I'd like to know how you successfully kep the US out of the Allies. Even with me spending precious leadership on Influencing them, and 200 relationship through trade they still "Align with Allies" and end up in them before the end of '38. After that, they aren't going to have any change of heart, whoever you elect, are they?
There does seem to be some randomness in the engine. South Africa is a part of the Axis in my current game - the Boers don't seem to like the British... (of course Italy & Nat. Spain spent a lot of influence points on them)
I have many (and I mean
many) trade deals with the USA. They are currently drifting towards the Allies at a rate that is about 0.1 above the drift towards the Axis. However, their distance to the Allies is 150+, so not a major worry.
Make as many trade deals as you can with the USA. It seems the number of deals, and not the quantity/deal, affects relations. So instead of one trade deal buying 50 metal, 50 rare metals and 50 oil, make 15 deals buying 10 each.
Also, the USA canceled all my purchase deals once my threat level went up. However, the supply deals (where I sell & they purchase) are still in place.
You could also try to increase Britain's threat level with your spies from 1936 onwards. That could cause the USA drift away from the Allies.