[Suggestion] 2.2 POP Growth rework

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ShaTiK

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After reading a lot of thoughts about current POP growth mechanics and its weirdness and its flaws, I thought about the one change to POP that would not require a total rework, but I think could help. But before that let’s talk about problems, at least as I (and other people at this forums) saw them.

Firstly, most of the issues are about multi-species empires. When we are talking about strictly single-species empire most of the issues are non-present. But that’s not the majority of the empires present in the game, nor (that’s my own speculation here) they are a majority of the player empires either. Conquer all you can, but usually player conquers planets, systems AND POPs and it’s usually overall beneficial to keep the new POPs rather than try to kill or displace them.

The problems start to arise when we have a lot of various species in the empire. First issue comes from the fact that game chooses which POP to grown in a very arbitrary way. Well, there is a weight system that determines these things, but maybe it’s a balance issue, maybe it’s a bug, but currently game behaves in a very erratic fashion in regards to choosing which POP to grow, seemingly ignoring habitability. This makes zero sense and actually could hurt an empire due to POP deciding to grow in a very ill-suited environment, 20% habitability for example. Funny enough that’s not that big of a deal, since this whole thing could be fixed with a few tweaks to weight system. And there are already a few mods that fix the weights so the aforementioned case is alleviated to a degree, as far as I could tell.

The much bigger issue is the fact there is only one slot for growth at any planet, plus one for robotic pops and one for declining pop. So, at any given time, only a single POP could be growing, being assembled or be in decline. Overall, this system is a nice middle ground between over complexity and simplicity. But this system works very well only when it’s about a single-species empire. Your POPs are growing, there are factors to this growth, empire-wide, planetary and species-specific – all is well. You have a lot of colonies that create immigration pull – fine, this pull basically takes some of the growth in the core worlds are redistributes it. This system is quite neat, makes sense and, in general, working nicely. Same with robots – usually they are an axillary population of sorts. Assembly speed for standard empire is not great, 50 months for a single POP, but that’s fine. Once a robot POP is finished, the next begin its production, nothing too complex is needed here, at least when we are talking about default robots and default empires.

This whole system starts to creak, however, the second we add a new species to our empire. Because any given planet have only one slot for growing, so the game have to choose which new POP to grow. And for the time being this POP would be the only one growing at this planet. [Side note – right now vanilla game tries to create this absurd artificial equilibrium of species on every planet. So it’s choosing POP to grow with regards to this species representation in empire’s demographics and tries to ‘fix’ it. This is insanity by itself, I get that devs wanted to ‘liven’ up the empires with various species. But vanilla balance leads to some truly bizarre configurations, like founding species having LESS POP in 100 years of game time compared to the start of the game, for reference https://forum.paradoxplaza.com/foru...es-decided-to-commit-auto-extinction.1137665/].

So, say a planet chose to grow a new species POP – and it does so with the practically the same speed as any other species! This looks exceptionally good when this new species grows at the same speed as a species that makes up 98% of the empire. And again, I kinda get what devs are going for – if we consider things ‘realistically’, for new species to have even a noticeable representation, they would have either a immense immigration push (maybe they are refugees, fleeing from homeworld for any reason) or they have to be basically rabbits – which can’t happen due to the lack of a trait ‘rabbit’ (+500% growth speed, -80% efficiency in every job). But that’s a lame reason to have artificially inflated growth rate for minority species. This might slow growth for any ‘underrepresented’ species in the empire to negligible values when compared to the ‘main’ one – but why on earth or any other planet species with a population of 10 billion should be growing at the same speed as a specie with 1 million?

This whole thing can’t work nicely, as the system exists right now, of course. Say, we have one founding specie and one new, minor one. And say we have this ‘new’ system for growth, so now this new specie’s growth rate is adjusted according to ‘more reasonable’ factors. Now its rate of growth is way less compared to our founding species, few times less in fact. But we still have single slot for growing, so this new pop would basically prevent any new POPs from growing!

This whole thing is stemming from one basic concept – right now any POP have a single binary status. I’ll call them active and passive. Passive is POP basic status – he is here, alive, well and functioning, have strata and all that. He is active when POP in the process of growing or declining.

So here is my suggestion - toss this whole binary story with POP status and instead have every pop to be eligible for growth and decline all the time. Right now while the POP is growing he have this progression from 0 to 100 – just leave it as is, but let’s call it ‘POP health’. So as soon as a new POP is born via natural growth or immigration-induced one – he starts at this 0 health. Then he grows, depending on various factors, until he reaches 100. At which point this POP is ‘done’ and a new one of the same species could be born. The key feature is that any POP should have this ‘health’ – representing the ‘fullnes’ of a single POP. A POP is an abstract for game design purposes an any case, but my idea is to change POP from binary ‘he is-he isn’t’ to more linear ‘form small to big’. This ‘health’ would affect this POP work efficiency, naturally, in the same linear fashion – 10% ‘healthy’ POP would provide only 10% efficiency.

