so if Japan opted for USSR instead of US

[darth254]

would the USSR still have come out on top?

I know the Soviets kind of spanked the Japans in the pre-WW2 skirmishes and the overall value of the Far East is not on the same level as that of the western Soviet Union, so it's not as if the Japanese operations would be as critical as the Germans. However, they still could have diverted Soviet troops.

so is it likely or unlikely that a coordinated Nazi Germany/Japanese effort toppled the USSR?

 

[Daelyn75]

would the USSR still have come out on top?

I know the Soviets kind of spanked the Japans in the pre-WW2 skirmishes and the overall value of the Far East is not on the same level as that of the western Soviet Union, so it's not as if the Japanese operations would be as critical as the Germans. However, they still could have diverted Soviet troops.

so is it likely or unlikely that a coordinated Nazi Germany/Japanese effort toppled the USSR?

I think the war with China would need to be complete by then, or the Japanese wouldn't have been able to throw that many soldiers at the Soviets. I do know that in every HOI game I play that I do finish China off, then war with the Soviets once Barbarossa begins, the Soviet Union cannot deal with both fronts and collapses. As to HOI IV, I cannot say. However, I assume the same thing would happen. It's only logical if I throw in 1.5 - 2 million soldiers at them in the east, that along with the Germans in the West with their 3+ million that they would fall within a few years.

In real life I'd say the same thing would have taken place.

 

[mursolini]

Depends on how much Soviet troops Japan would really take. Soviet army group in manchuria was more or less equal to Japanese troops on Manchuria, most of the time, with late 1941-early 1942 being only exeption.

If Japan could take out 2-4 millions of Soviet troops, SU could lose. If SU would be able to blitz thrugh Manchuria in 1942-1943 instead of huge failed counter-offencives in 1942-1943, situation could be even worse for Axis.

However, I assume the same thing would happen. It's only logical if I throw in 1.5 - 2 million soldiers at them in the east, that along with the Germans in the West with their 3+ million that they would fall within a few years.

In real life I'd say the same thing would have taken place.

Not really. SU did have the troops manning those regions even in the worst moments on 1942. Japanese army was severely underequiped and undertrained. Infrastructure would force Japan to go thrugh very narrow Trans-Siberian rail road, which makes region very defencible, After towns around Chinese border were lost. Soivet also wasn`t that close to collapsing, so it is not obvious that Japan could muster enough troops to actually make a difference.

 

[Secret Master]

Given what we know of the trade and production system, is there any logic to attacking the Soviets now? Taking Siberia won't net Japan the oil she needs.

Or will that not even matter if you fuel synthetic oil factories with resources in Siberia?

 

[mursolini]

Given what we know of the trade and production system, is there any logic to attacking the Soviets now? Taking Siberia won't net Japan the oil she needs.

Or will that not even matter if you fuel synthetic oil factories with resources in Siberia?

Depends on IF Japan has to fight US next.

 

[Secret Master]

Depends on IF Japan has to fight US next.

I figure it's coming sooner or later if Japan joins the war against the Soviets. Unless Japan isn't in the same faction as Germany. Then we get in a whole weird alternate history where Japan doesn't sign the applicable treaties with Germany and Italy (thus not joining the Axis faction in game terms), but is a co-belligerent against the Soviets.

Then again, if Japan attacks the Soviets without joining the Axis, and Germany wins, the US might have its hands full helping the British in Europe. A second war against Japan might not be a priority.

I guess we'll see how World Tension and the US AI works as Japan.

 

[Opanashc]

How would Japan supply enough troops, to tie down any more of the Red Army, then it did? Remember - Russia has bad roads. If you think roads in western Russia are bad - realize, that western Russia is the MOST developed part. From Vladivostok to Irkutsk its 2285 km in a straight line. From Brest to Moscow its 996 km. IJA was outclassed in infantry weapons, tanks and artillery by the Red Army. They were NOT going to make any substantial headway, except to deny LL via Pacific Ocean to the SU (~50% of total LL).

 

[ConjurerDragon]

How would Japan supply enough troops, to tie down any more of the Red Army, then it did? Remember - Russia has bad roads. If you think roads in western Russia are bad - realize, that western Russia is the MOST developed part. From Vladivostok to Irkutsk its 2285 km in a straight line. From Brest to Moscow its 996 km. IJA was outclassed in infantry weapons, tanks and artillery by the Red Army. They were NOT going to make any substantial headway, except to deny LL via Pacific Ocean to the SU (~50% of total LL).

Japan should be aware of the infrastructure problems in Siberia. After all their army had been there after WW1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_intervention_in_Siberia

 

[D Inqu]

Japan should be aware of the infrastructure problems in Siberia. After all their army had been there after WW1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_intervention_in_Siberia

Which is likely contributed to their decision not to go ahead the northern strategy.

 

[scroggin]

It will be interesting if germany takes the option of befreinding china rather than japan. That could put japan in a very different situation. Trade with the allies would be possible. Little effort would be needed for japans navy. And provided japan doesnt horrify the democracies with its actions in china, they could build a powerful army to attack Russia.
How would the USA relate to a Japan that wasnt a threat at sea and was fighting communists?

