to bring the princely state of Hyderabad back into line. The idea was for a quick and not-too-bloody absorption of the ‘renegade state’ into the new Indian nation.

The princely state of Hyderabad as it stood just before Operation Polo in January 1948.
​

But from the start the Nizam of Hyderabad, Mir Osman Akli Khan, showed that he had learned the lessons of the annexation of the Kingdom of Mysore in August 1947. The 35,000 regular Indian Army troops sent in would be met by determined resistance from 22,000 Hyderabad State Forces troops and up to an estimated 200,000 irregulars, the Razakars.

Razakar militia in the lead up to GW2, 1938.​

The Razakars were led by the highly influential Kasim Razvi (b. 17 July 1902), a politician in the princely state of Hyderabad. He was the president of the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen party from December 1946. He was the founder of the Razakar militia in the state and held the levers of power with the Nizam of Hyderabad, blocking the possibilities of his accommodation with the Dominion of India.

Kasim Razvi, leader of the Razakars, planning their mobilisation and response to Operation Polo on 28 January 1948.​

From the start, it became apparent that the Indian Army were significantly under-prepared and had woefully underestimated the training and determination of their regular and irregular Hyderabad opponents. Little headway was made by the Indian Army after they crossed the border in four places.

India’s planned axes of advance for Operation Polo. The two main thrusts would come from the east and west, converging on Hyderabad, while secondary advances would be made in the north and north-west.​

At the Battle of Naldurg Fort on 28 January, the 1st Hyderabad Infantry met and repulsed the 7th Indian Brigade on the western axis of the Sholapur-Secundarabad Highway, successfully defending the bridge over the Bori River before demolishing it, thus holding up an Indian armoured column poised to exploit the expected victory.

Indian armour trying to advance quickly on the first day of Operation Polo. They would find themselves often delayed and then blocked by effective Hyderabadi resistance over the next few days.​

In the east, Indian forces led by Lt. Gen A.A. Rudra met with fierce resistance from the 2nd and 4th Hyderabad Lancers, the two armoured car cavalry regiments equipped with Humber and Staghound armoured cars. The Indians were unable to get past, failing to reach their first main objective, the town of Kodar.

The Humber, one of the most widely produced British armoured cars of the Second Great War. The Mk IV was armed with a 37 mm gun and the most produced Humber variant.

The T17E1 ‘Staghound’ Armoured Car, a US design produced during the Second Great War. It saw service with British and other Commonwealth forces during the war under the name Staghound but was never used on the front line by US forces.​

On the 29th, Indian reconnaissance in the west failed to discover well entrenched Hyderabad ambush positions set up along the route to Rajeshwar, which inflicted heavy casualties on the advancing column until air strikes by Tempest ground support squadrons allowed them to withdraw back to their start line, with both sides taking heavy casualties. While back in the east, the Indian assault force was slowed by an anti-tank ditch and later came under heavy fire from hillside positions of the 1st Lancers and 5th Infantry 6 km from Suriapet.

To the north-west near Jalna, 3rd Sikhs, a company of the 2nd Jodhpur infantry and some tanks from 18th Cavalry faced stubborn resistance from Hyderabadi forces, now being reinforced by Razakar companies.

The third day of the Indian ‘police operation’ on 30 January saw the Indians try to break the deadlocks they found themselves in. the 3rd/11th Gurkhas tried to push aside the 3rd Golconda Lancers in front of Jalna: the Hyderabadi lancers gave ground, but were able to 4execute a fighting withdrawal to Jalna, whose defence was now bolstered by significant numbers a Razakar infantry units, for whom they had bought precious time to organise and start digging in.

Razakar troops as they had been mobilised ready for deployment during Operation Polo. They would receive rifles and some support weapons as they were deployed to reinforce the small Hyderabadi regular army!​

In the east, Suriapet suffered Indian air strikes which concentrated on regular Hyderabad State Forces positions with some success, driving many of them back. But irregular Razakar troops offered strong resistance. Suriapet was occupied by 2nd/5th Gurkhas that afternoon, but small Razakar detachments continued to harass them within the town using urban guerrilla tactics. The retreating Hyderabadi forces destroyed the bridge at Musi to delay the Indians further.

