Switzerland vs Savoy: Day 1 DoW

[neondt]

I'm playing Switzerland in a MP game tomorrow and I've been experimenting with some opening strategies for DoWing AI Savoy on day 1 (Savoy will be an AI in MP also). I'm not exactly an expert on this game's combat system so I ran a handful of practice games. So far these are my opening moves:

1. Before unpausing: DoW Savoy for your core on Wallis, train 2 infantry in Waldstatte and Graubunden, then scorch earth in Bern. Hire a military adviser if one is available that makes your armies more effective. Turn your ruler into a general and hire another using MP. Assign the one with the highest combined shock and manoever to your army.
2. Move army to Waldstatte while the infantry are recruiting. Meanwhile Savoy will start sieging Bern.
3. When the infantry are recruited, combine the army then move them to Wallis.
4. The AI will then either attack your forces in Wallis immediately, or finish sieging Bern and attack Wallis after that. If the RNG favours you, this is a crushing victory. If not, you're a bit screwed.
5. Depending on casualties, either pursue the Savoyards and hope to wipe their stack, or start sieging Piedmont (it's mountainous and blocks off their army).
6. If you wipe their stack, proceed to siege Vaud and Wallis. They'll concede both provinces and some money once both sieges are won. Otherwise, break off some units from Piedmont to siege either Vaud or Wallis, keeping an eye on what Savoy is doing with its army. Once 2 sieges are won, they'll accept a similar peace.

This process usually takes about 2 years of game time, which I think is acceptable. There is however quite a lot of RNG involved - you can't predict either your ruler's or your general's stats prior to the game, and if Savoy rolls a good general things get very shaky. You also may not get any good advisers. I'd like to know if there's any way I could optimise this strategy - particularly in terms of near-guaranteeing victory at Wallis (odds so far are around 75%). If you have a totally different method, please share that too!

 

[neondt]

Aren't there high chances that he will ally himself with a few countries in day 2 or so whom will also join in against you in war ? That's what has happened to me when I tried such things..

In the 10+ test games I ran, only Hungary has joined the war (it joins fairly often actually) but never sends troops because it can't get access through Austria. Savoy sometimes makes other alliances but none of them ever join the war.