Suggestions for a German intervention in Sino-Japan war?

[DeclaredYuppie]

Doing an alternate history type playthrough with Germany siding against Japan to defend/ally Nationalist China. I'm playing on normal and the war has kicked off in August of 1938. Some general notes on my situation:

-I did a custom start to go with carrier technology instead of BC/BBs. I have 2 carriers at the moment, each with 2 CAs, 3 CLs and 2 DDs as screens.
-Also have 2 fleets of transport convoys, each with 5 transport ships and ~3 CLs/DDs for sub defense
-My airforce is pretty well filled out with 8 INT wings, 8 TAC, 2 NAV, 4 CAS and a handful of multi-role and transport planes
-Army consists of 4 divisions ARM, 9 LARM, 5 MOT, 5 Marines, 5 Mountain, 5 INF with anti-tank support and about 35-40 general 3xINF,1xART standard infantry.
-When the war starts I've guaranteed China, but they aren't part of the Axis. As such, the closest I can get troops before the war is Italian Ethiopia.
-Current Axis members: Italy, Poland, Persia
-I have annexed Austria, but did not do Treaty of Munich. Once Japan starts the war, I lose that decision...I played about 2 months in to the war and didn't have England or anyone suddenly declare war on me, so I think that's good.


So the general issue is that it's tough but possible to get land forces into North China (slowly escorting the transports through the Taiwan Straights usually the riskiest part) to help hold the line after 1-2 weeks of the war. My armor cuts up Japanese forces pretty well, but they have a huge numbers advantage that leaves me very worried about being encircled if they start pushing down through Shanxi. Also my carrier groups- especially when I keep them close to shore so INTs can support them- can generally stand up to the Japanese navy...but they're pretty good at out-running me once their org drops too much.

Any thoughts/ideas on how to generally approach this war? I don't think I can outpace Japan in a naval buildup over the course of a year or two- I have a 3rd carrier in the works but it won't be ready until 1940. Nor do I want to leave my forces sitting in a defensive action for multiple years while Japan feels out how far west they're willing to go into Asia before looping around me. I do feel one of my early goals should be to invade Taiwan and hope that makes shipping troops up and down the coast a little less risky.

 

[SirArthur]

Huh ? Take Taiwan and then Japan. End of story. I doubt you need more than a transport fleet and some destroyers. Rest should do your MNT, INT, TAC and ARM.

 

[Gunnarr]

Huh ? Take Taiwan and then Japan. End of story. I doubt you need more than a transport fleet and some destroyers. Rest should do your MNT, INT, TAC and ARM.

Maybe he doesn't want to go, THAT alternative but good idea...

 

[DeclaredYuppie]

Huh ? Take Taiwan and then Japan. End of story. I doubt you need more than a transport fleet and some destroyers. Rest should do your MNT, INT, TAC and ARM.

Isn't Japan's navy going to have something to say about the dinky invasion fleet sitting off their coast, not to mention the convoys I'll have to pipe in to their port to keep those invasion troops moving?

 

[marxianTJ]

You would be surprised.

A naval landing on uncontested land (which is where his divisions would go - they'll only actually engage in a fight if they can't land elsewhere) actually occurs fairly rapidly.

Even if a junk fleet gets sunk quickly, chances are, some troops would make it to the ground, and the home islands are *very* lightly defended. With the beachhead established, it would be entirely possible to then simply transport units in and out, and with a bit of micro (running away when you see a fleet) it'd be pretty doable.

I'd recommend building a fairly substantial junk-fleet armada though lol. 3-4 groups of 4DD/4TP and land them all at once in different areas of the home islands - the Japanese Navy won't really be able to hit you in 4 places at once, and then you just get yourself carting units over with the remaining fleet until the home islands are under German control.

I'd take Taiwan first though - it'd be easier to mass your troops there first for the assault on the home islands.


Sadly, particularly in TFH, NAT CHI (AI) in a standard 1936 start is hopeless against Japan and will collapse within 2-3 months without a huge amount of assistance. So, you either have to *really* distract Japan in the mainland, or deliver a knock out blow to the home islands as quickly as possible.