But the news that dominated that day in India itself was the shocking death of Mahatma Gandhi. At 5:17 p.m. Indian Standard Time, Mahatma Gandhi was assassinated by Nathuram Godse on the steps of the Birla House in New Delhi. His assassin was a Chitpavan Brahmin from Pune, Maharashtra, a Hindu nationalist and member of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing Hindu paramilitary organisation. It seemed things were spiralling out of control for India both at home and in Hyderabad.

​

The next day Gandhi's body was carried in a five-hour procession through the streets of Delhi to the bank of the Jumna River where it was cremated on a funeral pyre of sandalwood logs strewn with flowers. An estimated one million Indians witnessed the procession and cremation ceremony.

​

By 31 January, the Indian command knew their plans had gone badly awry in Hyderabad. The heavy casualties had not been anticipated, Razakar mobilisation was well under way and international opinion was now starting to swing firmly against the Indian Government, given it was clear this would be no easy and bloodless no-contest against a state whose people fully supported accession to India. The Indians attempted to flank the Hyderabadi defences in the east on the Solapur-Hyderabad City Highway, but encountered fire from well-layed ambush positions and were halted. The Indians suffered from very active Razakar ambushes whenever they attempted to push through urban areas.

By the morning of the 5th day of hostilities on 1 February, it had become clear that the Hyderabad Army and the Razakars had imposed heavy casualties and delay on all fronts, with both sides taking heavy casualties. The situation was a disaster and embarrassment for India. A ceasefire was negotiated in the field.

Major General Syed Ahmed El Edroos (at right) accepts the ceasefire and withdrawal of the Indian Army from Major General Joyanto Nath Chaudhuri at Secunderabad, 2 February 1948.​

At 5 pm, the Nizam announced a ceasefire had been agreed with India, thus ending the armed action for now. But although an armistice had been agreed and the Indian Army pulled back to the border, no treaty was signed and India felt it retained a valid casus belli against the ‘rebellious’ State of Hyderabad, which remained surrounded by India and largely cut off from the outside world.

Sadly, examples of inter-communal violence between Muslim and Hindu Hyderabadis followed. In the aborted ‘police action’ and the violence that followed, estimates of between 40-200,000 military and civilian casualties were made.

Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru (left) and Nizam Mir Sir Osman Ali Khan (right), met to discuss the situation during talks in March, but neither side was prepared to give ground. Then truce was continued indefinitely, but no permanent peace was to come in the short term as the impasse continued into July 1948.​

Spoiler: Hyderabad Die Rolls

Die roll of 1/12 each month until intervention occurs, from July 1947. Once activated, result per month until resolved: 70% annexed, 25% continue rolling until outcome, 5% independent (India retains a casus belli). In OTL this did not occur until September 1948. Intervention rolled in January, then the response was a 99% die roll: a decisive repulse of the Indian police action!

---xxx---​

Pakistan

As India wrestled with the ‘Hyderabad Problem’, Pakistan was still trying to persuade – or threaten – the princely state of Kalat to accede to Pakistani rule. But the stand-off continued all through from January to June, without Kalat budging of Pakistan acting to intervene with force. Perhaps the example of Hyderabad was on their mind.

Spoiler: Kalat Die Roll

Delayed Accession die rolls for Peaceful Persuasion. 1/12 chance per month of resolution roll:

1-90%: accession to Pakistan (no further action)​

91-100%: independence asserted (Pakistan reacts)​

If independence asserted:​

1-95%: armed Pakistan intervention then each month 1-70% suppressed, 71-90% continue rolling until outcome, 91-95% long term guerrilla activity; 96-100% independence (Pakistan casus belli).​

Otherwise, Pakistan continued to negotiate with India, mediated by an LN Commission, on settling the final borders in areas where mixed religious communities made the old nominal British-defined state borders messy. This process was largely amicable, given the circumstances, though the fate of Kashmir remained more fraught, with the LN SC stepping in to mediate separately on that issue.

