I donnot even build them in the first place. Managing Paras properly would cause me headache.
AoD does have many things that need managing. But PARA are especially outstanding in their needs for that. Not so much management perhaps, as simply the decision to commit them. I well understand the possibility for headache although it seems to work a bit different psychologically speaking (at least for me). Using PARAs if one is brave enough to land them behind enemy lines can create worry that is out of all proportion to most anything else in the game. The worry is, of course, losing them. While a fleet may be much more investment than a PARA division, somehow getting one of my fleets battered and some sunk never seems to create the worry I feel sending out my PARAS to play a strategic role in a blitzkrieg - such as grabbing simultaneously 2-3 enemy airbases behind friendly lines. Of course, it only occurs as part of a grand master plan that supposedly used good intel to determine that the PARAs will be rescued before they are lost. And so far I never lost one. (lucky maybe?). But the joy of the game is the trepidation that results with risk taking. However, I sometimes - as I launch the TRA on their challenging missions - feel so much worry (in fact fear of disaster) that occasionally I've had to remind myself "it is only a game". Nobody will die if my paratroopers fail. So, I suggest "try using them" for an exciting game experience.
2 brigades are near nothing. A fair comparison would be 36 Inf-SHRA + additional supplies costs + Infracost vs. 4 Para + 6 Tra + Airbases. SHRA need numbers, Paras donnot.
I had anticipated that your number of planned SHRA might be that high - needing 36 infantry... all of which will be too slow (once the battles to take provinces are won) to contribute to the faster movement and timing blitzkriegs demand. So, I guess, that you just disband them then. Wonder how I would feel if I were to just disband 4 Para and 6 TRA (which you calculate is equivalent). I'll tell you how I would feel - very wasteful.
BTW: 36 Inf-SHRA can consume 45 supplies each with a few hour. That is 1620 supplies with a few hours. My earlier figures might be a bit exaggerated. Still using offensive supplies will cause some addditonal costs, too.
Exaggerated or not, it only increases as you spend more IC building otherwise unneeded still higher infra just so you can consume even greater amounts of supplies/hour. What is this... an exercise of grabbing the record for most supplies consumed in any set time period?
Given the chronically low ESE in these region it does not seem to be the most lucrative targets on the map. As rule of tumb the farer a provice is away from the coast the less important it is.
So Paris is less important than Berlin (doubt the Parisians will agree). But looking at your "rule of thumb" from only the conqueror's side, Oslo is significantly more important than either London, Paris or Moscow? Maybe the rule of thumb needs a few extra fingers included to make more rational rules.
I mentioned liberating Siberia to raise a puppet army to protect the Far East coastline - especially Vladivostok which is a 10 point Naval Base in the Pacific that German player can have (if wanted) to do some interesting game strategy with. It isn't about any "lucrative value" but only strategic importance. If German player decides to go for Vladivostok, then creating Siberia earlier (and repaired) is his wisest plan. Or the Wehrmacht can station their own divisions there to attrition away over the winters if you rather. Thinking of creating Siberia as early as possible I realistically estimate that doing it without PARA takes at least a year longer - meaning that Siberia's army build (which is quite significant) is delayed by that much.
If mobile forces run out of fuel something is rather very wrong.
Well, you might better conclude that what is wrong is that "Bitter Peace was avoided". But if going past the Bitter Peace line you will discover a whole new set of rules. Such as "fuel tanks never fully fill up it seems" and "they empty almost totally in just a few days once movement resumes" and "it seems mobile units can never even travel further than one province without taking long rest break" and "motorized units that start less than fully fuelled can struggle for weeks (even months) to reach next province in the northern marshes (and show progress) ... but will never reach their destination it seems because of "out-of-fuel". And all of this is experienced with a determined build of new infra as is reasonable during the advance. But nothing is wrong - it's just AoD game stats. So suddenly paratroopers start looking like angels.
EDIT; PS: For a very interesting read of Fallschirmjaeger contributing to the Wehrmacht's successes I recommend reading ""Uber Allen" A Third Reich Mod 1.08.2 AAR" by Lima Tango. Give it a fair chance, it gets considerably better once war breaks out... and his use of paratroopers is not radical but just kinda historic, I think. Maybe it will change your mind about PARA and your earlier statement that "They cannot help much in the initial break thru".
@ Lima Tango "Great AAR, glad I read it... and left you comment".