Strategic resources and reserves: a proposed change of the economic model

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Chehaut

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Part 1: an Introduction

I have played the game a few times and what strikes me is that the need to secure resources seems to limit itself to oil in the late game and to a lesser extent Rubber, Iron, Coal and Electricity (the latter two mainly because the demand grows explosively). The biggest challenge is currently to scale up production as fast as possible. I don't find any challenge to secure strategic resources. In reality there were many challenges for countries to secure strategic resources : a raw material was limited, one country had a monopoly on a certain product or there is a rapid change of raw materials needed due to the development of new technologies. Suddenly a raw material is no longer that important and your economy is crashing vs. an economy is booming because they sit on a 'hidden gem' (such as with the oil in the Arab countries in the 20th century).
This is too simplified in the game, everyone has access to all means to bring the economy to unprecedented heights. All that is still needed is to scale up production and incorporate the few states you need for oil and rubber. A tactic that I use is to colonize Celebes early (which is possible regardless of which country I play) and then use Celebes as a springboard to conquer East Borneo and New Guinea (Oil and Rubber secured!).

In a few subsequent writings I want to provide a few improvements to make this system more challenging and interesting.


Part 2: fertilizer and food securtity

The 19th and 20th centuries were characterized by enormous population growth. This population growth had never been possible without the substantial developments in the fields of agriculture and fertilizers. However, this did not go without a struggle there was a huge demand for different raw materials needed for the production of fertilizers.
This is insufficiently expressed in the game. In the beginning you generally build Livestock Ranches to keep up with demand. By the time your fertilizers get tight, the Chemical Plants kick in. To keep the Chemical Plants running, you are mainly dependent on Sulfur, Iron and Oil. Apart from Oil, the other two products are plenty available. You can generally produce more than enough fertilizer. In my current game as the United States I only have to use 15% of the Sulfur Mine Slots to produce enough Sulfur. It is therefore primarily a matter of ramping up production and much less a matter of securing resources.
In reality, at least until the beginning of the 20th century, there was an intensive race going on to secure rescources that were needed for Fertilizer. The Livestock Ranches did not deliver enough fertilizer at the beginning of the 19th century. To supplement the shortages, the very scarce guano was used. Guano was mainly produced by Peru, so Peru experienced a period of rapid economic growth and stability. At the same time, this was also a curse, because the supply was very limited and became exhausted or fought over. Gradually, other sources such as Phosphate Rock in Morocco and Saltpeter (Chile, Peru and Bolivia) became important. Potassium (Saskatchewan and Belarus) was also used. So it was not as simple as building enough Chemical Plants. Several wars were fought for these resources such as the Chincha Islands War and the War of the Pacific. The United States claimed every island where bird droppings were found and France secured the Phosphate Rock Production in Morocco.

In short: without fertilizer no food security, without food security no stability and no growth without stability. In my opinion, a lack of food security should also influence the Birth- and Mortality Rates, Radicalization, Party Clout and so on. Food security also brings me to the third part: strategic reserves. I think that a dynamic of having to secure some resources by force or by trade should be more important for a lot more products to keep things more interesting.


Part 3: strategic reserves

To secure food security you should be able to build up strategic reserves. An example of this are the resources needed for war such as Ammunition, Arms and Artillery. The production of these goods is generally not profitable and if the war has breaks out your production falls short because production is not prepared for wartime demand. My current solution for this is to subsidize a large production of these resources so that I don't have a sudden raise in costs or a lack of supply when a war breaks out and I mobilize my army.
In this case, it would be more logical to construct a strategic reserve with which you can increase the demand in peacetime to build up a stock so you can absorb the increased demand during a war. For example, you could set a minimum price from where a certain product is purchased as a strategic reserve and a maximum price from where a certain product is added to supply side of the market out of the strategic reserves. The prices will fluctuate again when the reserves are no longer supplemented or when the reserves are exhausted.
The same also seems logical to me for food, but those reserves should also gradually run out due to the spoilage of products. Perhaps something like that should also apply to war products because they are outdated.
It would also be logical for other products such as coal and oil to have a strategic reserve so that it is possible to absorb blows from, for example, suddenly set embargos or shortages. Electricity of Transportation, on the other hand, are not logical as a strategic reserve. In addition, I also have difficulty with the global presence of resources in a single market (or in this case a global availability of reserves), more about that in the next part. Maybe capturing a certain strategic reserve of production site could become a wargoal in dire circumstances.