On 20 January, the LN Security Council voted 9–0 to establish a three-member commission to mediate the Indo-Pakistani disagreement over Kashmir. The LNSC adopted Resolution 47 on Kashmir on 21 April, recommending a three-step progress for the resolution of the dispute.

Together, these processes had minimised (though not eliminated) communal violence in disputed areas on both sides of the provisional border. And they had also prevented the outbreak of conflict between India and Pakistan, where Kashmir remained the most provocative flash point – especially for Pakistan, which felt it had got a ‘raw deal’ from the accession process.

---xxx---​

Ceylon

The British colony of Ceylon achieved independence when the Dominion of Ceylon (later Sri Lanka) was proclaimed on 4 February 1948.

The formal ceremony marking the start of self-rule, with the opening of the first parliament at Independence Square by Prince Henry, Duke of Gloucester in the presence of Rt Hon D.S. Senanayake as first Prime Minister of Ceylon.

---xxx---​

China and Japan

In China, the loose arrangement between the Nationalists and Japan continued to bear dividends for both sides – to the detriment of Mao’s Communist state. Beset from both sides, by March their insurgency against Japan been comprehensively defeated. Chiang brought Shanxi and the agreed areas to its east into the Republic, while Mao returned to the hinterland to regroup, conduct limited guerrilla operations and decide on his next steps.

Mao with his fourth wife, Jiang Qing, called "Madame Mao", while on the run in the hinterland of Shanxi, June 1948.​

The Japanese were able to keep the two wings of its military and political power base balanced during this period, with the arrangement in China allowing Japan to devote more attention to the long Mongolian and Manchurian border with the Soviets and to dealing with unrest in Korea and Vietnam. There were enough advantages to keep the right-wing imperialist clique from acting, but rumours and threats of coups continued to be worried about in Tokyo.

---xxx---​

Indonesia

In Indonesia, on 17 January the Renville Agreement, an LN-brokered ceasefire in the Indonesian conflict was signed between Dutch and Indonesian representatives aboard the US Navy transport ship USS Renville off the Java coast.

Signing ceremony for the 'Renville Agreement', 17 January 1948.​

A demarcation was agreed in Java along the Van Mook truce line. There would be a rather complex system of shared sovereignty between the pro-independence Republic of Indonesia at new federalist state the Dutch were attempting to set up called the United States of Indonesia. There would be referendums to determine which areas would accede to which regime. The Republic of Indonesia would be a component of the wider Federal USI (RIS being the Indonesian abbreviation), but the nationalists hoped to end up dominating the new state following the referendums and development of a new constitution.

The Van Mook Line in Java. Areas in red were under Republican control.​

In summary, according to the Renville Agreement, the Netherlands had sovereignty in Indonesia, until the formation of the United States of Indonesia. Before the USI was formed, Dutch power would be transferred to a provisional federal government. The Republic of Indonesia is part of the USI. Within a year, a general election will be held to draft the USI constitution. All Indonesian soldiers who were in Dutch occupation areas or guerrilla areas had withdraw to the territory of the Republic of Indonesia.

The "Status Quo Line" (Van Mook Line) on 12 February 1948.​

All along, these arrangements seemed to be too complicated and based on shifting sands. Diplomatic efforts between the Netherlands and the Republic continued throughout the first half of 1948. Political pressures, both domestic and international, hindered Dutch efforts to achieve their goals, while the Republican leaders faced great difficulty in persuading their people to accept diplomatic concessions.

By July 1948 negotiations were in deadlock and the Netherlands pushed unilaterally towards Van Mook's federal Indonesia concept. The new federal states of South Sumatra and East Java were created, although neither had a viable support base. Mutual distrust between the Netherlands and the Republic would continue to negotiations. The Republic feared a second major Dutch offensive, while the Dutch objected to continued Republican activity on the Dutch side of the Renville line.