One could argue that this system would be too much complexity for the sake of complexity. I think that in the current state of the POP growth mechanics multi-species empires are suffering from this ‘POP growth slot’ system too much. And proposed change would be able to fix it, and add a new set of mechanics for POP interactions, like how an orbital bombardment would sheer this ‘health’ for any POP, or how a POP could go into steady decline instead of, again, binary ‘POP is stable as rock-POP is declining’.

As for the performance – I honestly don’t think it would strain the game much, since every single POP in the game already have a set of specific feature (most notably their ethics, faction etc), so it’s not like game already doesn’t keep track of a certain set of parameters for every POP in the galaxy. The constant change in this ‘POP health’ is also not that much of an issue, since it wouldn’t be changing every month for every POP under normal circumstances. Plus we retain key features of the POP mechanics as a hole – individual POP species traits, ethics, strata and such. Demographics interface would have to be changed, naturally, but that’s small thing compared to the whole thing.

I’m sure this idea is not a new one. But I think it would go along very well with the new planetary economics. And, devs showed in 2.2 that they are willing to make some very big changes to the core game mechanics – thing that I was not aware of. I was not a fan of old tile system, but I was sure that it was here to stay. And to my delight it was changed into something much better. So here is hoping that POP growth mechanics could undergo some nice changes too.

Or maybe my idea is terrible and I’m completely missing the point, that’s always an option. Curious to hear what others might think about it.
 

kabill

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I don't think there needs to be a major change to how pop growth works. Ultimately, the problem seems to boil down to the curious decision to insist on over-weighting of minority species. To illustrate, in comparison with the alternative many folks ask for (i.e. concurrent pop growth).

E.g. Say you have two species on a planet, A (20 pops) and B (10 pops). A grows 50% faster than B.

With pops growing sequentially, you should grow 3 of species A for every 1 of species B (species A outnumbers B by double, plus 50% faster growth weighting, making ratio of 3:1). So growing 8 new pops, you'd on average expect 6 of species A and 2 of species B. Assuming 3 growth per month and 100 growth to grow a pop:
- Species A takes 6*(100/(3*1.5)) = 133.3 months
- Species B takes 2*(100/3) = 66.7 months
- For a total of 200 months

With pops growing at the same time, with growth split between them proportionately, Every month species A would get 2 growth (+50% = 3) and B would get 1 growth per month. So in 200 months (same time as above):
- Species A grows (200*3)/100 = 6 pops
- Species B grows (200*1))/100 = 2 pops

I.e. in the same time, growing pops concurrently produces the same outcome as growing pops sequentially (on average), so long as pop selection is weighted by proportion of species on a planet and growth modifiers. (Note that this is a bit of a simplification - minority species do need a slight increase in weighting as the sequential nature of selection means that every time a majority species pop grows the minority species is even less likely to be selected, resulting in long-run distortions in demographics. I'm not sure what the adjustment is exactly - someone better at maths would need to figure it out! - but I expect there is one which could make it work close enough to what you'd expect.)

I did think the migration system was also a problem, but now I think about it migration should work fine with this as well: migrant species should also be added to the selection pool, weighted by the proportion of natural to migration growth. I.e. with 3 natural and 3 migration growth, potential migrant pops would have the same total weighting as native pops. You'd grow twice as fast, but half those pops would be migrant species, which would give you the same distribution on average as separating natural and migration growth.

In other words, assuming the system otherwise works like I've assumed, then the only issue is the minority pop weighting. In practice, I'm not sure if the assumptions I've made here about how pop selection is worked out are correct (adjusting the defines to limit minority weighting and properly weight growth modifiers doesn't seem to fully address the issue, although I've not done any systematic testing). But my point is, in principle at least, the basic setup of the pop growth mechanics are sound. They are just - in my opinion anyway - need some tweaking to work in an intuitive manner.
 

Arutar

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I.e. in the same time, growing pops concurrently produces the same outcome as growing pops sequentially (on average), so long as pop selection is weighted by proportion of species on a planet and growth modifiers.

I think that is a fair point. Both growing pops concurrently (like before Le Guin) or sequentially (like now) could work, if the growth modfiers would not be so borked.

The only advantage of growing pops concurrently would ofc be transparency. I.e. you could see when you get your next pop of species x, y and z (and the modifiers would also tell you why you get x and 2 times y before z).
 

