So I finally found the battle display or whatever its called (thanks Commander!).
EUREKA! Now you can learn everything about AoD because that is where the results of everything happening is visible. Well, I call it Battle Display because it displays the red/green battle bar. But opening that reveals the mystery that is AoD.
Is the formula the equivalent of (1 - (sqrt(8*x+1)-1)) / (2*x)?
Oh my Gosh! Lord, please let me never read such a horrible formula again when I'm only playing my favorite game. Well, at this point I radically disagree... I like a simpler equation: "+1 province taken = all OK".
What the heck does stacking penalty matter? If you win battle, it is totally OK. In fact, it becomes extremely desirable as a side effect of a powerful force. If you are not getting a good size stacking penalty, you simply aren't using your army very much. Instead of working with ridiculous square roots, people should be concentrating on increasing angles of attack, and "YES" increasing total attack size (READ STACKING PENALTY) to win that battle the quickest way and with least loss of org and strength to yourself.
The only time when stacking penalty matters in so much as you should actively do something about it (or make a decision what forces to commit based solely on resultant stacking penalty) is with air craft where having more gives you unfair stacking penalty and the enemy none. But if enemy land forces (or ships) are getting stacking penalty then your bigger stacking penalty to have a bigger force so you win is an inconsequential matter. Much better that one concerns themselves with the weather than the stacking penalty your attack force will produce.
Anyway, that is were you will find "lack of supply" if that condition exists... and that is something player should scrutinize. But I ignore stacking penalty as much as I ignore the obvious like a 1-ton pick up only being able to haul 1/10 of a 10-ton truck. It is a consequence of the force you gathered... and hardly anything to be afraid about. If you reduce stacking penalty by dropping out units you would weaken your attack.
This has been proven with amphibious assaults using 9 marines that far exceed the allowed limit and penalties are up at about -90 total (for EVERY marine division). But 9 marines on one attack using different angles of attack still perform far better that 3 marines x 3 attacks when the target is big (perhaps 6-9 defenders).
It seems what all this complex math is missing is a concept every experienced player is aware of: "Having lots of extra org to soak up hits" or what I describe as having "Oomph." Oomph doesn't show up in any math calculation.... but play enough and you soon realize why having BBs or CAs in a CV battle is so important (the BBs and CAs increase the org to soak up hits). B
ut the math would wrongly figure that you only increased stacking penalty because the BB or CA, out of range, doesn't even fire. But strangely, they help significantly win the battle.
And bigger armies (attacks with bigger stacking penalty) simply have so much extra Oomph that stacking penalty is compensated for... .... .... in spite of all the precise mathematics that would show otherwise and conclude there is the optimum size over which more force yields less results. That simply is math with flawed results as regards the reality of AoD battles.
In AoD (especially Land Combat) the LAW is actually quite simple: "THE MOSTEST IS THE BESTEST". Yes, all the negative modifiers do matter, but they can all be over powered by simply adding more units - except for OVER COMMAND (EDIT: and weak units or units low on org) as those extra units actually lessen your attack.
Don't get me wrong, I don't advise just adding the mostest. One should add what is needed for an efficient win... and experience will decide exactly what that is.
But this experience is best gotten by watching the Battle Bar (and seeing what is the result of committing an additional unit or stack) as regards the Red Line... and not using math to calculate isolated parts of a most complex whole.
If the original designers had wanted us to get seriously into math to play this game I think they probably would have given a short cut to a calculator interface. But instead they designed the most phenomenal visual display that is calculating every math fact pertaining to every battle. Why re-invent the wheel when the math facts driving AoD are staring you in the face?