---xxx---​

Malaya

The Federation of Malaya was created on 1 February 1948 from nine Malay states and two British Straits Settlements. Within the Federation, while the Malay states were protectorates of the United Kingdom, Penang and Malacca remained British colonial territories. Like the Malayan Union before it, the Federation did not include Singapore, despite its traditional connections with Malaya.

Dato' Onn bin Jaafar Mentri Besar of Johor and President of the United Malays National Organisation (left), unpacking the State and Federation of Malaya Agreements with Dr. W. Linehan, C.M.G. Adviser on Constitutional Affairs, for the signatures of His Highness the Sultan of Johor, February 1948.​

The guerrilla war known as the Malayan Emergency began between British Commonwealth forces and the Malayan National Liberation Army on 16 June 1948.

Malayan police patrol, June 1948.​

Chin Peng (b. 21 October 1924) was a Malayan communist politician, anti-fascist activist and long-time leader of the Malayan Communist Party (MCP) and the Malayan National Liberation Army (MNLA). During Great War II, he fought as an anti-fascist guerrilla fighter in the Malayan Peoples' Anti-Japanese Army against the Japanese occupation of Malaya. A determined anti-colonialist, he led the party's guerrilla insurgency in the Malayan Emergency.

Chin Peng, Leader of The Malayan Communist Party.

Malayan Communist fighters, 1948.

---xxx---​

Korea

On 1 March, Japan announced that general elections would be held in Korea under LN supervision on 9 May. The elections would be observed "in such parts of Korea as are accessible to the commission." Which meant some areas under Communist control in the North would be off limits, as they boycotted the ‘sham election’. The election would establish a Korean Constituent Assembly, not an independent Government, that would be granted a degree of local autonomy under a Japanese Governor General, who would exercise final sovereignty in the Emperor’s name.

The Japanese hoped this compromise option would allow it to retain effective control over Korea, while assuaging the views of the Western governments, especially the US, it was now courting. Naturally, Kim and the North Korean communists, with Soviet backing, rejected this proposed modus operandi. Preparations were soon under way in earnest for a Communist break-away republic, under Soviet protection, to be formed. Tensions grew as both sides built up troop positions.

Kim Il Sung announces the establishment of the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea on May Day 1948. The Japanese did not immediately respond with force, given the threat of Soviet support for the Korean Communists. They did not recognise the legality of the DPRK, but seemed for now to accept the fait accompli they had been presented with.​

Barely a week before the planned election, on 1 May The Korean People's Committee in the Soviet-controlled northern zone of Korea announced the establishment of a "People's Republic", claiming jurisdiction over all of Korea and adopting a Soviet-style constitution. The US and Japan soon issued messages indicating that they did not recognise the People's Committee as a legitimate government and did not intend to negotiate with it. Of course, given the veto powers were at loggerheads in the LNSC, that body was powerless to resolve the situation.

The Korean election of 1948 was overseen by the League of Nations, but was boycotted in many of the Communist controlled areas of the north, further limiting its perceived legitimacy: certainly in Soviet eyes.​

On 31 May the Korean Constituent Assembly convened in Seoul for the first time and elected Syngman Rhee as its chairman. Rhee's administration was characterised by authoritarianism and limited economic development – so chimed in well with the objectives of their Japanese overlords of the time.

Syngman Rhee (b. 26 March 1875), Korean politician who became the chairman of the semi-autonomous Korean Constituent Assembly in May 1948.

---xxx---​

Philippines

Elpidio Quirino became the 6th President of the Philippines on 17 April 1948, the day after Manuel Roxas died in office. He continued the policy of acknowledging Japanese controlling influence and basing rights, while also courting increased US investment and involvement in the rebuilding of its former protectorate.

---xxx---​

Vietnam

Ho Chi Minh had narrowly escaped capture by the Japanese and their local puppet troops late in 1947. But the Viet Minh had not been eliminated, though its fortunes had suffered. Ho would attempt to gradually seize the initiative from the Japanese in the first half of 1948 with some local successes.