Part 4: localized markets with their own supply, demand and reserves

The way in which the market is set up is that every product that is produced is currently globally available for that market. I would rather see that overseas areas (at least partly) use its own (colonial) market that is integrated to a certain extent in the market of the 'market owner'. An example of this is the Cultuurstelsel in the Netherlands where the farmers in the Dutch East Indies were obliged to use 20% of their Arable Land for products that were in demand in the "main market" of the Netherlands. In combination with the aforementioned food security this could also lead to food scarcity in the Indonesian market because local food production comes under pressure. This gives you a trade -off: you can optimize production in a certain market for the main market, but as a trade off you may have a problem with food production in another market. Which in the worst case could see radicalization or separatism as a result. You might be able to compensate for this by selling food back at a high price, but that can be unpopular. With this dynamic you can also simulate the situation that lead to the Boston Tea Party (although that is before the timeline of Victoria 3). Another problem that you solve with this is the global availability of electricity which I think can be better portrayed by a system with local markets within a larger global (colonial) market. The trade between these internal markets could also be disturbed by intercepting convoys and improved with the construction- or use of the Suez- or the Panama channel.
Having local stocks of resources could also have an impact on where a certain product is produced and in supply or demand. If you have oil, this must first be transported to the market where the oil is used with convoys. This also creates a certain price dynamic around Supply and Demand in the internal market or maybe local shortages or challenges.


Part 5: heating

The latest that intrigues me is the absence of seasonal demand for certain products. I would like to see the need for heating have a (seasonal) influence on the wellbeing of Pops as well as have some other impacts. For example: the Netherlands (my own country) is primarily known for its polders and the gaining of new land. Less known is that the Netherlands has largely been excavated for its own energy requirement before better solutions were available. The product with which the energy requirement was resolved? Peat is the answer. Huge areas of agricultural land were lost due to the winning of peat in "veen" areas. This created large lakes in the Netherlands that were later reclaimed as polders when the Netherlands started using other products to heat themselves.
Other products that could be used for this are wood, coal and perhaps oil. I think Heating Demand gives an extra dimension that is to this day an issue (at least in Europe). You could also spread the demand for heating over the entire year, then you will not get any crazy fluctuations in prices (which could also be taken care of if strategic reserves get implemented).


Part 6: something salty is missing

Salt it is. I believe it is one of the most important resources missing. Salt has many uses, for example it could be a way to preserve the Food strategic reserve to give it a longer lifespan before spoilage. There are probably some others uses. I get that not every product can be a seperate thing, but I'm really missing the salt.
 
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McSacy4418

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Full disclosure that I didn't read the full post but

A) This is better suited for the suggestions forum.
B) If your opening move is to colonize locations for goods that won't be relevant for decades it's hardly a fair critique that there isn't a challenge to secure strategic resources.
 
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Chehaut

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Full disclosure that I didn't read the full post but

A) This is better suited for the suggestions forum.
B) If your opening move is to colonize locations for goods that won't be relevant for decades it's hardly a fair critique that there isn't a challenge to secure strategic resources.
Doesn't that confirm my point? One or two early moves and you'll have virtually no problem securing resources for the rest of the game. For oil I sometimes need a few extra states depending on which country I play but otherwise there is little challenge securing resources.

If the AI produced and traded oil, even taking states wouldn't be necessary. The problem in my games is that AI isn't good at starting oil production most of the times.
 
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Oktobermensch

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No to stockpiles. Current system fixes the issue with previous one where stockpile fluctuations and weird way of resource distribution caused strange outcomes and the flaw currently is AI underproduction of resources they sit on, as opposed to flaws in the market.
I can see resources being tweaked and production rates for things adjusted accordingly, but none of it is structurally broken like in Vicky 2.
 
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Chehaut

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I get that the plan for the stockpiles isn't popular, but that was just one of the suggestions. Does the negative feedback also apply to the other parts?
 