 

[SirArthur]

Isn't Japan's navy going to have something to say about the dinky invasion fleet sitting off their coast, not to mention the convoys I'll have to pipe in to their port to keep those invasion troops moving?

Not really no, they will try to take back Taiwan though, but once you have your army on Taiwan(or better gather your reserve armys at a chinese harbour close to Taiwan) it is pretty much over (don't forget the INT). Build a second harbour in Taiwan, move your army inwards and wait for the Jap counterattack. You should be able to kill parts of their fleet with airstrikes alone (that is the part where you need the TACs and INT for, NAV may be better but it should be enough)
First strike is Hokkaido, 1 corps is enough, this corps should dig in at the strait. This should force some Jap units north (he usually sends MNT). Second strike is against Kyushu. This is the most critical part, because you probably won't have paratroopers(with them it would be easy to take a harbor). But don't go all in yet. Kyushu is nice, but the Jap navy can still block the strait to the main islands. All you have to do now is to figure a way for your army to the main island. Fortunately Jap has a lot of harbours, and you have TACs and INTs.

From here on you can bomb their fleet, aisports or whatever you want to get rid off, before the invasion. With Hokkaido and Kyushu in your hands you can play the air force game. I made wonderful experiencs with invasions against the west coast, there are good harbors.

 

[DeclaredYuppie]

...

Sadly, particularly in TFH, NAT CHI (AI) in a standard 1936 start is hopeless against Japan and will collapse within 2-3 months without a huge amount of assistance. So, you either have to *really* distract Japan in the mainland, or deliver a knock out blow to the home islands as quickly as possible.

Not really no, they will try to take back Taiwan though, but once you have your army on Taiwan(or better gather your reserve armys at a chinese harbour close to Taiwan) it is pretty much over (don't forget the INT). Build a second harbour in Taiwan, move your army inwards and wait for the Jap counterattack. You should be able to kill parts of their fleet with airstrikes alone (that is the part where you need the TACs and INT for, NAV may be better but it should be enough)...

Good to know. I guess it's a little disappointing to know their navy can be side-stepped that easily.

I did another attempt last night and got some more forces pre-positioned in East Africa before the war. I was able to get ~4 Corps (2 LARM, 1 MOT, 1 INF) to north China and also some Marines and Mountain Corps into southern China after about 2 months of shuttling. Also discovered that Japan will accept a truce with me and Nationalist China at that point alone! They'll still take Shanxi and I'm not sure what the rules are for them breaking the truce, but I might take it since I'm not sure if I want to take Japan as a puppet (I mean it's probably 100% beneficial to me so I should).

And yeah I really hate watching the CHI AI with fog of war off. 2 Years of them running shoddy militias and infantry around the country away from the borders they need to defend, and instead parking them in central Asia to defend nothing. I'm assuming they never perform better.

 

[SirArthur]

but I might take it since I'm not sure if I want to take Japan as a puppet (I mean it's probably 100% beneficial to me so I should).

I'm not sure about the consequences. There are reports of Nat China declaring war at Japan at some point. I also hate Japan as an ally and so I made it a habit to conquer them to avoid all kind of unforseen consequences.

 

[DeclaredYuppie]

I'm not sure about the consequences. There are reports of Nat China declaring war at Japan at some point. I also hate Japan as an ally and so I made it a habit to conquer them to avoid all kind of unforseen consequences.

Yeah I wanted to avoid ally'ing them in part to avoid the chance of them pulling America into a war with the Axis, but I'm assuming if I puppet them that'll probably break whatever bit of scripting that might cause that.

And if Nat China's going to declare war on Japan later, I feel like I'm going to need to get some improved AI mods. I'd rather they help me in a war with Russia, and see if they can cause chaos for them storming through Mongolia and Sinkiang.

 

[marxianTJ]

There are some mods that make NAT chi not a push over for Japan.

The reason they did this is because in a lot of 36' starts with a standard "active" civil war, NAT CHI was breaking Japan - it basically caused the Japanese AI to commit everything to China, forever. So the Pacific war was nonexistent. So they just made Nat. Chi. a walk over for the Japanese AI in 36' starts. If you play on a later start date Nat. Chi. puts up a fight - there are also tons of mods that sex that whole area up quite a bit.