Something wrong with fabricate claim discovery chance on latest beta

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shaldon

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May 12, 2004
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I am seeing 0.5, 0.7, 0.9 monthly discover chances in my latest 1.5 beta game, but over the 12 months taken to fabricate, I am discovered almost every time.

That can't be right? Or am I missing something? The 0.5% monthly chance should give 6% over the year. But I've fabricated 5 claims now at those odds and 4 of them got discovered...

I'm Hansa, fabricating on Mecklenberg and Oldenburg. Good job I'm allied to Austria, Brandenburg and England and none of them care or I'd be screwed. Every other German minor is at 90 AE against me...

I know the high AE has been widely reported although I hadn't realised the extent (30 AE per discovered claim for neighbours??). I have not so much problem with the actual AE, but the discovery odds appear misleading and make it much harder keep a game going.