ShaTiK

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While I was started writing a totally different thing , I stumbled upon this idea: why there is no POP growth bonus for existing POPs of the same species? Realistically the growth speed of ANY species should go up all the time - the more POPs this species have, the faster their growth rate. I mean, if a species decides to grow and they have space - the bigger the initial number of people, the greater the growing number of people. And it would only get bigger and bigger. Look at our own real life planet and it's demographics (it's a lot more complicated, but still). At the same time that would just wreck the game balance, by the midgame galaxy would be filled with POP of all kinds. Every planet would have up their limits, and the rest (the result of planetary growth when there is no place to live and work would be at this point transformed into emigration) would be moving all the time all over the galaxy, looking of the least crowded places and empires WOULD have to enact all sorts of POP growth limiters to stop this madness.
This would be a curious galaxy indeed, I must admit, and quite logical, when you think about it. Empires need a lot of POPs for workslots, building slots and all that. So for quite some time any empire really wants to increase its workforce. But there is a limit on that - number of planets, districts, habitats and so on. So, for quite some time the whole galaxy would be this ever-increasing pan-galactic swarm of all sorts of biological locusts, with only one goal - to expand. But at some point the growth rates would become so insanely high, the empires would have to stop it. Or to wage deadly wars on their neighbors. Killing billions, both their own and enemy citizens. Resulting in a bit less crowded galaxy..
I guess I found the reason why devs haven't included this kind of bonus in the first place. Well, I must admit, this idea of linear POP growth bonus sounds quite fun, to me at least.

To get back to the initial idea, thought. I'm not talking about just concurrent vs consequential POP growth models - I'm talking about making the POP mechanics are a whole more active. So that POP - and not one at a time - could gradually move from the planet, while still retaining some productivity. If, say, there is a much better one in terms of habitability or some other factors. In terms of overall efficiency this makes no differences, whether POP would move out at once or if he would do it gradually. It would make immigration and every specie growth much more clear though - in that it would be this particular POP is moving out from planet A to planet B. Although now that I think about it, this model would require quite a lot of calculations on a monthly basis for A LOT of POPs across the entire galaxy. I want to make a point that Victoria 2 had a amazing economy and POP model and the game worked fine, but I have to remind myself that devs said that the whole economy model in that game was done by a sole person and when we left the company nobody really knew how it really worked. This, and the fact that more often than not vanilla POPs would do a lot of shenanigans that could be defined as fun by an observer, but were not fun for the player.
So, maybe, in the end, just fix the weights.. Pity, thought, there are a lot of fun stuff you could do with POPs in Stellaris, as far as I could see.
 

kabill

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My point was only that I don't think we really need a more complex system than we have at the moment. Sequential pop growth is a good approximation of what should happen, with the added advantage of maximising growth (rather than splitting it between lots of different species, in essence killing pop growth entirely). A more complex system certainly could work. I'm just not personally persuaded by the necessity of it.

While I was started writing a totally different thing , I stumbled upon this idea: why there is no POP growth bonus for existing POPs of the same species? Realistically the growth speed of ANY species should go up all the time - the more POPs this species have, the faster their growth rate. I mean, if a species decides to grow and they have space - the bigger the initial number of people, the greater the growing number of people. And it would only get bigger and bigger. Look at our own real life planet and it's demographics (it's a lot more complicated, but still). At the same time that would just wreck the game balance, by the midgame galaxy would be filled with POP of all kinds. Every planet would have up their limits, and the rest (the result of planetary growth when there is no place to live and work would be at this point transformed into emigration) would be moving all the time all over the galaxy, looking of the least crowded places and empires WOULD have to enact all sorts of POP growth limiters to stop this madness.
This would be a curious galaxy indeed, I must admit, and quite logical, when you think about it. Empires need a lot of POPs for workslots, building slots and all that. So for quite some time any empire really wants to increase its workforce. But there is a limit on that - number of planets, districts, habitats and so on. So, for quite some time the whole galaxy would be this ever-increasing pan-galactic swarm of all sorts of biological locusts, with only one goal - to expand. But at some point the growth rates would become so insanely high, the empires would have to stop it. Or to wage deadly wars on their neighbors. Killing billions, both their own and enemy citizens. Resulting in a bit less crowded galaxy..
I guess I found the reason why devs haven't included this kind of bonus in the first place. Well, I must admit, this idea of linear POP growth bonus sounds quite fun, to me at least.

I'm designing a mod at the moment that attempts to do this, i.e. scale pop growth in proportion with actual number of pops. There's a number of problems with it though:
- Growing at a static rate per colony (as in the vanilla game) allows the player to actively influence their species' growth significantly in an active fashion. This is particularly important in the early game, where pops are at a premium with many ways of substantially increasing growth speed. The ability to build a second colony and basically double your growth is rather mechanically important, and without that the early game especially will be much slower.
- If colonies don't give you free pop growth, there's actually fairly limited reasons to settle more colonies, at least in the short term. I.e. unless you're out of development space for a particular resource, there's no advantage to developing new colonies since they don't give you anything extra. (Long run that's not a problem, but it arguably detracts a lot from early game settlement as building up your capital is largely going to be more effective and efficient).
- There's possibly some scaling issues - starting pop count is very low, which implies either having slower growth right at the beginning of the game, or even faster growth later in the game (although I'm partially compensating for this by redesigning the game start with many more pops - this also addresses my previous point somewhat as your capital is more stretched at game start).
- Pop growth bonuses have a "rich get richer" effect (i.e. faster growth speed means more pops sooner which means even more growth sooner).

