Siege Rolls; Confirmation Bias my ARSE!!!

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Chaingun

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I didn't trust the source RNG implementation when I came to EU4, but I did test it empirically, and it converged to the mean one would expect. IIRC there's a "testrng" console command remaining from that, though I'm unsure if output means anything without knowing context.

The source RNG generates a 31 bit positive random integer or alternatively a floating point number in the range [0, 1[. However, there's a possibility for the programmer to use generated numbers in an erroneous way due to lack of high level random variable shaping functions in Clausewitz. I've seen nothing of that in dice roll code though since that is utterly simple. e.g. die_roll = random31uint % 6 + 1; (lazy almost linear approximation of one die).

I think the bigger issue is the fact pure RNG is used which will sometimes be unfair by its very nature. :) It would perhaps be cool to try something that adjusts the random variable's expected value to cancel out mean unbalanced series after some number of outcomes. Not my concern any more though, but I once read about some version of Civilization taking a similar intervention approach in battle outcomes to prevent players from feeling unlucky or feeling that the game cheats even though it doesn't. (Perhaps they simply reduced the probability of the really bad events for humans, can't recall.)
 
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Wizzington

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It's confirmation bias.

Hope this helps.
 
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Wizzington

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I have data that says otherwise. Just because you say so, doesn't make it so. Call me incredulous given the recent history of world leaders, bankers and various people in a position of authority throughout the world to not be honest. The only bias that I see that is confirmed is that rolling a "1" is more probable than a 1:14 chance and rolling a "14" is less than a 1:14 chance.
This is going no where ~ Peace out!

Truly, the oppression inherent to global politics finds its most poignant expression in the vicious lies of game developers regarding the siege dice rolls of AI armies.

One day we will all be free of the oppressive social order of the capitalist economic system and we can meet as equals, sharing truths long suppressed by the socio-economic elites and their cronies. On that blessed day I will reveal to you the secret signs and handshakes required to unlock the "golden dice" of EU4, allowing you to finally siege on equal terms with the filthy cheating illuminati AI.

Ooooooor you're just experiencing confirmation bias and is hella salty about it.

Who can say?
 
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Wizzington

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(PS: I can say and it's the one where you're blaming your failures on AI cheating)
 
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Wizzington

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So Wiz is illuminati, confirmed.

Man, if you didn't realize this ages ago you're not gonna survive the bayesian purges of 2018. I'm sorry.
 
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Wizzington

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The dice rolls are 100% the same between AI and not AI. There is no AI cheating in regards to dice rolls and there has never been any AI cheating in regards to dice rolls.

End of story.
 
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Wizzington

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Pfft, more like Byzantine purges. That's right, Blurple, I see you. Playing the long game. Taking the long odds, one might say.

Well, everyone who likes Byzantium *is* going to be purged, but that's more of a side thing really.
 
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Wizzington

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I... I... I mean come on! +3 Tolerance of the true faith and + 3 missionary strength in addition to the patriarchal authority bonuses?! How I am supposed to stay away from that?

Ever heard the term 'honeypot'?

No matter, you won't have to trouble yourself about it for long.
 
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Wizzington

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TL;DR: One time a developer said there was confirmation bias but they were wrong and looked dumb.

I mean, if you prove that the mersienne twister is biased in such a precisely specific way that somehow it always ends up giving favorable siege rolls to the AI in Europa Universalis 4, you're probably gonna make a whole lot of people look dumb.

I don't think it's very likely though.
 
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Wizzington

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On an other note, whilst still being in line with the threads theme:

I find it disturbing that AI tends to (as I see it) rival you more likely than other AI. Not a big test, but: (all in 1.18)
10 starts as Brandenburg: Bohemia rivals me 9 times.
10 starts as Austria: Bohemia Rivals Brandenburg 2 times.

There is no code that makes AI rival players more often. The way starting rivals are setup can be skewed by the fact that the player picks last, but it's not inherenty for or against you.
 
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Wizzington

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Anyone who can admit fault is cool in my book, so no worries. It's all good.
 
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