Gui10

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I get that the plan for the stockpiles isn't popular, but that was just one of the suggestions. Does the negative feedback also apply to the other parts?
If you don't have resource scarcities, you are either playing countries with low populations or low economic growth. Playing Qing, I have basically been in a world conquest run since 1848 because I couldn't possibly seize resources quick enough to satiafy my industry while staying below the infamy limit after that. This is despite colonizing half of Africa and bruteforcing a quarter of the severe malaria states through Qings enormous population, colonizing Hokaido, Celebes, Guinea, seizing small countries in Central Asia, Korea and 2-3 from South East Asia to try to reduce the scarcities.

At some point, I annexed Brazil. My calculations from bringing its raw resources online were: "That has earned us another year. By that time, we need to have annexed the East India Company or we will not have enough Opium and Food, and then we will need to Annex Russia or we will run out of wood/hardwood/lead/iron/coal, and then East Europe or we will run out of oil".

Edit: Resource abundace is relative to population, SoL and construction industry. In a highly developed/populated/quickly developing country (as in 10k+ construction capacity), resources tend to become scarce quickly
 
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Oktobermensch

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If you don't have resource scarcities, you are either playing countries with low populations or low economic growth. Playing Qing, I have basically been in a world conquest run since 1848 because I couldn't possibly seize resources quick enough to satiafy my industry while staying below the infamy limit after that. This is despite colonizing half of Africa and bruteforcing a quarter of the severe malaria states through Qings enormous population, colonizing Hokaido, Celebes, Guinea, seizing small countries in Central Asia, Korea and 2-3 from South East Asia to try to reduce the scarcities.

At some point, I annexed Brazil. My calculations from bringing its raw resources online were: "That has earned us another year. By that time, we need to have annexed the East India Company or we will not have enough Opium and Food, and then we will need to Annex Russia or we will run out of wood/hardwood/lead/iron/coal, and then East Europe or we will run out of oil".

Edit: Resource abundace is relative to population, SoL and construction industry. In a highly developed/populated/quickly developing country (as in 10k+ construction capacity), resources tend to become scarce quickly
Your scarcity is artificially increased by your construction industry - the moment you stop you collapse the economy by drop in prices - not too dissimilar from real China.
 
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YellowGelni

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Op is right in there being plenty available ressources but imho the conclusions are wrong.

Vic3 rather models available ressources not historically exploited ressources (with quite some oddities). Together with its limited number of ressources there will be abstraction issues and overavailability early to mid game. These may be german sulphur being as good of a nitrate source as guano or ressources being more spread out than historical exploitation would suggest. But imho that is ok. Production chains are complex enough as is and available ressources should be determined by available deposits. Keep in mind that if in 1890 there is still coal available it is historically correct and good for gameplay since the economy is supposed to grow between 1890 and 1920.

The issue rather is tech progression, ai and abstraction choice. By 1870 I can extract most (every?) basic ressource with max efficeny (per slot not pop). So resources are either not scarce till 1900 or out of stock by 1905. The Ai is not competetiv. They will not contest africa to much so it belongs to the player who knows where the goodies are at. It further has lower production and is weak in a fight. Exaggerating the problem. System wise there is to much constructon, agriculture is virtually uncaped ect.

Now to the points:
2) uncaped buildings. Historical europe had well developed agriculture with limited room for growth. In Vic 3 the world is pretty much Virgin land. And if quano were to be a hard cap players would simply rush the tech allowing them to get fertilizer out of thin air. Just like how you rush oil & rubber locations.

3) some storrage would be neat to store goods for hard times. Not sure if it is worth the effort to implement it. Vic2 storage was special...

4) No. Local markets are implemented already. Some internal need for convoys / transportation would be neat, maybe. But you request either something that is reasonably rationalized away by being abatracted by showing averages / being included in the price / production methodes. Or a rework of the systems core asumptions placing further strain on the already strugling performance for no gain.

5) No, heating is in the game. You can barely controll scalle production in 1 year. Just asume the price and consumption being the years average. More predictable and less taxing on the PC.

6) Not needed. It would be way to available and not lead to / be part of interesting production chains.