I haven't tried it in action yet, so I don't know how problematic these things are. But they are some concerns I have, and I can see the game mechanic reason for having static, colony-based growth even if it doesn't make as much sense as I would like.

To get back to the initial idea, thought. I'm not talking about just concurrent vs consequential POP growth models - I'm talking about making the POP mechanics are a whole more active. So that POP - and not one at a time - could gradually move from the planet, while still retaining some productivity. If, say, there is a much better one in terms of habitability or some other factors. In terms of overall efficiency this makes no differences, whether POP would move out at once or if he would do it gradually. It would make immigration and every specie growth much more clear though - in that it would be this particular POP is moving out from planet A to planet B.

In principle, I'd really like to see something dynamic like that. But I expect, with buildings tied to pop size, and with limited control over assigning pops to jobs, that it wouldn't work well with the rest of the economic system.
 

ShaTiK

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- Growing at a static rate per colony
But the idea that growth for ANY POP would take into the account the global number of POPs of this species. As far as colonies go - well, right now this is kinda the issue. Why my species should grow slower of faster depending on the number of planets? Housing, workplaces - sure, but actually vanilla system makes very little sense, now that I think of it. You should colonize when it's beneficial - right now it's beneficial because you get faster POP growth.
If this was not the case - the whole expansion would be different. You would basically be moving from one fully staffed planet to another. But, given that some planets have nice features, and the fact that you progress through the tech tree which enables you to have better production concentration, the expansion would be actually quite different. AI would never be able to use such a mod, sadly. But I'm really curious to see how the game would be.
As for the scaling and 'rich get richer' - well, that's the nature of it. Start of the game is slow, midgame is fast and endgame is all about fixing rampant overpopulation. But everyone, for quite some time, would be the same, actually. Rapid breeders, active use of Food edict and policies would increase POP count a lot, sure, but I think that in that way 'rich get richer' would be compensated by the fact that everyone grows faster and faster. And you still need CG, food and housing. So, it's not that 200 POP are 100% better then 100 POPs. Under some circumstances it's actually better to have 100.
Right now there is no way, as far as I can see, to make growth speed of a specie tied to this specie POP count - so for now you could make a approximation via tying growth speed to empire's POP count. Something would have to be done about immigration thought. Planets should be VERY strict about redirecting their growth to immigration, like 'have 3 homeless/unmeployed' - redirect 100% of the planet's growth into other planets via immigration mechanics
 

kabill

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If this was not the case - the whole expansion would be different. You would basically be moving from one fully staffed planet to another. But, given that some planets have nice features, and the fact that you progress through the tech tree which enables you to have better production concentration, the expansion would be actually quite different. AI would never be able to use such a mod, sadly. But I'm really curious to see how the game would be.

It would be different. I'm unsure if it will be better though. Need to try a game to see how it pans out. As regards the AI, I suspect it could. It would just need a bit of telling when would be a good time to expand to a new colony.

As for the scaling and 'rich get richer' - well, that's the nature of it. Start of the game is slow, midgame is fast and endgame is all about fixing rampant overpopulation. But everyone, for quite some time, would be the same, actually. Rapid breeders, active use of Food edict and policies would increase POP count a lot, sure, but I think that in that way 'rich get richer' would be compensated by the fact that everyone grows faster and faster. And you still need CG, food and housing. So, it's not that 200 POP are 100% better then 100 POPs. Under some circumstances it's actually better to have 100.

Sorry, my point there was only that growth modifiers get better over time. A species which grows 10% faster will in the long run be applying that +10% to more pops because they've grown sooner, so it's better than +10%. I don't know how much that would actually matter in the end. But it is a possible issue.

Right now there is no way, as far as I can see, to make growth speed of a specie tied to this specie POP count - so for now you could make a approximation via tying growth speed to empire's POP count.

The way I've done it is on a per-colony basis, with a -5% growth reduction per 5 biological pops under 100 (and +5% for every five biological pops above). It doesn't track per species, but as I've shown above, that doesn't matter (a low-density species will be picked less often, which is de facto its growth penalty). With minority pop weighting off, that gives you a more or less "real" population growth based on total number of biological pops. Not sure how it interacts with migration though - setting up a controlled test for this is a lot of work :(