That is interesting, but what makes this tricky is that you get your explorer from your norwegian ideas kind of late - I wish they switched the order you get these. Without the range buff from exploration, you'll also have to wait a bit also before you can get started, but there should still be plenty of open territory to grab. Plus since you are steering into the North Sea, you don't have to worry about the Carribean initially which is where Spain/Portugal seem to focus on initially.
When i did this, I took exploration and expansion to get a total of 4 colonists which was fun, but definitely less efficient as you are sort of wasting an idea as you are getting conquistadors/explorers twice. Then again, I do kind of now feel like giving this a shot - though I'm currently addicted to using the mod MEIOU&T, so I might have to try this in that setting!
Well the way I see it is that you'll start colonisation when getting your third idea group, and pick Expansion then. You need 12 ideas to unlock your explorating idea + range and you should have DIP tech 9 at this point also, giving you enough range. In the meantime, you could pick Naval as a first idea and fill it to the max, and a military group afterwards (Quality seems fine as a Naval/Land group). Then with your Naval superiority and hopefully a strong ally (France/Castille/Denmark), you can take on England and prevent them from taking the regions you want in America(Hudson Bay, St Lawrence, Cheasapeake).
Trying to get 12 ideas by your second group seems difficult, as you'll need to pick Expansion as your first or second group, and it won't be useful until you fill 5 ideas in there (except for the merchant) which will make your DIP tech lag behind and with only +33% range and DIP tech 7, you cannot reach Greenland (correct me if I'm wrong here).
Still, starting around 1518 (ADM 10) could be fun (on paper, I should test this) and the Reformation should have started by this point (and you should convert). This leaves you 70 years to break your Union, annex Scotland for total North Sea power, get Novgorod's provinces in the White Sea for a monopoly in the fur's trade, takeover Scandinavia and kill England before it becomes strong. Quite a program actually.