Ho Chi Minh returns to guerrilla operations, January 1948.​

The Viet Minh leadership anticipated that the Japanese would try to increase pressure in the north and consolidate their control of the South. The broad goal of the Vietnamese communist leadership was to “smash the enemy’s winter offensive in Bac Bo and to foil the mopping up operations in Nam Bo” through “a people’s war” in enemy-controlled territories. The objective was to “destroy the enemy’s isolated positions and narrow their zone of occupation”. The Viet Minh leadership hoped to drive the Japanese out of Viet Bac, in particularly Bac Can, Cao Bang and Lao Cai.

Ho Chi Minh (centre) with General Vo Nguyen Giap (top, left), May 1948.​

Guerrilla warfare would now predominate, while mobile warfare would play a secondary role. Through this, the leadership hoped that they could gradually re-build their regular army and that the balance of forces would eventually change in their favour.

Continued Japanese military operations in Vietnam was one of the accommodations the governing Liberals had to make in Tokyo in order to keep the hard-line imperialists in check. The government would have preferred to come to some sort of agreement with Ho, perhaps allowing him to administer the northern part of Vietnam, while retaining Japanese control (and basing rights) over southern Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos through puppet regimes. But this policy tension had to be lived with for now and remained the case by the end of June 1948.

 

[SSmith]

On 28 January 1948, India decided to launch Operation Polo to bring the princely state of Hyderabad back into line. The idea was for a quick and not-too-bloody absorption of the ‘renegade state’ into the new Indian nation.

From the start, it became apparent that the Indian Army were significantly under-prepared and had woefully underestimated the training and determination of their regular and irregular Hyderabad opponents. Little headway was made by the Indian Army after they crossed the border in four places.

At 5 pm, the Nizam announced a ceasefire had been agreed with India, thus ending the armed action for now. But although an armistice had been agreed and the Indian Army pulled back to the border, no treaty was signed and India felt it retained a valid casus belli against the ‘rebellious’ State of Hyderabad, which remained surrounded by India and largely cut off from the outside world.

That certainly went well as it could for Nizam and Hyderabad! Even so, I see this as delaying the invevitable, and hopefully the assimiliation of Hyderabad can be achieved by patient diplomacy rather than another war.

On 20 January, the LN Security Council voted 9–0 to establish a three-member commission to mediate the Indo-Pakistani disagreement over Kashmir. The LNSC adopted Resolution 47 on Kashmir on 21 April, recommending a three-step progress for the resolution of the dispute.

Together, these processes had minimised (though not eliminated) communal violence in disputed areas on both sides of the provisional border. And they had also prevented the outbreak of conflict between India and Pakistan, where Kashmir remained the most provocative flash point – especially for Pakistan, which felt it had got a ‘raw deal’ from the accession process.

So far so good. This could still be a lot worse than it is.

In China, the loose arrangement between the Nationalists and Japan continued to bear dividends for both sides – to the detriment of Mao’s Communist state. Beset from both sides, by March not only had their insurgency against Japan been comprehensively defeated. Chiang brought Shanxi and the agreed areas to its east into the Republic, while Mao returned to the hinterland to regroup, conduct limited guerrilla operations and decide on his next steps.

The rather tangled web linking Japan, Nationalist China and the US continues to bear dividends. There may still be some mileage in it yet, as Chiang should really concentrate on consolidating his gains before trying to push back against Japan.

Political pressures, both domestic and international, hindered Dutch efforts to achieve their goals, while the Republican leaders faced great difficulty in persuading their people to accept diplomatic concessions.

Mutual distrust between the Netherlands and the Republic would continue to negotiations. The Republic feared a second major Dutch offensive, while the Dutch objected to continued Republican activity on the Dutch side of the Renville line.

This doesn't feel like it's over just yet...

The Viet Minh leadership anticipated that the French would try to increase pressure in the north and consolidate their control of the South.

Typo? I think this should read "Japanese".

 

[Bullfilter]

Typo? I think this should read "Japanese".

Quick fix: oops, yes!

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Gambling is the Devil's game, for the House always wins.