HOI4 could give us some very unusual outcomes especially in multiplayer games.

 

[ConjurerDragon]

It will be interesting if germany takes the option of befreinding china rather than japan. That could put japan in a very different situation. Trade with the allies would be possible. Little effort would be needed for japans navy. And provided japan doesnt horrify the democracies with its actions in china, they could build a powerful army to attack Russia.
How would the USA relate to a Japan that wasnt a threat at sea and was fighting communists?

HOI4 could give us some very unusual outcomes especially in multiplayer games.

Historically the US perceived Japan as a possible rival in the Pacific and naval threat already long before Pearl Harbour. That´s why Plan Orange was created
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Orange

What japanese player would want to wait with attacking an Axis-China until the US is at war with Germany, or claim to not support Germany if it does the same as Finland and fight an "independant" war against the Soviets that just by chance happens while the germans invade the USSR?
If they do I think the US would do the same as they historically did - they would embargo Japan. And oil is far easier available in dutch insulinde than in soviet siberia.

 

[Opanashc]

And oil is far easier available in dutch insulinde than in soviet siberia.

Not to mention, how hard that oil is to get, and how far west it is from Japan.

 

[Loke]

If original Axis exist - Only reason for Japan to hit Russia would be to help Germany. If Germany falls Japans Asian mainland would sooner or later be flooded by Russians like what happened in 1945.

 

[Denkt]

Im pretty sure it is very hard to avoid war with US. If you don't attack them they will eventually go down in their national focus and get the ability to declare war on you.
You can go to war with Soviet union but US will most likely come for you.

 

[ringhloth]

Historically the US perceived Japan as a possible rival in the Pacific and naval threat already long before Pearl Harbour. That´s why Plan Orange was created
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Plan_Orange

What japanese player would want to wait with attacking an Axis-China until the US is at war with Germany, or claim to not support Germany if it does the same as Finland and fight an "independant" war against the Soviets that just by chance happens while the germans invade the USSR?
If they do I think the US would do the same as they historically did - they would embargo Japan. And oil is far easier available in dutch insulinde than in soviet siberia.

The creation of a warplan doesn't mean a realistic expectation of war. The US had plans to go to war with most major countries, including the United Kingdom, in the 1930s, and I'm pretty sure we have plans to invade pretty much every country in existence today, just so we can take immediate action if something absurd happens.

 

[Porkman]

Which is likely contributed to their decision not to go ahead the northern strategy.

They didn't make a decision to end the Northern Strategy.

By 1936, they had actually shifted to a posture of getting the China Manchukuo situation settled and no longer trying to separate North China. They were terrified of the Soviets and didn't believe they could take them on if they had a hostile China behind them.

The war in China started and that forced the Japanese to shift away from an Anti Soviet focus. It wasn't a decision as much as them being forced by circumstance. If they had had the freedom to choose, they would have kept the status quo with China and fortified vs. the Soviet Union.

 

[ConjurerDragon]

The creation of a warplan doesn't mean a realistic expectation of war. The US had plans to go to war with most major countries, including the United Kingdom, in the 1930s, and I'm pretty sure we have plans to invade pretty much every country in existence today, just so we can take immediate action if something absurd happens.

Warplan Orange was created because Japan after the annexation of Korea, Manchuria (only formally independant as Manchukuo) and the former german colonies (Tsingtao in China, Carolines, Marianas and Marshall Islands) and the US after the annexation of the Kingdom of Hawaii and the Phillipines were direct rivals in the Pacific and for China´s market.
The warplan involving the UK was needed because of the Anglo-Japanese alliance
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_color-coded_war_plans#Multilateral_war_plans
and even Canada as a member of the Commonwealth considered it to be a threat that this alliance might drag them into a war against the US on the side of Japan which lead to the end of that alliance in 1923
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Japanese_Alliance#Demise_of_the_treaty
So if Canada saw that risk I would not say that the US warplan was that farfetched as to be "something absurd".

 

[Evan05]

Looking at how much woods, mountains, and snow the Japanese would have trudged through when they were already experiencing fuel shortages to get to even moderately important Soviet cities, the Soviets had plenty of time to deal with the Germans. The only really important thing the Japanese could've done was occupy Vladivostok and the general area around it, effectively blocking the entirety of Soviet imports, exports, and industry on the Pacific coast.

 

[dav77-b]

Looking at how much woods, mountains, and snow the Japanese would have trudged through when they were already experiencing fuel shortages to get to even moderately important Soviet cities, the Soviets had plenty of time to deal with the Germans. The only really important thing the Japanese could've done was occupy Vladivostok and the general area around it, effectively blocking the entirety of Soviet imports, exports, and industry on the Pacific coast.

This would already cause extrem damage to Russia.

No americans food, weapons or trucks!

 

[ConjurerDragon]

This would already cause extrem damage to Russia.

No americans food, weapons or trucks!

Not no, but 50% less. There still was the arctic route to Murmansk and the Persian corridor:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lend-Lease#US_deliveries_to_the_USSR