Its difficult to model strategic bombing properly because there is no great consensus about what it actually did! There are plenty of data showing how German industrial output rose until 1944, even during the most intensive strategic bombing campaign the world had known.... but of course there is no data to suggest what German output would have been without strategic bombing! We know that specific factories were rebuilt and returned to production rather quickly, but we also know that vast areas were literally laid waste and thousands killed... which must have had significant effect.
I suppose its how you look at the available facts and in this respect, like most other things, most people have their own beliefs and agendas. We do know that concentration on bombing specific industries does seem to have been more effective, and had this been maintained greater results might have been achieved (aircraft factories or oil plants or ballbearings or whatever). However, should specific targeting be available then of course it would be exploited. Someone would calculate the most effective type of attack against a particular type of target and then this is all that would be bombed... regardless of political constraints and high command squabbles that IRL impared the efficiency of all organisations.
Strangely enough, even if you believe that bombing didn't degrade industrial output as much as some believe, other side-effects may have been just as important, such as bringing the Luftwaffe to battle and shooting down the best pilots and vast numbers of planes, together with the proportion of the armaments industry producing nothing but AA guns and ammunition, plus the crews and organisation to run them.
Incidentally, all those interested in strategic bombing should read "Bomber Command" by Max Hastings. Highly recommended objective reading!