Kelebek smoked through a job well done. Here, the ethnic and religious tensions would lead to decades of violence. There, unrelenting civil war over independence and betrayel. The largest empire in history had been brought low, and a whole host of new powers had arisen to market.

All from one poor, desperate soul's wish:

'Save my country. Make us strong.'

How long had it been since Kamal had made that plea? That pact? Decades? Millenia? Time had no meaning to Kelebek. So much change, in exchange for a man's soul - driving him to drink his way that much closer to his demise.

And it got better! This time, Kelebek found not only fertile, not only desperate, but willing participants in the latest cult. SITH would cut a bloody passage through history before someone got lucky and harvested the reapers themselves.

Yes, Kelebek was pleased. And yet, there was a degree of melancholy too. The game was over. Turkey had sold themsevles, and gotten their war and their empire. Through clever words and actions, the world was now neatly and not so neatly divided in twain.

Time to move on, and yet...

What was that? A small waver in the darkness?

A man sat alone and depressed, full of drink in the worker's cantina. He had done the impossible, his team and him. They had delivered the world to the proletariat. A new age of freedom from oppression, where all people from all nations joined a commonwealth of mercy and plenty.

Stolen. Savaged. Brought low by petty power and lesser men. Stalin had ruined his legacy at the negotiating table. Arrested his team. Sent them to the far edges of the Union THEY had forged!

And now, it is finished. The Chinese would kowtow to the Japanese imperialists and Amercian capitalists rather than succeed themsevles under Mao.

The Vietnamese would be left to die whilst Stalin enriched himself on stolen Germany machines. It made his blood boil.

Then it made him angry.

Too angry.

'I swear, I would sell my soul to make this right.'

Kelebek smiled. The game would begin anew.

And the devil would always get his due.

 

[Midnite Duke]

India needs to cut off access to Hyderabad from the rest of the world. Without access to a port and all highway/rail connections provided by India, H must depend on air for all non-internal needs. What outside countries, do you see backing Hy? Thanks

 

[diskoerekto]

At 5 pm, the Nizam announced a ceasefire had been agreed with India, thus ending the armed action for now. But although an armistice had been agreed and the Indian Army pulled back to the border, no treaty was signed and India felt it retained a valid casus belli against the ‘rebellious’ State of Hyderabad, which remained surrounded by India and largely cut off from the outside world.

They so badly need a port or a friendly neighbor!

Die roll of 1/12 each month until intervention occurs, from July 1947. Once activated, result per month until resolved: 70% annexed, 25% continue rolling until outcome, 5% independent (India retains a casus belli). In OTL this did not occur until September 1948. Intervention rolled in January, then the response was a 99% die roll: a decisive repulse of the Indian police action!

Wow!

Pakistan

If they want, we can trade for the Balochi part of Pakistan in return for the Pashtun parts of UGNR owned Afghanistan.

The Japanese were able to keep the two wings of its military and political power base balanced during this period, with the arrangement in China allowing Japan to devote more attention to the long Mongolian and Manchurian border with the Soviets and to dealing with unrest in Korea and Vietnam. There were enough advantages to keep the right-wing imperialist clique from acting, but rumours and threats of coups continued to be worried about in Tokyo.

Where is Japan finding raw materials and oil to keep its economy running? I doubt USSR sells them any. Are they now on good trading relationship with USA?

The Federation of Malaya was created on 1 February 1948 from nine Malay states and two British Straits Settlements. Within the Federation, while the Malay states were protectorates of the United Kingdom, Penang and Malacca remained British colonial territories. Like the Malayan Union before it, the Federation did not include Singapore, despite its traditional connections with Malaya.

In this timeline I'm hoping for a greater ASEAN republic in SE Asia, especially between Malaysia Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei.

Guerrilla warfare would now predominate, while mobile warfare would play a secondary role. Through this, the leadership hoped that they could gradually re-build their regular army and that the balance of forces would eventually change in their favour.

I hope our EDOK Komutanligi (Education and Doctrine Command) is taking notes